Is The Truth About Whether The Price Of Raw Materials Rises Or Stops, Or Whether It Is Positive Or Negative? We Need To Take A Rational View Of Market Behavior.

This week

The most notable is the proposal to stop production everywhere: in August 4th,

In August 6th, the Wujin, Haining, Tongxiang and Changshu warp knitting industry associations issued a joint stop production proposal; in August 6th, the Haining warp knitting Association issued an appeal to the upstream chemical fiber leading enterprises.

What is the reason for the frequent changes in the downstream weaving Market?

In August 6th,

Once again, he opened up high and broke through 7000 points at a stroke.

Nowadays, the price of PTA has been greatly improved.

Can only follow closely, continue to rise and rise.

In August 7th most of the mainstream manufacturers of polyester filament quotation continued to rise capricious.

As of August 7th, the price of polyester POY was 10660 yuan / ton, up 20% compared with the beginning of the year.

The sharp rise is concentrated in July 5th and is almost a daily price.

It is worth noting that the production of warp knitted fabrics is mainly concentrated in Haining, Zhejiang, Changshu, Fujian and Guangdong in Jiangsu.

The cut-off proposal of warp knitting industry also directly affects the stock price of the upstream polyester filament listed companies.

Recently, five major polyester filament companies listed in China (Tong Kun shares, new Feng Ming, Hengli shares, Hengyi petrochemical and Rongsheng petrochemical) have seen a continuous drop.

In response to the accusation of the downstream warp knitting industry, Yang Jianfei, the second largest polyester filament manufacturer in the world, said that the raising price of polyester filament is not a casual and unreasonable price increase, but a normal price increase on the basis of rising costs. Moreover, the price increase of the chemical fiber industry has already taken into account the tolerance of the downstream enterprises, and it is a cautious measure for.

First, the focus of international crude oil prices gradually lifted, in July 3rd, the US oil once broke the 75 US dollar mark, hitting a new high since November 2014.

Two, the price of Asian PX rose from 927.67-946.67 US dollars / ton in June 22nd to US $1080.67-1099.67 / ton in August 3rd, and PX was more dependent on imports. In the case of devaluation of RMB, its import cost rose sharply, and promoted the rapid rise of domestic PTA prices.

Three. PTA belongs to "crude fuel oil, naphtha aromatics -PTA-".

"Spinning, weaving, clothing" chain plays a connecting link.

From late June to early August, PTA futures rose sharply from a low of 5570 yuan / ton in June 20th to a high of 7066 yuan / ton in August 3rd.

Four, the second major raw materials, ethylene glycol import dependence is relatively high, the RMB continued to depreciate, which also means that the import costs continue to rise, plus 6-7 months ethylene glycol has been out of stock, resulting in ethylene glycol innovation, ethylene glycol also from the original 6700 points rushed to the current 7875 points;

Five, as of August 3rd, the cost of spot aggregate feed up again reached a new high of 8655 yuan / ton (excluding freight), which rose by 1481.3 yuan / ton compared with 7173.7 yuan / ton (excluding freight) in June 22nd, while polyester filament was FDY150D/96F, for example, the current price was 10350 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton compared with 9750 yuan / ton in June 22nd.

The current PTA futures rose 800 points on the three day, and the PTA price limit continued.

The upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain are significantly higher than those of polyester products, and the cost increase can not be effectively pmitted to the downstream. Production profits have been greatly compressed, polyester chips have been seriously damaged, polyester filament yarn products have reached the edge of losses, and polyester filament has entered a profit margin as a whole.

After polyester low speed growth period of 2015~2016, the polyester filament grew by 5.5% in 2017. However, the growth rate of all kinds of weaving production reached two digits. The continuity of polyester filament products was in short supply. However, polyester factories considered the adaptability of downstream fabrics to meet market demand. Therefore, the price adjustment of polyester filament in polyester factories is "cautious" at the same time, which is afraid of affecting the normal operation of downstream weaving.

It is impossible for the current polyester filament filament product to lose the edge and the whole state of a small profit.

Six, under the circumstance of devaluation of RMB and environmental protection, auxiliary materials of chemical products used in chemical fiber factories have risen. Even the paper tubes and cartons used in chemical fiber factories have been pushed up to varying degrees, and labor costs have increased. The speed of polyester production operation costs has risen in the past 10 years.

In view of the discontinued protest mentioned in the proposal, whether it is a warp knitting enterprise or a chemical fiber enterprise, it is indicated that the possibility of implementation is not great, and the preliminary estimate of the rate of discontinued production is 5% to 10%.

Tong Jun, director of Dong Jun, pointed out that the demand for warp knitting industry accounts for only 10% of the production of polyester filament. 90% of the demand is concentrated in knitted, woolen and industrial yarn industries. Even if all the warp knitting industry is shut down, the demand for polyester filament will only be 10%, which will hardly result in the decline of polyester filament price.

Experts in warp knitting industry pointed out that it is unreasonable to call for a stop production protest at this point in time.

This is mainly because, in the first place, September is the peak season of warp knitting industry. At this point, stopping production is like binding itself. Second, once an enterprise stops production, the bank will come and ask the enterprise to return the loan immediately. When the production season comes, the bank will not lend money. Third, many enterprises' orders are long, and once the production is stopped, the order is lost again. It is very difficult for the employees to resettlement after the production is stopped, and the production of the employees is also a problem at the end of the production. At the same time, the production can at least maintain a small profit or a small loss, and stop production is the total loss.

It is only temporary to hold up and stop production. How to better strengthen the right to speak in terms of bargaining is the most important.

Today's warp knitting

Still in the throes of pformation, small scale warp knitting enterprises are running on thin ice.

It is foreseeable that this kind of pain will continue in the future.