The Apparel Industry Slowed Down In The Fourth Quarter Of Last Year, And Many Companies' Annual Reports Warned "Face Changing".

With the approaching of the lunar new year, many companies' performance reports and annual performance forecasts gradually emerged last year. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the growth rate of upstream textile manufacturing enterprises or downstream clothing and home textile enterprises was slightly slower than that of the textile and garment industry.


In the past two years, the garment industry has entered a period of spanformation and adjustment, and the performance of leading enterprises has become a polarization. This point is evident from the recent disclosure of some enterprises' performance at the end of the year.


Leading companies show their advantages


According to the latest consumer data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2018, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and cosmetics in the above retail enterprises increased by 7.4% and 1.9% respectively, representing a slowdown of 2.3% and 11.9% over the same period last year, respectively, representing an increase of 1.9% or 2.5% in November. This shows that the consumption of clothing, shoes and hats and cosmetics categories has not been improved by the end of the year.


Overall, from the annual data analysis, in 2018, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and cosmetics in the above retail enterprises increased by 8% and 9.6% respectively, up 0.20% from the same period last year and 3.90% respectively. The performance of the footwear and footwear industry is basically the same as that of last year. Compared with the cosmetics retail industry, it still maintains a steady performance.


However, although the prospects of the industry boom are not clear, it is still gratifying to look at the recovery trend of leading enterprises in some industries.


Take Bosideng, a brand of down clothing brand that was once trapped in the "shop tide" as an example, fought the battle in 2018. According to its latest performance statistics in the first 9 months of the fiscal year 2018/2019, the cumulative retail sales of the core brand "Bosideng" in the period of the brand down garment business of the company is more than 30% over the same period of 2017/2018 fiscal year. The cumulative retail sales of other brands under the brand down clothing business have increased by more than 20% over the same period of 2017/2018 financial year.


In recent two years, Bosideng's sales performance has been rising gradually, benefiting from the brand spanformation strategy. According to semi annual performance Bulletin released by Boston last November, its operating income increased by 16.4% to 3 billion 444 million yuan as of September 30th last year, and the gross profit margin of down garment business increased by 7.9% to 50.6%. Net profit reached 251 million yuan, up 43.9% over the same period last year. As of last December 10th, Bosideng's share price rose by 129.41% during the year.


Industry believes that Bosideng recent "counterattack" energy comes mainly from two aspects.


Xie Weishan, chairman of Jun Zhi consulting, pointed out that Bosteng can spanform rapidly and get better performance, which is inseparable from its operational capability accumulated over the past 40 years. This enables the company to complete the marketing strategy layout for the shopping guide's assembly training and the flash shop's opening before the peak season comes.


Cheng Weixiong, general manager of Shanghai Liang Qi Brand Management Co., Ltd. believes that Bosideng has gained great attention in the market in the past two years. But on the whole, "doing a down coat" and returning it wholeheartedly to the main industry may be the main reason for its "counterattack".


In addition to Bosideng, Hai Lan home, Semir costumes, and biylfin still maintained relatively high level of performance in the second half of 2018. This shows the development advantages of the leading enterprises in the industry and sub sectors in the general downturn of the industry.


Disclosure of "buried thunder", a number of enterprises at the end of the year notice "changed face"


In the capital market, there are always "a few unhappy families," and the "good news" of enterprises with better performance can not avoid the "bad news" of enterprises at the other end. In accordance with the impact of the new rules, companies that have reported annual results are expected to make corrections by the end of January when the latest changes in earnings, losses, losses, or losses have increased by more than 50%.


In recent days, in the face of the approaching closing period of the end of the year, many listed companies have speeded up the frequency of information disclosure. Among them, many companies have made amendments to the annual reports, including several textile and garment enterprises that have lowered their annual expectations.


Institutional sources suggest that in January, people who are concerned about the investment opportunities of industrial enterprises need to be alert to the chain reaction brought about by the "big change" of the company's performance during the peak of the disclosure period. If the disclosure of notice is relatively different from before, it will not only reduce the stock price of the related companies, but also have a great impact on the goodwill of these companies.


Among them, the "shocking" margin of "advance loss" is Busen shares, which were deeply involved in regulatory compliance investigations and litigation scandals in 2017 and 2018. Mid January, Busen shares announced that the company's 2018 performance is expected to decline 447%-486% compared to the same period, the loss range from 185 million yuan to 198 million yuan. Prior to the company's three quarterly report last year, the net profit of 2018 was 94.08% to 114.79% over the same period last year, and the net profit change range was -200 yuan to 5 million yuan.


As for the reason why the performance changed greatly, it was mainly influenced by the previous lawsuit of "radish chapter" scandal. Busen shares said that the company is currently facing a lawsuit brought to the judiciary by the plaintiff's Deqing County SME financial service center Ltd., the Shenzhen city credit fortune Cci Capital Ltd and Zhu Dandan, involving the amount of 138 million yuan, 48 million 740 thousand yuan and 49 million 660 thousand yuan respectively, and the three proceedings are still at the trial stage, and the company has raised the corresponding liabilities for the procedure. In addition, under the influence of macroeconomic downside pressure, the company made strategic layout in advance in the fourth quarter of 2018 according to market changes, and adjusted the inventory handling policy and dealer return system.


In addition, the poor performance of Hasen shares, the net profit in 2018 is expected to lose 70 million yuan. The company made a profit of 18 million 170 thousand yuan in the same period last year. In the annual report notice, they admitted that in the past year, the number of domestic stores decreased, domestic sales performance decreased, orders for export business continued to decrease, and export departments suffered heavy dismissal benefits, resulting in export losses. From the perspective of company operation, this enterprise has shown a more obvious "weakness".


Compared with the previous two countries, the forecast of "growth rate decline" is more mild. Much love in the three quarterly report last year, it was estimated that the net profit of 2018 increased 90% to 140% over the same period last year, and the net profit change range was from 43 million 961 thousand and 100 yuan to 55 million 529 thousand and 800 yuan. After correction, the company's net profit growth in the 2018 year is down 10% to 60%, and the profit range is between 25 million 451 thousand and 100 yuan and 37 million 19 thousand and 800 yuan. The main reason for the decline in earnings forecasts is due to the instability of the new Internet business and the growth of marketing costs.


The news bird was previously estimated that net profit in 2018 was 80 million 380 thousand yuan to 93 million 340 thousand yuan, an increase of 210% to 260% over the same period. After correction, net profit is expected to be 51 million 860 thousand yuan to 64 million 820 thousand yuan, up 100%-150% over the same period last year. The company believes that the main reason for the decline in performance growth is that under the change of macro environment, they believe that the recent business situation of the apparel industry is more severe, and the terminal sales of the company have not reached the expected level, and the downward pressure on growth is very heavy.