Consumer Confidence Index: Analysis Of The Textile Industry In The First Quarter

In 2019, the external situation faced by China's textile industry is more and more complex and severe, and the pressure of development has increased.

However, the development trend of China's macro-economy has remained unchanged, and the domestic demand market has continued to upgrade, providing the primary support for the development of the textile industry.

The textile industry continues to deepen structural reforms on the supply side, promote high quality development, and strive to resolve various external risks. The economic performance in the first quarter has remained stable basically, and the resilience to resist downside risks has been enhanced. Under the pressure of internal and external market, the growth rate of production, efficiency and investment is in an overall reasonable range. The business climate is in line with expectations, and the overall smooth start is achieved.

Domestic and foreign markets remain stable and under pressure.

According to the National Bureau of statistics and customs express, in the first quarter of 2019, the sales volume of clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles increased by 3.3% over the same period of the previous year, the growth rate was 6.5 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The retail sales of online apparel products increased by 19.1% over the same period last year, while the growth rate was 14.8 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. However, it continued to maintain a good growth rate of two figures.

Export pressure has increased. The total export volume of textiles and clothing in the first quarter was 56 billion 330 million US dollars, down 1.8% from the same period last year, and the growth rate was 7.4 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

There are some differences in the export performance of the upstream and downstream industries in the industry chain, and textile exports have increased. The export volume in the first quarter was 26 billion 900 million US dollars, an increase of 3.9% compared with the same period last year. The export volume of clothing decreased, and the export volume in the first quarter was US $29 billion 430 million, a decrease of 6.5% compared with the same period last year.

The textile industry is in line with expectations, and production, investment and quality and efficiency are generally stable.

According to the China Textile Industry Federation survey data, in the first quarter of 2019, the textile industry prosperity index was 55, maintaining an expansion interval of more than 50.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the industrial added value of 34 thousand Textile Enterprises above designated size increased by 5.4% over the first quarter, up 1.8 percentage points from the same period last year, higher than the 2.5 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2018.

The total investment in fixed assets increased by 6.5% over the same period last year, up 9.8 percentage points from the same period last year.

In the first quarter, the textile enterprises above Designated Size achieved a total operating income of 1 trillion and 235 billion 310 million yuan, an increase of 6.9% over the same period last year, a 3.8 percentage point increase over the same period last year, and a total profit of 46 billion 100 million yuan, up 2.3% over the same period last year, a growth rate of 6.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

The operating profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size is 3.7%, the turnover rate of finished products is 16.5 times / year, and the total assets turnover rate is 1.2 times / year, which is roughly the same as that of the same period last year.

Looking forward to the 2019, the complex and severe external environment that the textile industry is facing is difficult to change completely. Various uncertain factors still exist, but the positive factors are also increasing.

On the one hand, the global economic and trade growth expectations are slowing down, and the demand for textile and apparel market in the international market is unlikely to improve significantly in the short run. The risk of international trade environment is rising, and the potential impact of Sino US trade friction on international purchase orders and global supply chain layout will gradually appear, and the export pressure of textile industry will continue.

There is downward pressure on the domestic macro economy. The domestic demand consumption focuses more on service oriented and improved consumption, and the textile industry's potential to tap the domestic demand market is facing many challenges.

On the other hand, under the expected impact of the economic slowdown, the pace of contraction of global monetary liquidity is slowing down, and the currencies of countries will remain moderately relaxed, which is expected to boost market confidence and demand for international markets is expected to gradually stabilize.

China's macro-economic operation is stable. The economic growth level in the first quarter is better than expected. The growth of consumer confidence index and per capita income is better than that of the same period last year, which will provide strong support for the gradual improvement of the domestic demand market.

The domestic policy environment is further optimized, and a series of policies and measures to reduce the burden on enterprises and stimulate the development of high quality are gradually promulgated, and the results will be beneficial to stabilize the macro-economy and consolidate the steady growth of domestic demand. The domestic market environment of the textile industry will also steadily improve.

Generally speaking, although the external environment is complex and changeable, China's textile industry still has stable operation conditions as a whole.

The textile industry will further implement the spirit of the nineteen party and the central economic work conference, deepen the structural reform of supply side, vigorously promote the development of high quality, actively stimulate the potential of domestic demand, strive to stabilize the share of the international market, and strive to maintain a steady and healthy development trend.