Be Caught Off Guard! Zheng Cotton Fell Nearly 10% A Day And A Night.

Shortly after the opening of the morning of May 13th, cotton futures in Zhengzhou were all down, and part of cotton yarn futures contracts were temporarily down until the end of the day.

And yesterday evening night trading session, cotton and cotton yarn futures did not change, cotton futures main contract 1909 and far month 2001 contract again after the expansion of the limit.

Cotton futures totaled a drop of nearly 10% a day and a night.

Cotton option volatility also increased significantly yesterday, the selling options generally rose, the most active contract was CF909P15000, closing rose 216.3%, the virtual option rose more, CF909P14200 rose 538.33%.

Cotton futures fell sharply and many investors opened their mouths with surprise.

Wu, a head of futures investment in Shanghai, told futures Daily reporters that the downstream demand for cotton and cotton yarn has been getting worse since late March, when the spot price of cotton and cotton yarn did not receded sharply, mainly because the market was expected to support prices.

Recently, the price difference between cotton and cotton yarn has reached a new high in recent years. Most of the spot hedging cotton is in urgent need of the market, plus the operation of some macro hedge funds throwing cotton and apple and jujube, and in recent days, the market has been widely known that the main apple production area is blooming and fruit less and the first time that jujube is blooming less.

Shortly after the opening of the morning of May 13th, Mr. Zhang, the head of an investment institution in Zhejiang, told the futures Daily reporter that if he did not enter the field with automatic stop loss, it would be a "catastrophe".

If you discard the market again, cotton prices will be lower.

At that time, the futures Daily reporter was regretting that the market's most recent news was not reported in time.

"In a comprehensive way, the sudden decline in cotton and cotton prices has a lot to do with the downturn in downstream demand. This is also a concentrated expression of all the bad factors accumulated to a point in the past 1 months."

Zhang told futures Daily reporters that the market is generally not optimistic about the demand outlook, and Cotton Traders and so on.

According to Mr. Wu, the market is more optimistic about cotton and cotton yarn. Investors are generally optimistic about the market outlook. Many "old futures" are also obsessed with the bull market in the cotton market in 2009.

Some investors are doing more operations over the long term, especially when investors build a larger number of positions on the main 1909 contracts.

After the sharp decline in cotton futures market, the key to the future market development depends on how to deal with the early stage.

If the early stage can not sustain, the development of the market will be difficult to judge.

A cotton professional investor believes that contrary to the basic supply and demand of the market to do more, only the current arbitrage can make them unable to bear.

According to his understanding, in April this year, in the process of rising cotton prices, there was no risk in the market, and some investors opened cotton "more than 7 empty 9" positions.

But these positions were opened last week.

At the same time, after the demand for cotton spinning and chemical fiber has weakened, the current position also covers the total circulation of cotton.

At present, the domestic textile situation is still uncertain.

It is understood that after the hot sale in March, the textile market appeared weak in April, and the demand became weaker after entering May.

Such as cotton yarn and other chemical fiber raw materials volume and price have slipped, seems to have signs of early into the off-season.

At the same time, the stock of downstream cloth products is increasing, and the profits of enterprises are narrowed, which constitutes a certain pressure on raw material cotton prices.

Wang Haoyu, manager of Sino Pu Weiye (Beijing) Trade Development Co., Ltd. believes that the core issue of China's cotton and cotton textile market is that the raw materials end is facing a "double fetter". The operating environment of the upstream and downstream industries is quite different from that of the back and forth, and the dependence on foreign trade is still relatively high. The change of the international trade situation will have a certain impact on the cotton spinning industry.

Qi Lei, chief investment officer of Henan Yis Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., believes that the price and inventory of cotton and cotton yarn both at home and abroad are at a high level. The medium and long-term strategy should be to buy imported cotton and sell 2001 contracts.

In his view, domestic and foreign cotton price difference may continue for a longer period of time, on the one hand, there are gaps in the country, on the other hand, reserve cotton has been at a low level.

According to the futures Daily reporter, since May, due to the continuous decline in processing profits, small and medium-sized textile enterprises in parts of Shandong and Hebei have reduced the start-up rate, and some enterprises have been shut down. Some enterprises have not informed workers to work after May 1 holiday.

Yang Yong, chairman of Shanghai Yu an company, told futures Daily reporters that the situation of downstream industries of cotton spinning industry is not optimistic from some cotton related yarn and clothing related orders.

Many factors that are not conducive to the long-term and stable development of the market are intertwined, making it difficult for everyone to feel at ease. Many cotton resources have a strong desire to sell cotton, which may be one of the main reasons for the sudden decline in cotton prices.

The sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system showed that the yarn production and sales rate was 95.1% in the early May, and 10.6 percentage points lower than the same period, a decrease of 9.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year, 6.9 percentage points lower than the average level in the past 3 years, and 21 days of inventory sales, an increase of 0.8 days, an increase of 6.6 days from the same period, which is 6.8 days higher than the average level in the recent 3 years.

The production and marketing rate of the cloth was 99%, the ring ratio rose by 0.1 percentage points, 2.3 percentage points down from the same period, 1.2 percentage points higher than the average level in the same period of 3 years. The sales volume of the stock was 33.3 days, the ring ratio was 1 days, and the same period was 1 days, and the average level was 5.7 days lower than that of the same period of the past 3 years.

Some professionals believe that the sudden fall of cotton and cotton futures will give futures cotton more advantage. It is expected that the price performance of the cotton warehouse will be greatly improved, and the sales of warehouse receipts will be accelerated.

At the same time, both domestic and foreign cotton prices will be downloaded, which will create opportunities for the rotation of cotton reserves. In the long run, it will be conducive to the development of domestic cotton and cotton yarn industry.