The Upsurge Is Fading, When Will PTA Price Fall?

The PTA market is changing. With the release of bad news and the suspension of mainstream supply, the spot market price has dropped sharply.

surface One The near future PTA Equipment maintenance list

Unit: 10000 tons

Source: lung Chung

In terms of supply, the centralized maintenance period of the PTA plant has passed, and the production has been stable. And the 1 million tons of Sichuan chemical industry (Shengda) has been produced. At the same time, under the temptation of high processing fee, the overload of PTA plant has led to a steady increase in the supply side.

chart 12019 year PTA Processing fee chart

As of May 23rd, the cost end PX price closed at $867.75, a decrease of 10.85 percentage points from 105.58 yuan last month. PTA prices closed at 5675 yuan, down 865 yuan, or 13.25 percentage points. PTA price decline is greater than PX decline, and PX profit has been near the cost line, PTA is still relatively high. According to long Zhong information, the production cost of PTA is calculated. The production cost of domestic PTA plant is 5119.86 yuan / ton, and the processing cost of PTA is 1155 yuan / ton, down 456 yuan from last month, or 28.3%. According to the processing fee of 600 yuan, PTA still has a larger profit margin. If the market still has no good news guidelines, it will not rule out that the processing profit will continue to be compressed.

surface Two Downstream polyester repair and reduction plan

Unit: 10000 tons

At present, the average operation of the polyester industry is 89.45%, down 1.88% compared with last week. Next week, Shanghai Petrochemical 340 thousand tons and Jiaxing Yifang 200 thousand tons maintenance plan, and Zhuocheng, dwo and other factories have negative plans, the supply of polyester field will further decline, and the 400 thousand tons of equipment repair and repair of Tiansheng early in the week will restart again next week, so it is expected that polyester will start to rise next week after next week. It is estimated that the average start of polyester will be around 87.69% next week, and the decline will be 1.96%.

On the whole, the PTA market starts its own operation rate to a high level, and overloads production under high profits. In addition, Sichuan's energy suppliers are facing superior products. The supply of goods will flow to East China, and the supply will only increase. At the same time, downstream polyester and terminal demand continued to slump, factory finished inventory continued to drag up, polyester factories more preferential shipping, profits quickly compressed, affected by this, polyester factory production and maintenance efforts to further increase, the contradiction between supply and demand highlighted, PTA market prices fell.