Cotton Yarn Bottom Process Has Not Yet Been Completed 6-8 Months C32 Yarn Price Or Below 21500 Yuan / Ton

Since May, the price of the CF1909 contract of zhengmian has dropped from 15610 yuan / ton to the lowest point 12720 yuan / ton, or 18.51%, while the "double 29" pickup price of the Xinjiang regulatory authority has dropped from 15900-16000 yuan / ton to 14500-14600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.81%.

Since May, the CY2001 disk has dropped from 25295 yuan / ton to 20515 yuan / ton, or 18.9%, but the quotation of C32S in the spot market has dropped from 23300-23500 yuan / ton to 21900-22100 yuan / ton, or only 6%.

It can be seen that the spot decline of cotton and cotton yarn is obviously lower than that of futures, and the downstream products such as cotton yarn, grey cloth and clothing are lower than those of upstream raw materials.

Recently, it is noteworthy that since the middle of May, the volume and position of cotton yarn futures have shown a "blowout" growth. The signs of cotton mills, investment institutions and traders entering the market are more obvious.

Take the main CY2001 contract as an example, from late April to mid May, the daily turnover was less than 200 hands (the lowest was only 30-40 hands), but on May 17-24, the volume suddenly broke through 20 thousand hands, 60 thousand hands and 80 thousand hands (85 thousand and 654 hands in May 23rd, creating a new high turnover volume of cotton yarn futures), and the number of positions increased from more than 100 to 25 thousand and 800.

Industry analysis, on the one hand, cotton yarn futures hedging and arbitrage opportunities are more prominent, and are favored and sought after by funds, cotton textile mills and traders. On the other hand, Sino US trade friction has raised concerns about the sharp decline in orders, consumer demotion and buyers' pressure, and cotton yarn futures have gradually become an important tool for yarn manufacturers to sell and avoid risks.

The author thinks that from raw material price, futures trend and external market, the adjustment of cotton yarn is not in place. The "alarm" of cotton mill and cloth factory has not been lifted. In 6-8, C32 yarn price does not exclude the possibility of breaking 21500 yuan / ton.

Trade negotiations between China and the United States will be called a protracted war.

Once the US starts to import tariffs of 325 billion US dollars on China's imports (about 40 billion US dollars for textiles and clothing), the impact on China's cotton and grey fabric production and marketing will be very great, and the consumption of cotton yarn or cotton will decline considerably.

Some Chinese companies are trying to increase the difficulty of exporting "fake labels" to the United States and Europe through Vietnam, Pakistan and other countries.

Some Chinese exporters are making every effort to avoid the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States.

Vietnam has recently said dozens of forged certificates of origin have been found, and companies try to avoid tariffs imposed by the United States on agricultural products, textiles and steel through illegal pshipment.

The continuous increase in the inventory of cotton mill products is in sharp contrast to the low reserve of raw materials such as cotton.

From the survey point of view, since the middle of May, the phenomenon of small and medium size mills, weaving mills and garment factories reducing production or even shutting down production has become more and more serious.

From the perspective of the whole industry chain, spinning profits are high, and the main problem at present is the lack of orders, not prices.

In recent days, the average daily price of Xinjiang cotton has been calculated at 12800-12900 yuan / ton, the net profit of spinning C32S yarn is at least 1500 yuan / ton, and the upstream cotton processing enterprises have been generally "injured" and "the pressure mountain is large" at the terminal outlet.