Polyester Filament "Weekend Quotes" For How Long?

The two quarter Polyester fiber Long wire surprised "the weekend market", the working day market is quiet, the weekend production and marketing is very hot, at present Polyester filament The market lacks demand side support, how long will the market rally last? When will the next market start?

The first weekend market appeared at the end of April. After a period of depression, the stock pressure of polyester filament increased. PTA The equipment maintenance information is concentrated, but the PTA processing fee is high, and whether the equipment is scheduled to be overhauled becomes the mystery of the industry. The pressure of the stock of polyester filament enterprises is highlighted, and the preferential sales promotion mode is opened ahead of May 1. Under the guidance of the bottom line mentality, the enthusiasm of buying is increased, and the average production and sales are close to 150%, and the high-end 300% and 600% are near.

Fig. 1 daily production and sales trend of direct spun polyester filament

The second weekend market is at the end of May. In the first half of May, the polyester market was in a doldrums, and raw material PTA continued to expand slightly on the basis of high processing fees. The profit of polyester filament continued to compress. As shown in Figure 2, the POY mainstream model once suffered a loss situation, the enterprises were miserable, and the regional offer began to pull up. The long silence of polyester filament broke out at the weekend (May 26th -28). Some enterprises sold and sold at weekends as high as 300%, 400%, 600%, 750%, 1000%, 1200%, or even 2000%. The purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream weaving enterprises is soaring. This wave of purchasing climax has lasted until Monday. On the trading day, the average production and sales of direct spinning polyester filament in Neijiang Zhejiang area is near 300%, and the individual high-end 1000%, the specific production and sales numbers are as follows: 300%, 100%, 200%, 300%, 260%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 300%, 300%, 300%, 300%, 10%, 12, 12, 12, 12, 12, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 300%, 260%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 200%, 300%, 10%, 200%, 300%, 300%, 10%, 300%, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 1.

Fig. 2 Comparison of profit trend of mainstream spinning patterns of direct spinning polyester filament

The third weekend market appeared in early June. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the market of polyester filament was cold, and the weaving enterprises had little desire to prepare goods in advance, and the stock of enterprises increased slightly. However, on the last day of the holiday, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the lower reaches, and the production and marketing of polyester products at the weekend were unusually hot. The production and marketing of individual enterprises were nearly 1000, and the pressure of inventory was eased. The market was going up on Monday, and the center of gravity of polyester trading was moving upward. Meanwhile, the raw material PTA was also rising, giving the polyester market a good support. The production and marketing of the products continued to be hot on Monday, and the average daily production and sales were around 300%. However, the lack of demand side support, the hot market is always difficult to maintain, after Tuesday, filament has entered the rigid demand.

Fig. 3 Comparison of stock days in mainstream spinning enterprises of direct spun polyester filament

It is worth mentioning that after two rounds of production and sales volume, the stock of polyester enterprises has dropped sharply. By the middle of June, POY stocks had dropped to 7-12 days, and FDY stocks dropped to 11-16 days, and DTY stocks dropped to 18-24 days.

Today, the fourth wave weekend market again appears, according to long Zhong statistics, yesterday, some polyester filament enterprises production and sales volume, high-end in 180%, 200%, 400%, 800%, some enterprises also indicated that the production and marketing situation is generally maintained at 3-5 yuan. And on Monday, the double raw materials also narrowed and pulled up, boosting the market confidence of polyester filament, and the quoted price of enterprises increased by 50-150 yuan / ton. As of 15:40, the average production and sale of direct spun polyester filament were around 160%, and some high-end products were 400% and 500%. The specific production and sales numbers were as follows: 240%, 100%, 100%, 120%, 200%, 200%, 60%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 100%, 200%, 200%, 200%, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 1 respectively. At present, most polyester filament enterprises say that according to the market cycle in the near future, it is difficult to achieve such a high level of production and marketing tomorrow, and there are many variables in whether the market can continue to pull up.

Fig. 4 Comparison of loading and weaving load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces

At present, the starting load of looms and looms has decreased slightly, and the starting rate is still in the down cycle according to the change of its starting period. In the first half of this year, there were frequent accidents in the chemical industry. Among them, the Xiangshui accident resulted in more stringent safety supervision, and the security issue became the top priority. The printing and dyeing enterprises around Xiangshui were implicated and ordered to shut down, resulting in a continuous increase in the cost of dyeing and weaving, which indirectly increased the weaving cost. At present, the international economic environment is grim, coupled with the turmoil in the Middle East, which has aggravated the expectations of the industry, and reduced the demand for foreign trade orders. It is understood that at present many of the weaving enterprises polyester filament inventory accumulation, the recent polyester production and marketing is behind the stock shift, rather than digestion, so how long can the rally support?