All Kinds Of "Thunder" In The Capital Market Emerge In Endlessly. This Year'S "Tide Of Default" Or Ahead Of Schedule.

91 bond thunder! The amount involved is nearly 50 billion! Private enterprises debt default, banks tighten credit threshold

In July, 9 bonds had been defaulted. If the time was extended to the beginning of the year, the number of bond defaults increased to 91, involving an amount of up to 49 billion 290 million yuan.

The head of a large public fund in Shanghai said:

"Recently, our company has carried out a wave of" mine clearance "for its holdings. It is estimated that not only our company, but also the recent situation of the whole industry is almost the same, and the number of default incidents is increasing.

From past experience, the end of the year tends to be more concentrated. Now we must prevent in advance and avoid being caught off guard. "

The tide of default seems to be coming early.

50 billion private giant capital chain collapse

The near future, A private giant with a total assets of 50 billion yuan in Shaoxing Jinggong group The default of the exploded bond is 2 billion 100 million.

The predecessor of Jinggong group is Shaoxing warp knitting machinery general factory. This private enterprise, which was founded by warp knitting machine, once boarded the "top 500 Chinese private enterprises" when it was the most brilliant.

At present, the industry of Jinggong group includes: steel structure construction and equipment manufacturing. (carbon fiber equipment, textile special equipment, robot intelligent equipment, precision manufacturing, etc.) Shaoxing yellow rice wine, new materials, general aviation five leading industries and big data.

In July 17th, the Jinggong group after the ultra short term breach of the agreement announced again that as of July 16th, the company and its subsidiaries within the scope of the merger The total amount of outstanding debts is 2 billion 107 million yuan. 。 In addition to this 1 billion yuan ultra short fuse, there are more than 1 billion yuan of outstanding financial institutions debt.

The latest financial statements show that by the end of September 30, 2018, the total assets of the Jinggong group were calculated to be as high as 54 billion 102 million yuan However, the scale of liabilities is also high. 36 billion 550 million yuan , The total assets and liabilities ratio reached 67.55%.

Affected by this, Seiko group's three listed companies' share prices have dropped to varying degrees.

Recently, the "grand occasion" of the 4 phase of bond defaults within a day has pushed the credit risk of private enterprises to a climax. In July 15th, "18 Jinggong SCP003", "15 city construction MTN001", "17 Kang Xin Xin MTN002", "17 win Tong MTN001" 4 bonds also declared a breach of contract. The total size of the 4 bonds totaled 4 billion 300 million yuan, of which the Jinggong group was the first to default. This also puts the credit risk of private enterprises on the cusp. As a matter of fact, this year, more and more well-known private enterprises have been in breach of the contract, and the hidden risks are worth paying attention to.

Private enterprises are frequent in minefields, and the capital is difficult in winter.

This year's "default tide" seems to have come a little earlier.

According to the flush statistics, 91 bonds have been defaulted this year, involving an amount of up to 49 billion 290 million yuan.

In fact, similar to Jinggong group, the holding company of group company, and the case of group company default is not uncommon. Previously, such as the Yiyang group, Xinguang Group and so on.

Haitong Securities Jiang Chao pointed out in the Research Report:

This year, the default of private enterprise bonds is still very high. Among the 24 newly defaulted entities, there are 21 private enterprises, accounting for 87.5% of the total number of default entities, 82% higher than last year's total, involving a total of 46 billion 900 million yuan of bonds.

The actual controller risk of private enterprises is frequent. Since July alone, 4 listed companies in the A share market have been detained or approved for arrest by the actual authorities of the listed companies.

The actual control risk is mainly reflected in the real controller has a significant impact on corporate refinancing. In addition, in advance, the real controller may make use of his authority to facilitate "tunneling" companies, such as capital occupation of major shareholders, and subsequently affect subsequent projects.

Financial truthfulness of listed companies is widely questioned.

Recently, Kang Dexin (002450), Kangmei Pharmaceutical (600518) and recent Cheng Xing international events have aroused concern about the company's financial authenticity and risks in the supply chain finance field. In 2018, corporate financial authenticity deteriorated. In 2018, all A share listed companies had an increase of 2.84 percentage points over the previous year. At the end of 2018, the 18 annual report of the issuer of credit debt was increased by 21 compared with the same period.

Frequent defaults have left institutional investors in the cold.

Zhang Lin, a fund manager of a large private equity company in Southern China, said: "now the credit debt of private enterprises has been afraid to hold a high proportion, hoping to reduce risks by diversifying investment. In the past, the situation of bond default was relatively small, and agencies were stepping up to be unfortunate. But last year, the number of exploding incidents rose one after another, and the probability of stepping up was greatly increased. First, we must strengthen the basic research work of credit, have a long-term and close track of the industry and the main body, and second, control the positions.

But Zhang Lin said that some risks can be prevented through research, while others are very difficult. "For example, chairman of the board can not be involved in such a case, and sometimes luck is also important."

Supply chain finance "twists and turns"

According to many understanding, after last year's relevant departments encouraged banks to increase credit for private enterprises, many banks increased the amount of private enterprises' supply chain financial loans.

After all, the supply chain finance business pays attention to information flow, commodity flow and cash flow. The bank also provides loans according to the invoice and contract documents provided by private enterprises, and the relative bad debt risk is relatively low.

A business executive told reporters that in order to further control the risk of bad debts in supply chain finance, they also asked the vagrants of the industrial chain to register relevant accounts under their banks, thus forming a closed loop of funds so that banks could understand the supply chain lending flow in time and avoid misappropriation of funds.

He said frankly that this was also one of the main reasons why his bank's supply chain finance credit bad debts kept at a low level for some time.

"Nowadays, the branch suddenly asked to examine the authenticity of the trade background of the supply chain finance business of the private enterprises, and even stopped some of the approved businesses.

He sighed with emotion. Some private enterprises complained directly to him: did banks start lending again?

Many people in charge of private enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang told reporters that the move had a considerable impact on the current capital chain of private enterprises. Because of the slowdown in economic growth and the increasing uncertainty in Sino US trade frictions, their accounts for foreign trade and domestic sales were extended to 3-6 months. Through the supply chain finance loan, the upstream raw material purchase cost and part of daily operating expenses will be paid. Once the supply chain finance loan is "halted" or postponed loan, they may face more capital turnover problems.

"Within our initial estimate, if supply chain finance postpones lending, we can only find private lending to solve the problem of capital turnover. The corresponding annualized interest cost is 15 percentage points higher than that of banks, but the net profit margin of our products is less than 7%, which means that we should make a single loss." A Jiangsu and Zhejiang region construction machinery manufacturing export entrepreneur told reporters. At present, they have combined the related information of the upstream and downstream enterprises of the industry chain with invoices, procurement contracts and other related information, hoping that banks can resume supply chain finance lending as soon as possible.

But he said that the relevant progress is not fast at the moment. On the one hand, the bank's wind control department will verify the trade background authenticity of supply chain finance lending one by one. On the other hand, the bank compliance department is also investigating the standardization of bank employees' operation process in the whole business, such as whether it is face signed or not, and whether there is a "name, two characters" (someone impersonating). The phenomenon of regulation is to prevent private enterprises from mixing false contracts to acquire supply chain financial loans to repay other debts or loans, leaving risks to banks.

"What I am most worried about is that if the threshold for loans is tightened, the lending targets for private enterprises in the second half of this year will probably be difficult to achieve." The above business director pointed out.

Beware of these enterprises: pledge rate exceeds 90%, huge debt.

According to wind statistics, the number of new debt default has reached 21 in 2019, of which 4 companies, including Jinggong group, tengbang group, CITIC Guoan and Sanxing group, all have a high proportion pledge of their superior company shares, and have been frozen by law and waiting for a freeze.

In fact, when a company appears to have a high proportion of pledge of shares of listed companies, It usually means that the financing ability of enterprises is approaching the limit, and the risk of default is greater once debt concentration is paid.

Source: XinDa Securities Research Institute

XinDa securities reviewed the list of defaulted bonds with high pledge rate, and further compiled a list of stock debt companies held by listed companies with a stock pledge rate of more than 90% for market reference.

(part of the source twenty-first Century economic report, global textile network consolidation)
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