Cotton Growth And Yield Prediction In China

In July, Xinjiang cotton entered the flowering and boll stage, and most of the cotton in the mainland entered the flowering stage and flowering stage. The occurrence of pests and diseases in cotton fields is relatively mild in the whole country, but the overall growth rate is still worse than that of last year. According to the weighted average calculation of cotton planting area of cotton farmers surveyed, the total output of cotton in the whole country is estimated to be 6 million 40 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.22% over the previous period, a decrease of 20 thousand tons compared with the previous period and a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. According to the subregion, the total output of cotton in Xinjiang is flat as compared with that in previous years, due to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather in spring this year. In the mainland, the overall growth of cotton is affected by drought and heavy rainfall, and the output of the the Yellow River basin and the Yangtze River Basin is lower than that of the previous period.

By the end of July, the country's cotton diseases were 68.76% lighter, 9.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 73.62% less insect pests, an increase of 15.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The growth rate was 43.25%, an increase of 20.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

Xinjiang cotton entered flower and boll stage in July. Judging from the survey, five to seven fruit branches reached 16.7%, seven to ten fruit branches reached 75%, ten fruit shoots reached 8.4%, and cotton growth was relatively slow compared with last year. The incidence of diseases and insect pests is relatively low. The surveyed households accounted for 63.8% of the disease, which was 10.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous year. 75.9% of them were considered less insect pests, representing an increase of 18.5 percentage points compared with that of the previous year. They thought that the growth rate was only 17.5%, which was 34.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. August is the sprint stage of cotton harvest. Cotton farmers should add flower boll fertilizer and peach fertilizer according to their seedling conditions. Secondly, they should also control long and long cotton plants and do well in field management work. Cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to be 5 million 137 thousand tons, unchanged from the same period last year, but 13 thousand tons lower than the previous period.

There are many drought conditions in the the Yellow River basin. The cotton plants in some areas are retarded, and the bolls are few. In late days, the weather is high temperature and high humidity. There was almost no disease. The proportion of the lighter disease incidence was 99.28%, an increase of 11.9 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The proportion of insect pests was lighter than that of last year, and the proportion of light incidence was 74%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared with that of last year. It was mainly red spider, aphid, bug bug and cotton bollworm. Among the survey households, the total cotton growth rate was 26.76%, which was 17.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. The total output is expected to be 476 thousand tons, down 8.19% from the same period last year, a 1.44 percentage point increase over the previous period.

Most of the cotton in the Yangtze River Basin is more suitable for cotton growth, and some areas are affected by drought and hail in some areas. The growth is relatively poor. In areas with irrigation conditions, the growth of cotton is relatively good, with 18-19 fruit branches and nearly 20 bolls. The incidence of disease was relatively slight, accounting for 69.45%, which was 18.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. Due to heavy rain after prolonged drought, the occurrence of severe drought after rain was slightly heavier than that of last year. Pests were mainly red spider, bug bug and aphid, and a few cotton bollworms. The occurrence of insect pests was lighter than that of 60.31%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points compared with that of the previous year. The survey households thought that the growth rate was 43.86%, which was 15.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The total output is expected to be 384 thousand tons, down 5.58% from the same period last year, a 2.53 percentage point increase over the previous period.