Who Is Watching The Sky?

Last September, when Li Bin, the founder of Wei Lai car, led the team to the United States to ring the bell, it might not have occurred to him that after more than a year, he would be called "the most miserable person in 2019".

At that time, Li Bin was just the "Internet upstart" who had just put in the car making business. Meanwhile, Wei Lai car also headed the "China's first new car driving force in the US IPO" aura. Although the scale of financing has shrunk from $1 billion 800 million in the prospectus to $1 billion, many voices in the market have pointed out that Wei is "bleeding to market", but it can not be denied that at that time, Li Bin and Wei Lai car did not have a two view.

After the listing, Wei came to the "dramatic" stock price trend. Just landed in the capital market, Wei Lai stock price fell immediately, opened five minutes to drop 14.4%, but soon began to rebound, on the same day, the stock price rose slightly 5.43% closing.

The trend of this style almost runs through the performance after the listing, but now it is hard to end up like the first day. Since the listing, the price of Wei Lai has fluctuated greatly. After March this year, the stock price entered a continuous downward range. Recently, Wei Lai's share price dropped to about 1.5 US dollars / share, down 76% compared with the issuing price of 6.26 US dollars / share.

Share price roller coaster

After the listing of Wei Lai, the stock price fell for the first time, the third day after the listing. On the morning of that day, Bernstein, Bernstein, issued the first rating on Wei Lai automobile: inferior to the market and the target price was 4.2 US dollars / share. The market responded sharply, and the share price fell for several days.

At that time, Wei Lai had not yet delivered a new car. Such a blow was basically unable to respond. However, the market was always coexistence. It was not long before Wei came to be supported by a star information management company. In October, Asset Management Co Baillie Gifford & Co. increased more than 8500 shares in Scotland, accounting for 11.44% of the total share capital. It is worth mentioning that Baillie Gifford & Co. is the largest external shareholder of Tesla, and its stock price has rebounded immediately.

In foreign capital markets, Wei Lai is not as "unseen" as many people think. One interesting thing is that Citron, a short known institution, operates on the backhand. In the second half of last year, Citron has released many reports and sang it as a "brand to subvert the industry".

The majority of citron is related to its own operation. At the beginning of this year, Andrew Left, founder of citron research, admitted to the media that he had sold all of the stock holdings. "When a stock rises 50% in three months, you should make a profit."

It can only be said that citron grasped the right time node. In fact, from the second half of last year to the beginning of this year, Wei Lai has been faced with a contest between the long and short camps. The first quarterly report was released, the deliveries exceeded 10 thousand, the first customer who asked to return the car, and the departure of CEO in North America and so on, all of which made it go through a tumbling 2018.

In February 2019, after the Spring Festival, there was a significant increase in Wei Lai. At that time, Li Bin received an exclusive interview with the US media "60 minutes". He expressed confidently in the program that he bought not only a car but also a ticket to a new way of life.

At that time, the "model" Tesla, who came to the match, was in a series of trouble. Founder, Elon Musk, was entangled with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Tesla's share price also fell for a long time. Some analysts believe that investors would be a substitute for Tesla to a certain extent.

No matter what the reason is, it is the latest rise, and the stock price has hit $10.63 / share. But since then, Wei Lai's share price has fallen into a downward path. From the beginning of March, it plummeted to slow decline in 4 and May, then to 7 and August.

Whether to get the next round of financing is the key.

Wei Lai's 2019 is very hard. This view is exaggerated, but to a certain extent, Wei Lai has exhausted the confidence of the market. Since March this year, the performance of the two tier market has shown intuitively that the market has changed the view of Wei Lai automobile.

In recent months, there has been little good news, so the stock price has not changed. From the perspective of financial performance, Wei lost a net loss of 9 billion 639 million yuan in 2018, and lost 2 billion 623 million yuan and 3 billion 285 million yuan in the first two quarters of 2019.

Judging from the operation situation, in the first half of this year, Wei came out of vehicles for no reason spontaneous combustion. After finding out the reasons, Wei recalled 4803 ES8 and increased the recall cost of 340 million yuan in the two quarter.

From the perspective of enterprise management, Wei has invested a lot in operation and R & D, so far the income level has not been able to cover the cost of car sales. In terms of total sales and management costs, the first year of motor vehicle delivery was close to 800 million US dollars. Compared to that, Tesla reached a similar level in 2015. In that year, Tesla spent 922 million US dollars on its expenses, but its income was as high as 4 billion 46 million US dollars, which was 5 times that of last year.

When it came to market, earnings showed that it cost $12 million a day. It was speculated that the amount of money that had been put on the market was enough to spend a year and a half. At present, this speculation is not exaggerated.

The fund manager who participated in the stock investment of the Wei said to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that although the loss was serious, the automobile industry belonged to capital intensive industry. The traditional car enterprises had to spend a lot of capital and a long business cycle to sell huge cost inputs from design, research and manufacture to manufacturing. Therefore, they could not simply deny their long-term investment value through short-term losses.

Another investor said that the current situation of the organization is improving, on the one hand, whether its own business has improved; on the other hand, the key point is cash flow, in other words, whether more funds can be made to tide over the difficulties.

Li Bin clearly realized this. After the first quarter of this year's earnings report, Wei Lai announced an industrial financing plan: the introduction of Beijing Yizhuang DHK, and the partial operation of separate businesses. The latter will invest 10 billion yuan for Wei Lai. However, there is no substantial progress in this financing issue. In addition, Wei Lai is still in contact with other local governments, but the fund-raising matters are not smooth.

Under such circumstances, Li Bin and Tencent, the two largest shareholders, gave the company $200 million of convertible bonds "blood transfusion" and became the support force to support the next stage.

It should be pointed out that during the fall of the stock market, some of its major shareholders did not leave.

According to Wind data, as of the end of June this year, the top five institutional shareholders of Yalai automobile include Baillie Gifford & Co., Hill Lane capital, Temasek Holdings, Blackstone investment and Huaping investment. Specifically, Baillie Gifford & Co. holds 1 billion shares, and the remaining ones hold 41 million 940 thousand, 41 million 450 thousand, 29 million 140 thousand and 27 million 770 thousand shares respectively.

Hill Lane capital, Temasek Holdings and Huaping investment are the original shareholders of Wei Lai automobile, and their shareholding size has not changed before and after the listing. The hill capital has doubled in the second quarter of this year, while Baillie Gifford & Co. and Blackstone investment are the investors who joined later.

After the fourth quarter of 2018, Baillie Gifford & Co. also added more than 100 million shares in the first quarter of 2019. In the two quarter, despite a small reduction, it was still one of the largest institutional shareholders in the two quarter. Blackstone investment began to buy in the two quarter of this year.