Before October, Real Estate Matthew Effect Intensified: The Strong And The Strong, Small And Medium-Sized Housing Enterprises Caught Alive.
The property market in 2019 is so sad that ups and downs are like roller coaster, the industry is seriously divided, and some housing companies have been wandering around the edge of the capital chain.
In the past, sales data in October showed that the strength of the strong and the industry concentration were further enhanced.
By the end of 10, 25 housing companies had sold hundreds of billions of dollars, with a sales average of 233 billion 390 million yuan. At the same time, many small and medium-sized Housing enterprises are facing a crisis of survival, and constantly spread the news of exploding thunder.
Compared to the larger scale of the housing sector, small and medium enterprises have fewer financing channels, higher financing costs, and a few years of radical spending. These are the big stones pressing on them, which may collapse at any time.
The real estate industry has shifted from incremental to stock. In the stock age, the Matthew effect of the industry intensified, and the big fish eating small fish competition, the strong Heng Qiang, the weak faced with the survival crisis.
Fight hard "golden nine silver ten"
The traditional "golden nine silver ten" sales golden period has passed, the real estate market sales performance is mediocre.
According to Kerri data, in October, the new housing transaction and the land market continued the "Kim Gu" downturn trend. The volume of new premises in key cities decreased by 6% and 10% respectively, and the decline was widened from last month.
But the head and mainstream housing companies showed strong vitality, leaving their rivals far behind.
Central Plains real estate research center statistics show that the benchmark Housing enterprises announced that the total number of enterprises in October before 2019 was 14, and the total sales volume of the 14 enterprises in October was 21934 billion yuan, up 17.2% over the same period in 2018. In October alone, the total sales volume of the 14 Housing enterprises reached 280 billion 500 million.
Biguiyuan, Hengda and Vanke sold more than 500 billion yuan in October, and the sales volume of Hengda and Biguiyuan reached 90 billion 300 million yuan and 85 billion yuan in October, respectively.
The data of the middle finger Research Institute showed that in the 1-10 months of 2019, the average sales value of the first 10 Housing enterprises was 376 billion 260 million yuan, the average sales growth rate was 14.7%, the average sales value of 11-30 enterprises was 125 billion 690 million yuan, the average growth rate was 24.4%, the sales value of 31-50 enterprises and 51-100 enterprises were 69 billion 200 million yuan and 32 billion 580 million yuan respectively, and the average growth rates were 32 billion 580 million and 32 billion 580 million respectively.
Ke Rui research report said that the overall growth of the industry slowed down, but the total retail sales of the top 100 housing enterprises as of the end of 10 still achieved a year-on-year increase of nearly 5%, the growth rate was slightly higher than the 4% level in the first half of the year.
In 2019 1-10, the threshold of sales volume of all echelons of top 100 housing enterprises increased slightly compared with the same period last year.
Among them, the threshold of TOP10 Housing enterprises' equity reached 138 billion 60 million yuan, up by 16.4% over the same period. The threshold of TOP20 and TOP30 housing prices is 85 billion 680 million yuan and 60 billion 120 million yuan respectively, with the threshold growth rate of 3.4% and 5.7% respectively.
TOP50 Housing enterprises increased competition pattern, the rights and interests threshold increased by 12.5% to 41 billion 260 million yuan over the same period last year. As of the end of 10, the threshold of TOP100 housing prices reached 14 billion 780 million yuan.
Centaline chief analyst Zhang Dawei analysis, the overall comparison of past data, 2019 October housing prices continue to differentiate sales. Compared to the same period in 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, they rose more than 50% in 2019. Most of the enterprises in 2019 were mainly stationary, and some enterprises increased significantly.
There are negative growth in small and medium enterprises. For example, the cumulative sales in October and 100 were 5% and 12.7% respectively.
On the other hand, the financing cost of Housing enterprises is also serious.
In July, Hong Kong real estate issued a Hong Kong dollar note rate of only 2.90%, refreshing the lowest interest rate in the industry. In the same month, Taihe Group's US dollar bonds issued in Singapore had a coupon of up to 15%. There are 5 times interest rates for offshore bonds.
According to the data of Anxin securities, the total financing cost of TOP10, TOP10-20 and TOP20-50 is 6.23%, 6.48% and 6.87%, respectively, rising by 12BP, 68BP and 96BP respectively compared with 2018.
From the perspective of housing prices, the financing cost of medium-sized Housing enterprises and non state-owned enterprises has increased significantly. The median cost of financing for central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises was 4.91% and 5.52% respectively, representing an increase of 12BP and 12BP respectively compared with 2018, while the median cost of comprehensive financing for non state-owned enterprises was 6.91%, up by 51BP compared to 2018.
Survival crisis looming
For small and medium-sized Housing enterprises, "bustle" belongs to others, they just want to "live".
In October, when the head housing enterprises got enough cash flow for promotion, a Sanzhong Hongye employee of Zhejiang Province's small and medium-sized Housing enterprises was seeking debts from their boss.
The reason is that three years ago, the financial products issued by Sansheng Hongye to employees were not overdue, and the company financial officers found that some executives paid large sums of money for their own finances or transferred company funds.
Chen Jianming, chairman of Sansheng Hongye, immediately held a communication meeting. He cried all over the meeting. He said he would try hard to recover money from his younger sister to pay his employees' financial capital, but he was unable to guarantee the money transferred by other executives.
Three Sheng Hongye staged the "company thunder, the parties to ask for money, the chairman is crying" scene, reflects the survival of the current small and medium enterprises.
This year, there are also the old town of Guangdong real estate enterprises Yihe real estate exploding and well-known Silver billion Group bankruptcy, all of which reveal the cruel competition in the stock era.
Economist Ma Guangyuan's judgment is a warning for small and medium enterprises.
He said that China's real estate will return to the three "20%": the future market only 20% of developers can survive, 80% will die, China's developers are too many, 80% dead, no shortage of houses; only 20% of the city, only 20% of the real estate.
He believes that the high growth rate of real estate investment has ended, and that the price of Chinese assets will not continue to rise. Population and savings will no longer support real estate, and household savings have shifted from high savings to high liabilities.
Zhang Dawei pointed out that housing prices in the next 2 months are still very high pressure. From the perspective of policy expectation, the following market will continue to appear downside risk is very large, policy tightening is expected to appear obviously, including credit and other policies will inhibit the market.
Large developers are more concerned about the industry. Sun Hongbin, chairman of the board of directors of China, called on the real estate finance annual meeting of Minsheng Bank to support real estate mergers and acquisitions, which is the quickest way to solve risks.
"The risks of this industry are economic risks and financial risks. If (developers) can not repay the bank's money, from default to auction, it will take about four years on average, but three years after the merger, but it will be resolved in three months or half a year, so M & A is the best way to resolve the industry risk.
He predicted that "the industry's head office, the top five market share is about 18%, I estimate that in the next five years, the industry's top five will account for 30%."
Sun Hongbin further explained the basis of his judgement. The auto industry accounted for 51% of the top five cities in China, 73% of the beer industry, 78% of the air-conditioning industry, and 83% of the mobile phone industry, so the real estate industry had another five years, and the former five accounted for 30% of the problem.
Sun Hongbin said that the size of the real estate industry this year will be around 16 trillion, and this scale will probably remain for many years.
Prior to this, Hengda President Xia Haijun also said that the "cake" of the incremental market is around 15 trillion, and all developers are fighting in this limited "Red Sea".
At this point, "live" has become the only requirement of small and medium enterprises. From this year's sales situation, the threshold for survival and development of the industry has been raised to 100 billion -2000 billion yuan. If we fail to achieve this scale, we must have very special product strength to survive in the competition.
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