Local Car Companies Are In A Rush: New Energy Vehicles Will Suffer Negative Growth For The First Time.

On November 11, data released by China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "CAAC") showed that in October, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.295 million and 2.284 million respectively, down 1.7% and 4% year on year. In October, 20 million 444 thousand and 20 million 652 thousand vehicles were sold and sold, down 10.4% and 9.7% compared with the same period last year.

Car sales have narrowed compared with the same period last year, and the market tends to be stable.

"Because of the lower base level in the fourth quarter of last year, the decline in China's auto market this year is expected to narrow to about 8%, and the annual sales volume exceeds 26 million vehicles." On November 11th, Xu Haidong, Assistant Secretary General of China Automotive Industry Association, said in an interview with an economic reporter in twenty-first Century.

However, it is worth noting that in the past four months, the sales and sales of new energy vehicles have gone far beyond expectations.

In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 95 thousand and 75 thousand respectively, down 35.4% and 45.6% compared with the same period last year. In the first October, the sales and sales of new energy vehicles were 983 thousand and 947 thousand, respectively, and their growth rates dropped to 11.7% and 10.2% respectively.

"The last two months of last year's new energy vehicle sales base is relatively high, according to the current development trend, this year's new energy vehicle sales will probably have a negative growth." Chen Shihua, Assistant Secretary General of China Automotive Industry Association, told reporters.

New energy production and marketing continue to explore the bottom

The impact of subsidized slope reduction has weakened the driving force of the growth of new energy vehicles at the end of the year. New energy vehicles have been declining for the 4 consecutive month, and the rate of decline is expanding.

From the monthly sales of new energy vehicles, we can clearly feel the impact of policy factors on the sales of new energy vehicles.

In June this year, the new energy vehicle market welcomed the "Carnival" before subsidies subsidised. Sales of new energy vehicles reached the highest point of 152 thousand this month. But since July, sales of new energy vehicles have dropped rapidly. In 8, 9, and October, the market continued to decline.

In 2018, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1 million 270 thousand and 1 million 256 thousand respectively. The difference between the total sales volume in the first half of October and last year was about 300 thousand, but in the past 4 months, the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to reach 7-8 vehicles, and the increase in 11 and December was much more difficult.

This means that China's new energy vehicles will be vigorously promoted for the first time in 10 years.

According to the goal of industrialization of new energy vehicles according to the development plan of energy saving and new energy vehicle industry (2012 to 2020), by 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles reached 2 million, and the cumulative sales volume exceeded 5 million vehicles. Judging from the current development trend, the goal of 2 million vehicles in 2020 is more difficult to achieve.

"According to our original forecast, we believe that the new energy vehicle will arrive at 1 million 600 thousand vehicles, and the confidence of the 2 million vehicles will be enough. However, it is not expected that the impact of this year's subsidy decline will be so great that the two months' slide has been more serious, and it will not be clear whether it will recover in the next two months, but I believe it will return to a positive growth next year. Xu Haidong told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report.

The decline in sales of new energy vehicles has also led to some pessimism about the future of new energy vehicles both inside and outside the industry and from all walks of life.

However, Chen Shihua believes that from the impact of subsidies on the production and marketing of new energy vehicles, we can see that China's new energy vehicle market is still in the initial stage of development. Compared to the 30 million market, the market is relatively small, the impact of policy changes are normal.

"We can not lose confidence in the overall development of new energy vehicles in the future due to the fluctuation of sales volume in the short term. New energy vehicles will still have great potential for development in the future. Chen Shihua said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report.

According to Cui Dongshu, the Secretary General of the National Federation of travel and telecommunications, according to the current demand, the total sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 will be around 1 million 600 thousand units, of which the sales volume of passenger cars will be about 1 million 350 thousand. In view of this, to achieve the goal of 2 million new energy vehicles in 2020, we need to have the determination and the concerted efforts of the policy and the market.

Double integral policy is expected to boost sales of new energy vehicles in 2020. "Some joint ventures will achieve the minimum cost satisfaction rule by buying some new energy points in the short term, but with the reduction of the supply and demand ratio, the fuel consumption regulations will be tightened and the price of the integral will increase. More enterprises will try their best to realize the transformation of new energy and take the road of their own compliance development." Cui Dongshu said.

In addition, the Ministry of industry and commerce is currently leading the development of new energy vehicle development plan (2021-2035). After the withdrawal of financial subsidies, new energy vehicles will still be encouraged and supported by the government in many ways, such as infrastructure construction.

"Catfish effect" to promote a new pattern

In the long run, China's new energy vehicle has broad prospects for development. But at present, most of China's new energy vehicle companies are facing enormous pressure to survive.

"The decline of this new energy vehicle is a good opportunity to reflect on the industry. The development of the new energy comes from the needs of consumers, how much is the demand for travel digestion, and the comprehensive consideration of all aspects of battery cost and charging facilities. Is conducive to the next development of the industry. " Chen Shihua told reporters.

Before that, many Chinese brands took the lead in the market, and the development of new energy vehicles was at the forefront of the world. Among them, BYD has won the world's new energy vehicle sales champion for 4 consecutive years, and Beiqi new energy has won the world's pure electric vehicle sales champion in 2017.

However, judging from the current trend, the first sales of new energy vehicles will be captured by Tesla this year. Thanks to the hot sale of Model 3, Tesla delivered three vehicles in the first three quarters, far ahead of two leading companies in China. According to the sales Bulletin released by BYD (002594.SZ) and Beiqi Blue Valley (600733.SH), the two companies recently encountered sales volume of "Waterloo".

In October, BYD sold 12 thousand and 600 new energy vehicles, down 55% compared to the same period last year, of which sales of pure electric passenger cars fell 41.5% to 7588. Before October, BYD sold 205 thousand and 200 new energy vehicles, an increase of 19.93% over the same period last year. The sales volume of pure electric passenger cars was 131 thousand and 200, an increase of 96.15% over the same period.

BYD has been selling new energy vehicle sales for 4 consecutive months, and its decline has gradually expanded.

Beiqi new energy sales in October were only 8601 vehicles, down 69.2% from a year ago. This also resulted in the annual growth rate of Beiqi new energy being temporarily shifted from positive to negative. In the first half of October, the sales volume of new energy in BAIC dropped by 2.42% to 107 thousand vehicles. In the last two months, the sales target of 220 thousand cars has not been over half of the year. This goal is almost impossible to achieve. If sales do not improve in the next two months, the sales volume of Beiqi new energy may even be lower than that of last year's 158 thousand.

How to cross the ridge of subsidised subsidies has become a common problem facing new energy vehicle companies in China. Moreover, under the promotion of the double integral policy, the new energy vehicle of the joint venture in 2020 should begin to be put into the market in an all-round way. Tesla's domestically produced "catfish effect" will promote a new pattern of the electric vehicle market and form a situation of full competition.

Under the new competitive environment and policy orientation, the potential of new energy vehicles in 2020 will increase greatly, but the challenges faced by China's new energy vehicle companies will also intensify.

Where are the opportunities for China's new energy enterprises to occupy the first mover advantage? At present, in the mainstream market, from the cost level, it is difficult for new energy vehicles to compete with fuel vehicles, and how to locate new energy vehicles is more critical.

Tesla's competitors are fuel cars, and high-end cars are less affected by subsidies. China's new energy vehicles will continue to go high. Recently, car companies have launched 600km electric vehicles to challenge Tesla. In addition, many small cars with short mileage also have certain market potential, which can meet the needs of some specific groups for urban commuter and other scenes. Xu Haidong finally said.