The Effect Of The Refinancing Rules Is Obvious: Listed Companies Are "New, Old And Changing".

The draft of refinancing policy that deregulation efforts exceed market expectations has been published for more than 10 days, and the impact of the new deal on the market is beginning to show.

This week, a listed company withdrew its old plan before the publication of the new deal draft. The plan to reinvest and remanufacture has also become the choice of some companies. But on the other hand, more companies are making more efforts to announce plans to increase the market.

It is worth noting that in the companies withdrawing the scheme, there are not only fixed options, but also the withdrawal of convertible bonds.

In fact, when the refinancing policy was restructured in 2017, regulators chose to relax and support convertible bonds as a supplementary financing tool after tightening non-public offering. In the past two years, the scale of issuance of convertible bonds has also improved significantly, becoming an important variety of refinancing. Now the issue of non-public offering is relaxed, and the market is also studying whether it will affect the issuance of convertible bonds.

The introduction of refinancing new deal is also considered to be the turning point of refinancing market structure reconstruction. The trend of future refinancing market scale rebound has been confirmed by the market.

Market to deal with new deal

In fact, one week after the announcement of the new deal amendment, the market did not appear to have withdrawn the original materials directly, but this week, enterprises began to make choices.

On the evening of November 18th, 002689.SZ announced that it would terminate the 2019 issue of non-public offering and withdraw its application materials.

For the reasons for withdrawing the material, far smart said that the reason for the termination of the issue of non-public offerings is due to the changes in the capital market environment and trend and the adjustment of the company's strategic plan. The company decided to terminate this non-public offering issue through repeated consideration and careful analysis of various factors in the company's internal and external factors, and with the sponsor and so on. The following companies will adopt appropriate financing methods according to the capital market and the progress of the company's operation.

In addition to big intelligence, reporters also learned that many companies are also communicating with the investment bank on terms and whether they need to withdraw materials for redesign.

"In fact, companies that have already made plans are benefiting from the changes in the new deal, but some companies have sacrificed themselves in order to make a lot of concessions in the previous environment, and now look at the policy loosening and the market is expected to improve, so they want to amend the plan." A large brokerage company investment department in Shanghai revealed.

However, some companies are withdrawing materials, and some companies are pressing ahead with new proposals. According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter statistics, after the announcement of the new deal draft, 5 companies have announced the latest fixed increase financing plan.

As the former investment bankers said, after the refinancing rules were revised and the draft was released, it was also clear that the new and old rules would be broken.

Specifically, when the refinancing rules are promulgated and implemented, the refinancing applications have been approved and applied, and the relevant rules before the amendments are applied. The new rules that have not been approved have been applied to the new rules after the revision. The listed companies will continue to push ahead with the corresponding decision-making procedures and update the application documents.

"For the new rules that have not yet been approved by the SFC, the companies that have issued refinancing plans but have not yet obtained the approval of the SFC will benefit from it." The securities analyst of small and medium sized open source Securities Limited Ren Lang told reporters.

According to the statistics of open source securities, there are 369 companies that have issued refinancing schemes for A shares, of which 290 have not yet been approved by the SFC, involving more than 491 billion yuan in financing. These companies will be faster than the new ones.

It is worth noting that the impact of the new deal is not limited to the impact of the listed companies on the issue of non-public offering. Convertible bonds, as another important refinancing tool for listed companies, are also affected by the new deal.

Refinancing product structure inflection point

While some listed companies withdrew their non-public offering programmes, some listed companies withdrew their convertible bonds.

Naka Yoshihiro (000889.SZ) issued a notice on the night of November 19th. In view of the changes in the market environment and financing policies, after comparing various financing options, the company decided to terminate the public issuance of Switching Company bonds and withdraw the application documents. In addition, on the evening of November 20th, 000525.SZ also said it would terminate the issue of publicly available Switching Company bonds.

To terminate the issue of convertible bonds, the two companies have indicated that they will decide to terminate the issuance of convertible bonds in combination with the current environment and financing policies and comparing various financing options.

While the red sun announced a new fixed growth plan at the same time as the issue of convertible bonds was issued, it was obvious that the company had been transformed by the impact of the new deal on the refinancing tool.

Such a situation has been mentioned in the early stage of the refinancing New Deal draft. It is obvious that the refinancing policy has undergone a cycle now. In 2017, the refinancing policy was revised, the non-public offering was suppressed, and convertible bonds were encouraged. Now the refinancing policy is reamended at the end of 2019, and the non-public offering is relaxed. Convertible bond products are bound to be affected in this situation. That is to say, in 2020, the structure of the refinancing products will change or usher in another turning point.

As of November 20, 2019, the scale of the A share issue in 2019 was 564 billion 500 million yuan, while the scale of convertible bonds was 222 billion 700 million yuan. These two kinds of refinancing tools touched their respective historical lows and historical highs respectively.

Since 2016, the scale of non-public offering financing has continued to decline. This year, the scale of non-public offering has fallen to freezing point. In 2018, the scale of non-public offering in 2018 was 752 billion 300 million yuan. Now the surplus is less than one and a half months in 2019. It is almost impossible for 2019 to exceed the size of 2018.

On the other hand, since 2016, the scale of convertible bond issuance has increased year by year. In the first half of 2019, it has exceeded the 107 billion 100 million scale of financing in 2018.

From the perspective of the overall scale of refinancing, convertible bonds are catching up with non-public issuance quickly, and gradually form two main products of non-public offering and convertible bonds.

Now, what is the impact of the refinancing New Deal draft on the refinancing structure in 2020?

For this reason, a senior broker of a large brokerage firm in Beijing area believes that convertible bonds have been gradually accepted by the market. At the same time, there is no policy tendency to tighten convertible bonds in this policy adjustment. He said: "in 2020, the scale of convertible bonds can be maintained at this year's level. However, the recovery of non-public offerings is bound to divert many convertible bonds enterprises, but in general, the scale of the refinancing market will rebound as a whole and the non-public offering will rebound."

Ren said that the policy is loose and tied to solve the core problem, and the public offering market will accelerate. The core issue of fixed market growth is the sharp decline in market demand after strict regulation. This policy has solved the problem of the attraction of capital in the fixed growth market, and the locking period of the high discount rate superimposed and shortening will attract the rapid inflow of funds. After solving the demand of the core market, the market will accelerate. At the same time, we should relax the demand for refinancing, and the enthusiasm of listed companies to increase fixed assets will be enhanced when the market is approved by the fixed market. In the future, the supply and demand at both ends of the market will increase rapidly, which is expected to restore the glory of the past.