The Overall Decline Of Polyester Industry Chain In November Will Continue In December.

In November, the overall downward trend of polyester industry chain upstream and downstream products was mainly. The main influencing factor is that the terminal textile market of the chemical fiber industry is relatively weak in the traditional off-season, and the shortage of orders leads to a high inventory of terminal grey fabric. Meanwhile, the polyester start-up rate of the downstream plant has dropped slightly, and the new PX, PTA and MEG raw materials of polyester raw materials have been put into operation, resulting in the higher pressure of PTA and MEG for polyester raw materials, resulting in a sharp decline in the price. Although the market is tight and the market of MEG ports is obviously good at the end of the month, the weak raw materials in the downstream market make the raw material market rebound little.

November chemical fiber industry chain ups and downs

　　 Chemical fiber industry chain products November ranking by/ gold LIAN

As shown above, in terms of the link ratio, PX (CFR Taiwan) fell 0.55% in November, PTA down 4.38%, MEG fell 4.24%, polyester chip ring fell 5.52%, PET bottle ring fell 4.28%, polyester filament ratio fell 4.63%, polyester staple fiber fell 4.80%.

Analysis of main products of chemical fiber chain

PX

Asia's PX market was lower in consolidation. As of the end of November, Asian PX estimated $776 / tonne FOB Korea and $797 / ton CFR Taiwan / China, up 2 US dollars / ton and 3 US dollars / ton respectively at the end of last month.

At the beginning of November, the international crude oil was strong and volatile. The raw material MX was strong and the cost was well supported. In November 3rd, the new PX installation of Hengyi petrochemical company was formally put into operation, and its PX was supplied to the PTA plant in Southern China, China. However, the new Feng Ming PTA new plant was operating normally after its commissioning. The increase in supply was offset by the increase in demand and the supply and demand of PX. Due to the failure of ACP in November and lack of direction in the market, businesses are worried about the supply of PX in the future and the general enthusiasm for buying. However, at present, there are three sets of PX devices overhauled, and the supply is tighter than before. In addition, the PX profit is losing, and the business continues to lose interest. The market is too short and rigid, and the price center of gravity changes little. At the end of 11, the 4 million ton / year PX plant of Zhejiang petrochemical company started commissioning. However, the volume of production is expected to start in December.

PTA

In November, the domestic PTA spot market weakened and the overall turnover was in general. At the beginning of the month, the crude oil market grew narrower and the PX price rose slightly. The cost side increased the support for the PTA market. However, as the PTA pre maintenance equipment resumed, and the demand for polyester in the lower reaches was weak, the turnover was mild, and the PTA market was mostly narrow in the most of the time. In the middle of the day, with the oil market down, the PTA market was weakened, and the supply increased further to suppress the market price. In addition, the overcapacity clouded the market, and the overall negotiation deadlocked. Then the market will turn better and some PTA plants will stop as planned to help stabilize the PTA market. At the end of the month, the crude oil market was narrower and the PX price rebounded. The cost side was stable for the PTA market, while the quasi spot liquidity was tight, the current base was strong, and the PTA market was narrowing. With the new factory commissioning and the early parking devices resumed, the supply of PTA increased, resulting in a decline in the market, and some businesses were reducing the base, and the shipment was slightly positive.

MEG

In November, the domestic ethylene glycol market appeared a "W" trend. In general, the trend of upward rebound after bottoming was achieved. At the end of the month, ethylene glycol stabilized at the bottom. At the end of the month, it made great efforts to break through the 4700 yuan / ton mark. At the beginning of the month, glycol was in the vicinity of 4600 yuan / ton. But not for long, until the 6 th of this month, the main force of the short end of the big margin futures contract, EG2001 contract fell below the effective support position, spot futures fell rapidly to 4500 yuan / ton below. Later, because of the logical support of the main port inventory, the bottom of ethylene glycol stabilized and began to rebound. At the end of the month, it broke through 4700 yuan / ton and negotiated at 4740 yuan / ton.

Polyester filament

Polyester filament market is running weak in November. At the beginning of the month, the PTA of polyester raw materials also rebounded slightly. After a slight improvement in the downstream demand of the filament, the price of individual factories has also been tentatively raised, and the discount has been slightly reduced, but the good support is short. In the middle of the year, due to the limited reception capacity of the downstream, the driving force was insufficient, and the core of the actual transaction price remained basically. In the last ten years, the trade relations were released well, the international crude oil prices rose, and the pressure of the loss of polyester filament enterprises was bigger. Some enterprises increased their quotations narrowly, but their orders were not good enough, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not good for the time being. Near the end of the month, downstream demand is still difficult to lift, pressure on factory shipment increases, and some factories begin to cut production and price, but because of losses, there is little fluctuation in the focus of negotiations.

Forecast and Prospect

In December polyester industry chain market continued or weak pattern. The leading industry chain is still in the raw material PTA market. Raw materials PX and PTA have new installations, which have brought bad profits to the industrial chain market. In the traditional off-season, the demand for polyester in the lower reaches is expected to be low, the terminal stocks are on the high side, the market turnover is weak, and the overall supply and demand pattern is weak.

PX

It is expected that the market will become more and more intense in December. The new PX device will make the business mentality cautious and the supply will increase. And the terminal demand will be common at the end of the year. However, there is no big market. However, PX has already been in a big deficit. Some enterprises are likely to reduce their production and reduce their losses. It is expected that the PX market will have broad shocks in December, and it will be easy to fall.

PTA

The PTA market is expected to be weak in December. The PX market is still weak and the cost side support is weak. At present, the PTA plant maintenance equipment has been resumed and the new Feng Ming new plant has been put into operation, and the supply pressure is limited, while the downstream polyester start up has not changed much, and the overall fundamentals have not been well supported. However, due to the low level of PTA processing fees, the space for further compression is relatively small. In the short term, the PTA market is weak or weak.

MEG

The trend of domestic ethylene glycol in December remains to be verified. From the aspect of supply and demand, the supply of ethylene glycol in December will bring great pressure to the price. Hengli Petrochemical 900 thousand ton / year installation will start soon. In terms of demand, ethylene glycol has already been in the off-season, and the demand for polyester in the lower reaches will gradually be weakened. However, the de port of the main port is still continuing. This is also the main reason for supporting prices. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, ethylene glycol is in a contradictory position, coupled with uncertainties in Sino US trade war, most of the bulk chemical commodities such as crude oil are bear market, while ethylene glycol trend is more cautious in the later stage, and the long-term trend is still not optimistic. But from a historical point of view, at present, there is limited space under ethylene glycol, and coal or oil based ethylene glycol plants have been in a state of heavy losses, which is also a factor in stimulating prices. It is expected that the market will be adjusted in December.

Polyester fiber

It is expected that polyester fiber market will run weak in December. At the end of the raw material, the raw material PTA of next month is affected by the weakening of PX and the increase of supply. In the short run, the PTA market is weak or weak. On the supply side, the factories are mostly at the edge of losses. Therefore, the production and price reduction factories continue to increase, and there is no plan to restart production in the early stage, so the supply pressure has eased slightly. From the demand side, the polyester market is not favorable, the downstream orders continue to decrease, and the domestic market is also down, which makes the basic mentality of the downstream weaving enterprises poor, and some downstream weaving factories or early holidays. Affected by this, it is expected that the polyester fiber market will run weak in December.

PS: content is for reference only.