PTA Market Rebound, Year-End Storage Of Goods To Start Spinning Enterprises To Buy Raw Materials Are Still Cautious.

On Thursday and Friday, PTA, which was watched by a blank bearer, ushered in a rare "two consecutive rise". At 23:30 on December 6th, PTA futures closed 4834 points at the end of the night market, and returned to more than 4800 points.

PTA why did it rise this time? How long will this long delayed rally affect the textile market before the festival?

OPEC proposed a plan to cut production, and international oil prices rose.

In December 5th, OPEC will hold a meeting in Vienna, Austria to discuss the issue of oil production reduction. On December 5th, the WTI crude oil futures for January 2020 delivery rose 4.15% to 58.43 dollars / barrel, while the February 2020 Brent crude oil futures rose 3.58%, closing at 63 U.S. dollars / barrel.

On Friday night in Beijing, OPEC+ officially announced that it will cut output by 500 thousand barrels per day in the first quarter of next year to help avoid oversupply and support oil prices in the first quarter of 2020. After the announcement, the two oil rose more than 2%, further extending the previous rally.

Crude oil is the raw material of polyester products. Its fluctuation easily causes price changes of various products in the polyester industry chain. This round of OPEC meeting delivered a reduction of production expectations, boosted the international oil prices, but also to the PTA trapped in a needle "strong heart".

Polyester production and sales warmer, at the end of the stock market starts

In addition to crude oil, another factor in the PTA price increase is that the downstream weaving enterprises have begun to hoard the goods cycle, driving the polyester factories to stockpile.

From polyester production and marketing, this Tuesday (December 3rd) and Thursday (December 5th), polyester factory production and marketing over two days, more than 100%, which is relatively rare in the second half of this year, the overall market situation is not good.

Judging from the situation in the weaving Market, this year, with the high inventory of grey cloth and the early spring festival, the weaving festival of Chinese weaving enterprises is generally earlier than in previous years. Since the beginning of December, enterprises have started holidays.

For most weaving enterprises, it is a common practice to store some of the raw materials before the holidays, whether it is to prevent prices of raw materials from rising next year, or to make production more successful next year. With the advance of this year's holiday, weaving enterprises' behavior of pre - hoarding raw materials has been gradually developing.

In such a market, there is enough demand in the downstream to support PTA's short term rise.

But at the same time, we should also see that although there is enough support in the near future to support PTA's small rebound, in the long run, PTA In December, the new device is expected to be put into operation. It is still a big bad thing. In addition, the recent polyester production and sales start to warm up is also based on the market overdraft this year's last wave of store prices. Therefore, in the long run, PTA's future rally may not be sustainable.

Under such circumstances, what kind of response will the downstream polyester factories and weaving enterprises have before the festival?

In order to get rid of inventory, this year polyester factory discount is unprecedented or unprecedented.

For polyester factories, the most important task before this year should be inventory control.

According to data monitoring of China's silk net, the average stock of polyester factories is close to last year's highest inventory under 21 days.

To control inventory is to start from two aspects: production and demand.

In terms of production, the overhaul of polyester factories this year may be very big. Last week, polyester factory maintenance will gradually increase. Recently, some polyester filament and PET staple devices such as Yizheng chemical fiber and Ningbo Quan Di have entered the maintenance phase. Later period, especially from late December to January, the polyester plant has a larger maintenance plan, such as Fujian's 100 Hong, Fujian Jinxing, Xiamen Xiang Lu, Taicang Shen Jiu, Taicang Changle and other sets of polyester plant Spring Festival parking inspection plan has also been introduced.

Sales, from the past few years of experience, the promotion of polyester filament is often a good way to stimulate production and marketing, inventory. If the polyester factory's stock of polyester factories is still higher than that of the same period last year when the weaving enterprises started mass holidays, it would not be ruled out that the polyester factory would carry out a great effort to remove excess inventory.

Let's not let the weaving factory get entangled in storing up raw materials.

Similar to polyester factories, weaving enterprises are not very good at the end of the year. Polyester factories are entangled in how to sell silk, while weaving enterprises are entangled in whether they should buy silk or buy silk.

For this year's weaving enterprises, the biggest problem should be that the inventory of grey cloth is too high. All the funds are on the cloth and can not get enough money to store up goods. According to the data monitoring of China's silk net, the inventory of the grey fabric of the weaving enterprises is now about 38 days, and by the end of the year, the inventory of grey fabric is still accumulating.

On the other hand, the price change of polyester in the beginning of this year has made the textile people have unpleasant memories. At the beginning of this year, because the stock of polyester factories was too high, the price of polyester became lower all the way after the beginning of the year.

This year's market is even worse than before, so weaving enterprises will become more cautious when buying raw materials.

afterword

When Xiaobian opened the computer, he saw the title of an article in October last year. It said that PTA fell below 7000 points, and now it rises to more than 4800 points. By the end of the year, the next highlight of the polyester weaving market should be the game between polyester factories and the weaving enterprises, and PTA can only play a supporting role when the rally is difficult to sustain.