Close To The Spring Festival Holidays, The Main Contract Of Zhengmian Is Reduced.

[spot overview]

January 8th cotton spot index CCI3128B quoted price to 13806 yuan / ton (+63); current price difference 359 spot index and 01 contract closing price difference), polyester staple fiber price 7020 yuan / ton (+20), viscose staple fiber quoted price 9500 yuan / ton (+0); CY Index C32S offer 20715 yuan / ton (+0), FCY Index C32S (imported cotton yarn price index) quoted 20823 yuan / ton (+50), inside and outside cotton yarn price difference; zhengmian warehouse receipt 29148 (Zhang), effectively forecast 7144 (H); warehouse receipts continued to increase substantially. As of January 8th, Xinjiang accumulated 4 million 867 thousand and 900 tons of processing capacity and 4 million 657 thousand and 600 tons of public inspection.

[market analysis]

At present, the price of EMOT M in the US is 79.85 cents / pound, the price of India S-6 1-1/8 is 77 cents / pound, and the price of Brazil M is 80.25 cents / lb, and the price of cotton to port has generally dropped slightly, down 0.25 cents / pound. Yesterday, the president's speech appeased the market's concerns about the escalation of the tension between the US and Iraq. After the speech, the Nasdaq, the S & P 500 index reached a record high, and the ICE cotton rose slightly. Yesterday ICE cotton main contract 03 under the long shadow Xiao Yang received 70.04 cents / pound, rose 0.23 cents / pound; technical indicators remained strong, the average line maintained the trend of multi head; MACD index of 0 columns above the red column volume; 03 current contract pressure and the upper short-term pressure 73 cents / pound, the next short-term support 68 cents / pound.

There was no deal in reserve cotton yesterday; from the trading point of view, the overall market sentiment was low, and turnover was reduced by 115 thousand hands; fundamentals, at present, the total processing of cotton in Xinjiang reached 4 million 851 thousand and 100 tons, and the storage and storage of cotton in the past two weeks did not close. The market supply of cotton was loose. Meanwhile, the Spring Festival holiday was drawing near, and the market demand slowed down, which made pressure on zhengmian and spot cotton. Yesterday, under Zheng cotton 2005 contract, long shadow small Yin fell 14165, fell 50 yuan / ton, the position reduced 3238 hand to 599 thousand hands; the technical index maintained strong, the average line showed the trend of multi head arrangement, the MACD index fitting forms the long gold fork arrangement, the KD index forms the multi head rise to arrange, the technical index maintains the strength; the middle 05 contract price movement interval 13200-14700, 5-9 price difference -415.

[operation strategy]

In the early days, textile enterprises suggested that they should increase the intensity of buying and selling and increase the virtual stocks. In the early days, we suggested that in consideration of the amount of cotton used next year, the price of zhengmian 09 should be considered in advance, and the price would fall to the bottom support, and the virtual stock would be set up at the split price. The total volume should not exceed 25% of the cotton consumption throughout the whole year. Now we also suggest that we consider 05 contracts and set up the appropriate virtual repository on every callback. Upstream cotton enterprises continue to do well inventory risk management, in the case of thickening profits, sell in batches, and reserve resources in a long line. The long line funds have already been admitted to the warehouse and remain behind.