Under The Event Of "Black Swan", Will The Polyester Filament Market Turn Over?

Over the past years, the geopolitical situation has had a greater impact on commodities. In September, Saudi Arabia's oil production facilities attacked, crude oil prices soared. Asian oil processing profit margins dropped to the lowest level in more than 10 years. The prices of polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol also increased. The cost pressures of polyester filament yarn were highlighted, and the volume and price increased. However, the overall growth rate of polyester was much less than that of raw materials, and cash flow continued to narrow.

Fig. 1 trend of daily production and sale of polyester filament yarn

Source: lung Chung

Two thousand and twenty At the beginning of the year, the general of Iran attacked, the relationship between Iraq and the United States entered a stalemate, Iran launched an attack, oil prices continued to rise, polyester raw materials were also increased accordingly, the total production and sales of polyester filament was around 200% a day, and some high-end ones were in 800%-1000%. But the next day, after the polyester filament business increased, production and sales dropped to around 4. With the easing of the situation in the US, the raw material PTA is weak, and ethylene glycol continues to open up. However, the support of PET filament cost ends has obviously weakened. Specifically, the Hengli PTA plant has been put into operation recently. It is expected that the finished products will be released in the middle of the month. In the short term, the release of new capacity will be bad for PTA. In terms of ethylene glycol, low inventory is the focus of the long and short term. It may promote the price of ethylene glycol in the short term. However, at present, many news of ship pollution incidents and routes diverting further push up prices. So in the short term, the trend of ethylene glycol futures is expected to rise, but on the long term, the impact of sudden events on ethylene glycol is limited.

Fig. 22018-2019 comparison of the stock of polyester filament Enterprises

Source: lung Chung

Although the industry started slightly higher than the level in 2018 at the end of 2019, the inventory level of enterprises remained low, and the black swan event was frequent at the end of the year. Raw materials also kept many variables. Therefore, some polyester filament enterprises believe that the market is stable and stable in the past few years, breaking the stock elimination mode of price promotions before the Spring Festival. At present, the overhaul device has been restarted in February, and there are still some installations upgrading or upgrading in the later stage. Therefore, the polyester filament start up slowly and the inventory level is low at the end of the festival, so it is expected to increase slightly after the holiday. However, according to part of the industry's feedback, because of the worry that the polyester filament market is higher after the festival, some downstream users have already stocked up ahead of time, which means that the demand for the overdraft has been raised ahead of schedule.