How Will The Cotton Price Trend Be Interpreted Under The Epidemic Situation? Does India Cotton Merchants Stop Exporting To China And Affect Geometry?

The impact of the epidemic, the pressure of Cheng cotton, ICE long-term trend or unchanged

China's outbreak of a new pneumonia epidemic, textile and clothing domestic needs and exports need to be observed; zhengmian warehouse receipt + forecast volume overall growth slowed down, downstream yarn price is weak. Comprehensive analysis, the new year's global cotton production in the next few variables, consumer side there is a gradual deterioration of the expected cotton market or confirm the bottom of the early stage. In the short term, the epidemic has delayed the resumption of downstream work. Zheng cotton has continued to bear pressure.

Xinjiang's cotton market has been affected not only by lint processing, warehousing, sales and other work, but also by the delay in the date of some mainland personnel going to Xinjiang. At present, the transaction of "double 28" cotton picking is expected to be less than 13000 yuan / ton, cotton prices will be reduced rapidly and spot purchases will be reduced.

Outside cotton, the famous American cotton expert Dr. Cleveland believes that the new coronavirus incident has seriously affected the global cotton market. Global cotton consumption may be reduced by at least 500 thousand packages or more than the estimate before the virus, which will increase global end stocks and reduce US cotton exports. The short-term trend of ICE futures is undoubtedly impacted, but 67.00-68.50 cents have considerable support, and the long-term trend has not changed for the time being. If China can control the epidemic and take action to stabilize the economy and demand can be restored, cotton prices will still return to more than 70 cents. Cotton's fundamentals are able to provide support for prices.

India's largest exporter of cotton stopped exporting to China under the epidemic, affecting or limited.

In the wake of the announcement of the India foreign trade administration's announcement of the epidemic, India stopped exporting personal protective equipment such as masks and protective clothing. Kotak, the largest exporter of cotton in India, said that China's ports and banks had deliberately postponed their business, and the company decided to stop exporting cotton to the Chinese market. It is understood that the cotton giant will find other overseas buyers in the international market, such as Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam, to fill the vacant position of Chinese buyers.

As one of the largest importers of cotton in the world, China is also the biggest buyer of cotton in India, and imports more than 200 thousand tons of cotton per year. Specific data show that as of this year, India has shipped 60-70 million bales of cotton (about 170 kg / bag) to China, and 75% of them are in transit. Originally, India exporters also predicted that 300 thousand packages would be shipped by the end of February. However, from the current situation, this export target is probably very difficult to achieve. In fact, in addition to closing the cotton market to China, India even took measures to restrict exports of medical products in the face of the epidemic. Last Friday (January 31st), the official website of India foreign trade administration issued a circular that India banned the export of personal protective equipment such as masks and protective clothing during the outbreak of pneumonia. However, India officials did not give the reason for the ban.

According to the global textile network analyst camel thorn, because the epidemic continues, China's enterprises have not yet resumed work, cotton trading has not yet begun, at present, the impact on China's cotton market is not big. In the long run, it is estimated that China's cotton gap will not be small in 2020. Regardless of whether India's cotton exports to China, China's cotton prices will show an upward trend in the future.