Top 100 Housing Prices Fell 12% In January, The Property Market'S "Dormancy" First Quarter Results Were Under Pressure.

The sudden outbreak of a new coronavirus is a great blow to the real estate industry.

Since February, the mainstream housing prices have announced the January results. Since January 20th, Zhong Nanshan has revealed that the new crown virus can be "human transmission", the epidemic has already appeared for the sale of the property market.

Sales of most housing companies showed a year-on-year decline. Comparatively speaking, leading housing companies have maintained a healthy trend, and small and medium enterprises have been more vulnerable.

In view of the current development of the epidemic is still not clear, the inflection point did not know when, real estate sales, construction, investment and so on are still in the "shock" period, to housing enterprises in 2 and March performance has cast a shadow.

Real estate is highly dependent on capital and financing industry. Cash flow is smooth and smooth. Today, the sales shutdown caused by the epidemic is affecting the cash flow. Some companies with high debt ratio and short repayment pressure need to guard against cash flow risk.

Real estate is highly dependent on capital and financing industry. Cash flow is smooth and smooth. Gan Jun photo

Pressure in the first quarter

After the Spring Festival, housing prices issued a January sales bulletin.

Leading housing enterprises take the lead. In February 3rd, Hengda disclosed the sales situation in January, which achieved a contract sales area of 4 million 498 thousand square meters in the first month of 2020, an increase of 16% over the same period last year, but the sales amount was 40 billion 550 million yuan, a slight decrease of 6.07% compared to the same period last year.

Biguiyuan also dropped slightly compared with the same period last year. In February 4th, Biguiyuan announced that the sale amount of equity contracts in January was about 32 billion 920 million yuan, representing a decrease of 0.44% compared with that in January 2019. The contractual sales area belonging to the shareholders' interests of the company is about 3 million 790 thousand square meters, a decrease of 0.89% compared with that in January 2019.

Financial innovation is the biggest decline among the four giants. In January, the contract sales area reached 1 million 358 thousand square meters, down 14.7% compared to the same period last year, and the sales amount was 18 billion 630 million yuan, down 22.2% compared with the same period last year.

In February 5th, Vanke's transcript was also released. In January, Vanke realized the contract sales area of 3 million 335 thousand square meters, and the contract sales amount was 54 billion 910 million yuan, up 12.3% compared to the same period last year, becoming the only one among the four giants. And in terms of rights and interests sales, Vanke became the first month sales champion.

In the first half of the month, small and medium-sized Housing enterprises handed down their transcripts, which were not satisfactory. The sales of housing companies such as China, the United States, home buyers, and central and southern businesses declined compared with the same period last year.

Only a small number of Housing enterprises have bright performance, such as Baolong real estate sales increased by 10.4% over the same period, Yu Chau real estate growth of 22.8% over the same period.

According to the data of Kerri and Yi Han think tank, the number of top 100 housing enterprises in January dropped by 12% compared with the same period last year, while the 200 strong housing enterprises fell 10.2%.

From the point of view of cities, the sales of first tier cities in the 40 cities monitored by 100 million were 15.1% lower than that of the first tier cities, and 39.3% lower than the corresponding ones. Guangzhou fell 60.3%, the biggest decline.

Most ordinary second tier cities are also down, with the largest drop in Qingdao, reaching 54.6%, and the three or four line cities in January were 4 million 837 thousand square meters, an increase of 4.6% over the same period, and a decrease of 23.6%.

Yi Han think tank pointed out that there were two main reasons for the contraction of the property market in January. First, the sales promotion of the housing enterprises was fierce at the end of 2019, and the sales base in December was larger, which led to a drop in the ring ratio in January 2020. Two, it was originally the traditional off-season sales in January, and the epidemic occurred during the Spring Festival, which had a great impact on the demand of the three or four line home buyers.

Judging from the current dynamics, the pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus has not been alleviated. Many key nodes have not yet arrived. The sales offices across the country are mostly closed. In January 26th, the China Real Estate Industry Association issued a call to the member units and the whole industry to suspend sales activities of the sales offices, and resume the recovery after the outbreak.

According to incomplete statistics from CRIC, at least 60 provinces and cities including Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Wuhan, Chengdu and Chongqing have issued notices to close the sales offices.

Many industry insiders predict that the housing sales will continue to be depressed in February, and the impact will continue to the entire first quarter.

However, opportunities are always left to those who are prepared. Many housing companies have started this year's work, redistributing them from sales, investment, financing, and completion.

They adopted "cloud office", home online, video conferencing, telephone exchanges and other on-line sales; sales also launched online sales, friends circle is almost full of Housing enterprises in many projects online viewing invitation.

Some sectors are still optimistic about the property market this year. They believe that the epidemic only delayed demand rather than disappeared. Moreover, the epidemic will also make people reexamine the importance of house quality, property services and so on, and have an important impact on their purchase decisions.

Focus on cash flow

The outbreak is in collision with the traditional off-season sales in 1-2 months, and the biggest impact on housing prices is cash flow.

The deposit in sales, the advance sale and the loan after the down payment are the most important source of funds for the housing enterprises. Now, these are almost exhausted.

Lots of net sign data show that since the Spring Festival, real estate sales are only tens of sets.

Yi Ju enterprise group CEO Ding Zuyu believes that the epidemic brought about a stagnation of sales, the biggest impact on housing prices or cash flow problems. If there is no sales refund, the cash flow pressure faced by the housing enterprises is undoubtedly very huge. Especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, the capital is tight and the tide of mergers and acquisitions is coming. The development prospect is not optimistic.

In addition, housing companies face the peak of debt repayment in 2020. According to Ke Rui statistics, in 2020, 95 typical housing companies had a total maturity of 557 billion 500 million yuan, which was 43% higher than that in 2019. Among them, January, July and November were the peak of debt repayment, which required 61 billion 600 million yuan, 61 billion 500 million yuan and 66 billion 200 million yuan respectively.

According to the Yi Han think tank, as of June 30, 2020, the debt maturity of Housing enterprises was 98 billion 200 million yuan, and the maturity of overseas debt was about 122 billion 600 million yuan.

"Before the outbreak, housing enterprises' solvency is overall controllable, and the housing enterprises' capital withdrawal will slow down after the outbreak, so we need to pay special attention to short-term liquidity problems." The analyst pointed out.

Affected by this, part of the small and medium-sized housing prices cash flow further tightened. "No sales can not start, but interest will not be less, no money back, no money, interest, pressure mountain." Some people in the industry hope that the follow-up government will take corresponding measures to alleviate the pressure of Housing enterprises.

Twenty-first Century economic news reporter noted that the leading housing companies have grasped the first quarter of financing activity and stepped up financing.

In January 16th and 21st, Hengda announced four US dollar debt financing, preparing for the issuance of US $6 billion bonds, with interest rates ranging from 11.5% to 12%.

Biguiyuan also announced the issuance of two US dollar bills in January, but the varieties of its bonds are small public offering, with a total value of 8 billion 538 million, and the proceeds are intended to repay the bonds due or sold back.

In addition, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange January 15th information shows that Vanke 9 billion corporate bonds and 3 billion rental housing special corporate bonds have been adopted.

Ding Zuyu believes that changes in the real estate market in the short term are closely related to the effective control of the spread of the epidemic. If the epidemic is not alleviated, the housing market will remain dormant, and the real estate market will slowly recover once the epidemic is controlled or there is a major easing.

"Once the epidemic situation has stabilized or even basically improved, the market will recover rapidly and there will be a certain degree of retaliatory rebound at the volume level." Ding Zuyu said, taking into account the economic situation in the first quarter, I believe that the government will also introduce some relatively strong stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts and RRR. These will have some positive effects on the real estate market, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about this year's real estate industry.

?