Epidemic Disease In The Breeding Sector: The "Super Cycle" Trend Emerged From The Micro Perspective, And Entered The Critical Period Of Inventory In Early March.

Gongyi is located between Zhengzhou and Luoyang. The local industry is more developed, and mining equipment, copper wire and aluminum plate enterprises are numerous. Therefore, the farming and animal husbandry industry in Gongyi does not seem to be prominent enough. Most of the food business is outsiders.

Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus pneumonia, Henan has adopted the active isolation at the village level level, and the village cadres are on duty at the junctions every day.

But for the farmers in Gongyi, it is another scene.

Zhi Liu Feng runs a farm on the ground. The original products are mainly supplied to three places in Zhengzhou, Jiaozuo and Luoyang. However, affected by the epidemic, only a portion of it was transported to Zhengzhou after the year. The local market has digested two days, and there are still five or six days left in stock.

"Compared with other farms, my situation is good. Because there are not many local breeding enterprises in Gongyi, under normal circumstances, there will be no backlog." Zhi Liu Feng told reporters 7 days ago.

Compared with his smaller farmers, he was caught in a vicious cycle of "eggs can not be changed into money, no money can't buy feeds, and chickens don't eat".

On the first day of opening in February 3rd, Shin Wan's agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector fell by 9.25%, to the end of February 7th, when the board narrowed to 3.77% in the week.

A micro perspective of "buying grain" by way of borrowing

The whole process is interlinked and there is no problem in the middle. But now the situation is that the two links of raw materials and product sales are blocked by "closed villages".

Generally speaking, farming is carried out in villages or near suburbs.

Take Henan as an example, Henan now strictly implements the "village and village road closure", and the foreign license plates are not allowed to enter the village, forcing many soybean meal dealers to find only the freight cars with Yu A licence.

And every year after the Spring Festival, the six sixth sides of the fifth and sixth days of the Spring Festival will begin to enter the factory from the outside. This year, even the people who do corn business are not affected by the epidemic prevention and control.

"Although only a small amount of corn is grown in Gongyi, there is actually no shortage of them, and there are several villages around it that can not pull in." Zhi Liu Feng said.

He also contacted a grain merchant specializing in transporting corn from Northeast China, but the other party feedback, the supply of goods could be guaranteed, but the price was not sure whether Zhengzhou could pull into the farm.

After a few days' hard work, the six leaders searched for the inventory of Lin Bang village next door. There were dozens of tons of corn in the warehouse, but how to get into Lin Bang village is a problem.

"Behind the village there was a royal tomb in the Song Dynasty. There was a small road beside it. Usually no one walked away, and the road was not sealed. Later, we took this road and transported dozens of tons of corn back. Otherwise, if we take the main road, we will not let the village come." Zhi Liu Feng told reporters.

The purchase price is not expensive, which is about 9 gross and 5 per catty, but it does not include freight and manual calculation. At the same time, because of the critical period of epidemic prevention and control, "now people are not easy to find."

Thanks to the building of a storehouse in the early days, the total stock of corn in the farm was more than 50 tons, and the stock of soybean meal was about 30 tons.

According to the ratio of raw materials of corn 63% and soybean meal 20 to 28%, the raw materials of farms are not anxious in the short term.

The rest is the problem of how to transport chickens and eggs. In his view, this is the biggest problem at present. "No matter whether you sell two pieces or sell three pieces, you have to pull the goods out, and now it is difficult to circulate them."

After the Spring Festival, he only supplied goods to Zhengzhou, all of which were digested by the local market.

The impact of poor transport is that in the short term, the price of eggs fluctuates violently, and the eggs in the producing areas can not be pulled out and can not sell the price. The prices in the market near Zhengzhou are relatively high.

"We hope that relevant departments can produce some effective policies to solve the problem of transportation of raw materials and products," he said. Zhi Liu Feng said.

Farmers in Shangcai County of Henan have less stock of raw materials, only 10 days to 15 days. "They are already seeking assistance from the agricultural and rural Bureau, but raw material transportation is still strenuous."

He also said that the current product can only be digested around the county's periphery, and the channels of other provinces have not been able to get through. After the car festival in Shanghai, the festival also disappeared.

As for the epidemic prevention notices issued by various provinces and municipalities, it is mainly to ensure the transportation of medical and emergency supplies, and to distinguish between ordinary materials and emergency supplies.

It is inevitable that small and medium-sized farming enterprises will make some sacrifices.

Listed companies are stocked for 40 days before the holidays.

Theoretically, the listed farming enterprises have a large scale, strong financial strength and stronger risk tolerance.

It is impossible to be completely unaffected.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, quarantine measures such as sealing up the city, closing the market, sealing up the county and closing the village have been spreading all over the country, which has a certain impact on the sales of poultry products, which is mainly reflected in the epidemic area of Hubei. Before the Spring Festival, the market of meat and poultry is in a state of depression, and the selling price is declining obviously. 300498.SZ, a related personage in February 5th, said it was accepted by Wanjia fund and other agencies.

To this end, the company set up an emergency team in early January to sell as far as possible through various channels such as the local rural market, while increasing the slaughter capacity to store frozen reserves and slow down the pace of throwing seedlings.

For the foregoing small and medium-sized enterprises encountered transportation and sales problems, Wen's shares are also communicating with government departments at all levels to ensure the smooth transportation and sale of broilers, pork and feed.

As far as raw material inventory is concerned, the preparedness of listed farming enterprises is obviously better than that of small and medium-sized farming enterprises.

In twenty-first Century, according to the statistics of the economic report, most of the stocks of raw materials stored before the festival reached 40 days.

Take Henan's 002714.SZ as an example, the company recently released the new crown epidemic impact on the production and operation instructions, said that every area of the farms in the company had feed plants or feed units supplying feed. The company actively took the pass for the production and transportation related vehicles according to the requirements of various local prevention and control of the new epidemic situation of coronavirus pneumonia. In order to ensure production, it is customary to stock raw materials for 40-50 days before the Spring Festival.

002157.SZ also said that with the advantages of integrated production of feed and aquaculture, the feed of pig farms and Service Department of the subordinate farms will be stocked for about 40 days before the Spring Festival.

"The situation in the whole industry is similar, and the company's stock reserve is not as long as other companies, but the minimum stock of corn and soybean meal can also be used for 35 days. It is expected that the situation of supply shortage of Hubei breeding enterprises will not appear. At present, the raw materials of the cooperative farmers are supplied by the company. An inconvenient listed aquaculture company 7 people said.

For raw materials, the new hope (000876.SZ) pointed out that more than 90% of the domestic feed plants had been started normally, and the remaining factories were not expected to start work before February 10th. In terms of raw materials, the price of soybean meal in some areas increased, but the overall price of corn changed little. "It can meet the external supply of most regions and key areas, and a few areas are in a tight balance with the logistics impact."

This is consistent with the feedback from the preceding six sides, "starting in February 10th or February 14th, and reducing the price of soybean meal, and it is expected that the price of soybean meal will drop somewhat."

In the short term, there will be no worries in the inventory of all listed farming enterprises, but will enter a key node of inventory consumption in late February and early March.

On the other hand, under the influence of epidemic prevention and control and delayed start up, the newly built capacity of various enterprises is currently in a state of shutdown.

According to the requirements of the prevention and control of new coronavirus pneumonia, all construction sites of Mu yuan share are suspended. The construction sites of the state technology company have also been suspended. The specific time to return to work is subject to government notice.

Aquaculture industry "super cycle" or extension

Short term stoppage of new capacity is not a big problem, but it depends on the length of the downtime. Otherwise, the time may be delayed in the second half of the year.

"In August 2019, the transfer of commercial pigs to sows is more common. According to the capacity cycle estimation, the scale of pig production will be significantly improved after June 2020," a 6 East China aquaculture industry pointed out.

This is consistent with the conclusions given by the previous third party research institutes. In January this year, according to the results of the slaughter cycle, the scale of domestic pig slaughtered in July 2020 and August will also increase significantly.

The above expectation is based on the fact that the new crown epidemic has not been widespread before. Now, with the stoppage of new pig farms in major breeding enterprises, the node may be postponed.

Liu Sikui, an agricultural product analyst at Zhongyuan futures company, gave two reasons in February 6th. During the period of epidemic prevention and control, the transportation was limited and the piglets were difficult to transport. Second, the construction of the piggery was delayed and the gathering of personnel was reduced. The construction of the pig farms in the future might not be as good as expected.

"Assuming that the epidemic lasts for three months, the pig slaughtered nodes may also be postponed. The length of the specific impact depends on the development of the epidemic situation." It thinks.

However, the aforementioned East China aquaculture industry believes that even if the epidemic lasts for three months, there is little possibility for local governments to limit their operations.

As far as pig farms are concerned, although the enterprises are unable to replenish piglets in a few years later, a round of centralized replenishment has been carried out many years ago. If the farms are tight, this can be solved by way of early hurdling, but this possibility is also not large.

In fact, all of the above potential industry trends have been reacted to A shares after the holiday. Overall, the two tier market is relatively optimistic about the impact of the epidemic. On the first day of opening in February 3rd, Shin Wan's agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector fell by 9.25%, to the end of February 7th, when the sector narrowed to 3.77% in the week.

Pig breeding industry's performance is more obvious.

Before the Spring Festival, the stock price of Mu yuan was closed at 81.68 yuan, and the closing price rose to 92.45 yuan on the 7 day. It not only resisted the emotional impact brought by the epidemic, but gained a 13.2% rise.

According to statistics, according to Wind, 23 of the pig industry listed companies, 19 stocks weekly decline of less than 1%, significantly outperforming most sectors except medicine, computing, etc.

There are two reasons: first, the continuation of the boom of the industry, which has brought about the expected growth of performance for the relevant listed companies.

The sales data disclosed by Wen's shares show that in January this year, the sales revenue of the company's pigs was 3 billion 718 million yuan, a decrease of 30%, but the average selling price continued to rise, reaching 36.62 yuan / kg, and the growth rate was 6.70%.

Coupled with the low profit base for the same period in 2019, a quarterly report on the future disclosure of aquaculture enterprises, including Wentworth, will increase significantly.

Secondly, this week's "Central Document No. 1" issue brings policy support and emotional impetus to the two tier market.

The paper points out that the stable production and supply of live pigs is a major event in the current economic work. Pig production must be stable and guaranteed as a major political task. Pig production should be the same as grasping grain production. Comprehensive measures should be taken to ensure that the output of raw pigs will basically return to near normal levels by the end of 2020.

For now, the story of the 2019 aquaculture industry has not ended. The new crown pneumonia epidemic may extend the current "super cycle".

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