Weaving And Polyester Are Both Prosperous And Bad. The Harder And Harder It Is, The More We Need To Work Together.

In early April, as oil producers restarted negotiations on production cuts, international oil prices rebounded sharply, and the price of polyester products began to rebound from the bottom. Recently, the news of oil production reduction negotiations has also emerged. Raw material prices begin to "bungee". In such a situation, when weaving enterprises buy materials and buy much raw materials, it becomes a very tangled problem.

Similarly, in this wave of market, there is also a polyester factory in the same entanglement. Under huge inventory pressure, what kind of business strategy should be established is also a process worth thinking deeply.

Inventory, weaving and polyester biggest pain

In 2019, both the weaving enterprises and polyester factories were having a hard time. The overcapacity caused by the Sino US trade friction and the water jet loom transfer resulted in a large number of grey fabrics of conventional products in the entire weaving Market. The fabric produced by the weaving enterprises could not be sold, and the enthusiasm for production decreased, which in turn affected the polyester plant, resulting in polyester factories and weaving. The inventory of enterprises is rising all the way.

In 2020, after the opening of the new crown, the weaving enterprises started to work late, and the polyester factories accumulated a large amount of stock. When the weaving enterprises gradually resumed work, the epidemic began to erupt abroad, and the weaving enterprises also entered the cycle of tired storage again.

Specifically,

Polyester factory inventory, According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 32-43 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 26-33 days, FDY stocks are close to 27-34 days, while DTY stocks are about 32-43 days.

　　 In terms of inventory of grey cloth, the inventory of grey fabric weaving in Shengze is about 41-42 days, and the market order has not improved.

　　 Inventory problem, actually demand problem?

The inventory problem of polyester factories and weaving enterprises is, in the final analysis, a terminal demand problem.

According to the real-time statistics of Johns Hopkins University, as of 6:52 in Beijing on April 12th, there were more than 1 million 770 thousand confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world, with more than 100 thousand deaths. Among them, nearly 530 thousand confirmed cases in the United States, more than 20 thousand deaths, and the world's largest number of deaths, and 50 states across the United States have entered a major disaster.

In 2019, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $271 billion 500 million. When the foreign trade market was affected by the epidemic situation, the textile industry will inevitably encounter more serious overcapacity than in 2019.

Weaving and psychology of polyester enterprises

　　 The relationship between polyester factories and weaving enterprises is actually not harmonious. Xiaobian's impression is relatively deep in the third quarter of 2018, because PX, PTA and polyester filament have been skyrocketing all over the world, and the highest spot price of PTA is even up to 10000 yuan / ton. This price increase is also unbearable for weaving enterprises. It may have just received a new order, the price of raw materials has increased, and orders have changed from profit making to losses. Therefore, many weaving clusters have issued a joint stop production proposal to resist such a substantial increase in price.

　　 But in fact, polyester factories and weaving enterprises are all flourishes. After the 2018 round of market quotation, it greatly overdrew the vitality of weaving enterprises, which was one of the reasons leading to the "cold winter" of the textile industry in 2019.

In the "cold winter", not only is it difficult for the weaving enterprises to operate, but when the weaving enterprises are forced to reduce their load and reduce the purchase amount of raw materials under the pressure of inventory, polyester raw materials will soon fall into a cycle of reducing prices and accumulating inventory.

Back to the current market situation, affected by foreign epidemic situation, weaving enterprises can not get enough orders, and the inventory of grey fabrics will not decrease, but it will probably continue to reduce the starting rate of looms in the future. But in the face of rising prices, raw materials will be trapped in raw materials and raw materials.

Polyester factories are affected by sky inventory. On the one hand, they want to lower their inventories. On the other hand, they also want to take advantage of price increases to get higher profits.

From their own point of view, these ideas are understandable, but from a higher level of perspective, weaving enterprises and polyester factories are actually "grasshoppers on a rope".

At present, the order of the market is insufficient, and the survival of the weaving enterprises is very difficult. If the liquidity is drained away by raw materials at this time, it may only reduce production or even stop production in the future, while the polyester factory can take advantage of this market to get rid of part of the inventory, but the part that is now removed can only be a drop in the bucket before the accumulated amount of stock. The key is to "keep the water flowing". But now, the weaving enterprises and polyester factories fall into an untypical prisoner's dilemma.

Prisoner's dilemma

Two people who conspire to commit crimes are imprisoned and unable to communicate with each other. If two people do not disclose each other, then because of the uncertainty of the evidence, each person will be in jail for one year. If one person exposs and the other is silent, the whistle blower will be released immediately because of meritorious service, and the silent person will be imprisoned for ten years without cooperation. If each other is exposed, the two will be sentenced to eight years. Because prisoners can not trust each other, they tend to expose each other rather than remain silent.

Now the situation is that weaving enterprises and polyester factories have always chosen the way that is beneficial to themselves, and finally get a relatively beneficial result to both sides. The result is not good but not the worst.

But now the environment has changed, and in the storm caused by the global epidemic, this "separate war" mode may no longer enable some enterprises to survive well. It's time to consider another way.

There are many similar examples in nature: toothpick birds pick teeth for crocodiles, protect them by crocodiles, woodpeckers catch pests for big trees, and big trees provide habitat for them.

According to Darwinism, this reciprocal pattern of mutual benefit is not natural, but because people who do not do so may not survive in a crisis and disappear in the long history. For today's textile industry chain, it is also suffering from the crisis of life and death. It needs the industry chain upstream and downstream to work together to cope with it.

Today's epidemic is a crisis, but it is also an opportunity. If polyester factories and weaving enterprises can establish a buying and selling mode which is beneficial to both sides in the development of epidemic situation, after the epidemic has passed, this mutualism mode will surely play a very good role in promoting the recovery and development of both sides.