The Professional Market Downturn In April Is Not As Optimistic As Expected.

The prosperity monitoring results of China Textile and textile circulation branch show that in April 2020, the national textile and garment professional market managers' prosperity index was 50.59, down 0.65 percentage points from 51.24 in March, and the professional market business climate index was 48.92, down 2.26 percentage points from 51.18 in March.

First, management boom and business downturn.

Data show that in April, the textile and garment professional market managers and business climate index has dropped.

1, the manager's prosperity index has dropped by 0.65 percentage points.

From the manager's prosperity index, in April, the manager's prosperity index was 50.59, down 0.65 percentage points from 51.24 in March, and the operating environment index was 48.71, up 0.65 percentage points from 48.06 in March.

The total operating index of the sub index is 50.97, which is 0.32 percentage points lower than that of 51.29 in March; the logistics delivery volume index is 50.97, which is 0.32 percentage points lower than that of March; the passenger flow index is 51.29, which is equal to March; the opening rate index is 51.94, which is 1.29 percentage points lower than that of March; the rental index is 47.42, which is reduced by 1.29 percentage points over the March's index; and the electricity supplier sales index is 51.29. It was 50.97, down 0.97 percentage points from 51.94 in March.

2, the business climate index has dropped by 2.26 percentage points. spot

Chart 2 list of merchant indices

In the sub index, the sales volume index was 47.76, down 5.60 percentage points from 53.36 in March; the average selling price index was 46.57, which was 4.55 percentage points lower than that of March; the profit index was 47.69, which was 5.60 percentage points lower than that of March; the composite cost index was 50.07, an increase of 50.07 percentage points over that of March; the stock index was 50.07, up by a percentage point over that of March. The electricity supplier sales index was 50.14, down 0.28 percentage points from 50.42 in March.

Two. Data analysis

1, the professional market has basically been resumed, and retaliatory consumption has not yet reached.

In April, the proportion of total market share was 38.71%, an increase of 9.68 percentage points from 29.03% in March, and the proportion of logistics delivery was 38.71%, an increase of 9.68 percentage points compared with that in March. The proportion of passengers who choose to maintain the same flow rate is 35.48%, which is 6.45 percentage points higher than that in March, and the ratio of choosing business to open rate is 41.94%, which is higher than 16.13 in March. A percentage point.

In March, on the basis of relatively abnormal data in 1-2 months, the economic recovery increased greatly. In April, the market share of total business volume, logistics delivery volume, passenger flow rate and opening rate in March was larger than that in March. In April, the national market basically achieved full recovery. However, the sales situation was not significantly different from that in March. Period.

2, merchant cost index and stock index return. rise

In April, the composite cost index of the merchant was 50.07, an increase of 1.40 percentage points from 48.67 in March, an inventory index of 51.26, an increase of 1.05 percentage points over that of March. In March, most of the businesses returned to normal stall operations, and the cost pressure and stock pressure increased and the index declined; in April, merchants gradually adapted to the entity operation mode under the normalization of epidemic prevention work, along with the new installation. With the promotion of listing and various promotional activities, the overall cost and pressure of inventory and inventory pressure have been alleviated.

Three, the forecast index declined, and the market and business confidence recurred.

Data show that managers, the next management boom index is 48.71, down 1.94 percentage points from 50.65 in March; the next operating environment index is 49.03, down 50 percentage points from March's 0.97 percentage points. In terms of business, the next business climate index is 47.69, up 0.28 percentage points from 47.41 in March, and the operating environment index for the next period is 47.69, up 0.28 percentage points from 47.41 in March. In terms of the prediction index, the four prediction indicators of managers and merchants return to below 50. The result shows that after nearly a month's return to work, market managers and merchants are not as optimistic as expected, and the retaliatory consumption boom has not yet reached the level of confidence in the industry.

Appendix:

1, monitoring methods

"Textile and clothing professional market prosperity index" consists of two parts: "manager index" and "merchant index". Sampling method was adopted to select clothing and fabrics, home textiles and small commodities in different markets.

2. Monitoring samples

The manager's prosperity sample is made up of 32 textile and garment specialized markets, such as Guangzhou Baima clothing market, Beijing Tianya women's wear building, Jiangsu's perichi Bridge home textile market, Shanghai new seven Pu clothing market and Liaoning Xi Liu clothing market. The business life samples are composed of 150 businessmen, such as Tao Tao dress, Muzi hut, Ruili Han Shi, and Chi Di dress.

3. Monitoring cycle

The monitoring cycle is monthly, monthly and monthly.

4. Index structure

In the "textile and clothing professional market prosperity index", the "manager index" is composed of four index indexes: the current manager's prosperity index, the next manager's prosperity index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index. "The current manager's prosperity index" consists of the total operating index, the logistics delivery index, the passenger flow index, the opening rate index, the rental index, and the electricity supplier. The sales index consists of six two level indices.

The "merchant index" is composed of four first level indices, namely, the current business climate index, the next business climate index, the current business environment index and the next business environment index. The "business climate index" is composed of six index two indices, namely, sales volume index, average price index, profit index, comprehensive cost index, inventory index and electricity supplier sales index.

5, index analysis

The positive index includes manager's total operating index, logistics delivery index, passenger flow index, door opening rate index, rental index, electricity supplier sales ratio index and merchant sales index, average price index, profit index, electricity supplier sales ratio index. The positive index is more than 50, which indicates that the business condition is optimistic, the bigger the value is, the more optimistic the positive index is less than 50, which indicates that the business condition is not optimistic; the smaller the value, the more pessimistic it is.

The reverse index includes the cost index and inventory index. The cost index is more than 50, which indicates that the cost pressure of merchants decreases, the greater the cost, the lower the cost pressure. The cost index is lower than 50, which indicates that the cost pressure of business increases, the smaller the cost, the greater the cost pressure. An inventory index of more than 50 indicates that the inventory pressure decreases, the larger the inventory pressure is, the lower the inventory index is, which means that the inventory pressure increases, the smaller the inventory pressure, the greater the inventory pressure. ?