Upstream: 2 Million 200 Thousand Tons PTA Device Detonated By Accident, Downstream: Order Bookings, Boot At The End Of April! Follow The Big Brother Of Crude Oil, And Welcome The Strong Support Of Polyester Filament.

From the Middle East to Siberia, from Beihai to Latin America, crude oil prices are rising strongly in almost all places, supporting the surge in the futures market.

　　 ICE European futures exchange Brent crude oil prices nearly doubled in the past month, reaching about $35 a barrel, while WTI crude oil futures, which once fell negative, also surged. All this is because the global oil producing countries have cut the supply of millions of barrels per day, tightening the actual supply, and leading the demand for China, and demand has begun to pick up.

These trends make several oil products more expensive than the benchmark futures they refer to, and a few weeks ago, they still have a deep discount. In addition to the Gulf of America (Saudi Arabia's crude oil flows to Mexico), most of the real grade crude oil prices have risen for days or weeks. The most powerful ones are those that are most directly exposed to China's demand. At present, China's demand has returned to nearly a year ago.

Oil prices soared and oil markets tightened faster.

Russia's ESPO crude oil (mainly from the Far East to Asian buyers) this week has a premium of $3.50 a barrel over the benchmark oil price of Dubai. And last month, the oil shipped in June was 4.80 dollars more than the benchmark price in Dubai.

According to traders who do not want to be named, the Basra light oil and medium oil shipped in June were sold to a Chinese buyer at a price higher than the official price of 4.50-4.80 dollars per barrel. The premium for crude oil in May was $2.50 and $3.50 per barrel. Traders said that in Angola (China is a major customer), the premium has increased by about $1 in the past week. Beihai crude oil has also risen sharply.

This strength highlights how fast the oil market is tightening. While demand is picking up, OPEC and its allies are cutting global daily production by nearly 10 million barrels, and North American exploration companies are also rapidly drilling. "In short, OPEC+ LED production cuts and global shutdowns are playing a role," adds Michael Tran, an analyst at Canada capital market, in a research paper.

He said that although the bank had expected the oil market to be in short supply by the end of June or early July, "preliminary indicators showed that the excess clearance rate was 4-5 weeks ahead of our predicted time line, and the price was also.

Polyester raw materials follow the crude oil fluctuations, and the 2 million 200 thousand ton / year PTA device will stimulate the market by unexpected parking, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease.

The fluctuation of crude oil price is still the main melody followed by polyester raw materials. The global oil market has accelerated the recovery of the balance, which has helped to form more support for the market. Recently, PTA has seen the cost push up market and the cost side is good. The PTA has been rising strongly. The 19 day evening, Hon Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA device temporary parking to boost the market, PTA period is now the market sentiment again, leading the price increase in chemical industry. As of the morning of May 20th, WTI crude oil rose 67.6% in May and PTA futures rose 9.4%.

　　 Since May, the 700 thousand ton PTA facility in Ningbo has been stopped due to an accident. The restart time has not yet been determined. The Hon Bang 600 thousand ton PTA plant has been stopped for some reason. The 400 thousand ton PTA plant of Shanghai petrochemical company has also formally implemented the planned overhaul within a month. The current PTA operating rate is still on the high side, but Hainan Yisheng 2 million tons plant and Xinjiang Zhongtai 1 million 200 thousand ton installations all have the June maintenance plan. As can be seen from the table, there are several maintenance plans in June, but at present, the processing fee is at a high level of 700-800 yuan. According to the existing equipment maintenance schedule, it is estimated that the supply and demand gap of PTA will be around 25-30 tons in May if all of the above devices can be landed. If we add Tung Kun Jiaxing petrochemical plant in June, we expect that the PTA supply and demand gap will go to 30 thousand tons, but if Jiaxing Petrochemical is overhauled in July, then the supply and demand gap in June will only accumulate 40 thousand tons. From this we can see that the supply and demand library has been alleviated, and whether the PTA can be used to go to the warehouse in the late stage, the landing of the device maintenance is very important.

　　 At the same time, the temporary shutdown of Hon Bang Petrochemical's 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant has boosted the market. It is understood that the total capacity of Hon Bang Petrochemical is 2 million 900 thousand tons / year. In the early stage, 700 thousand tons of small capacity have been stopped, and 2 million 200 thousand tons / year large installations have been stopped at the beginning, and the initial parking is expected to be 20 days. PTA the domestic effective capacity base is 52 million 390 thousand tons, which accounts for 5.54% of the capacity. According to the current load forecast of PTA and polyester, after the shutdown of the device, the continuous storage speed of PTA in the early stage basically ended, and the supply and demand were generally in a state of equilibrium. It is estimated that the overall storage volume in May will be reduced to around 200 thousand tons. Compared with the beginning of the month, the expected decline in storage data will be roughly 100 thousand tons. PTA supply pressure is expected to decrease in the late stage.

Polyester filament upstream and downstream usher in strong support: textile orders increase, boot up better than the end of April

As far as polyester is concerned, the rise of crude oil and PTA also stimulated the production and sale of polyester filament. And from the downstream weaving, entering the second quarter, due to the cancellation and delay of the previous orders, resulting in a continuous loss of market orders, the manufacturer's grey storage inventory once triggered a warning line, especially the peripheral manufacturers, because of its high production capacity and higher inventory pressure, resulting in a significant weakening of the production enthusiasm of most weaving factories, and a minimum of 5 days' leave during the May 1 period. For 7-10 days.

With the end of the holiday, the major manufacturers resumed production. However, unlike the investigation before the holiday, many factories returned to work after the May 1 holiday, and some even operated at full capacity.

It is reported that at present, the water injection rate in Shengze and Changxin has increased to 7-8 in the vicinity, Shaw in 5, and warp knitting rate is around 7, compared with the end of April, the market operating rate has generally increased by about 1.

　　 In addition, the recent summer clothing material is better than before. Some manufacturers have indicated that they have taken hundreds of thousands of orders after the holiday. Earlier, because of the lack of orders for domestic and foreign trade, the inventory of simulated silk fabrics manufacturers rose sharply. With the gradual warming of the domestic market, the sales of simulated silk in the market were stimulated. Some of the specifications and products even brought about a wave of market because of the tight supply of goods. Among them, the products sold last year were SPH, and the manufacturers said the downstream demand was better, and the market heat was obviously good. In other products, prices have steadily increased.

　　 However, it should be noted that at present, the foreign trade environment of textile industry is still weak. The recovery of orders for textile and apparel products in Europe and the United States during the resumption of European and American markets is a good demand for polyester products, supporting the market price and profits of polyester products. However, in the late May, China's textile industry's export orders for Europe and the United States have not improved substantially, and the recovery of the entire demand may take 1-2 months of transition.

Therefore, as a whole, with the resumption of market in Europe and the United States, the market is expected to enhance the global economic recovery, the major oil producing countries have maintained a substantial reduction in production, and the demand for oil products in Europe and the United States has picked up the pressure of excess oil. The crude oil futures in May have gained the upper hand. Short term crude oil futures may continue to rebound and directly boost the domestic chemical fiber market. The market price of polyester industry is rising under the support of short-term cost, but the degree of demand recovery in the medium term terminal textile market will determine the height of the industrial chain market rebound.