How Big Is The Downward Trend Of Zheng Cotton Market?

In May 22nd, after a long period of persistence, Zheng cotton had a large pullback. The price of the CF2009 contract has returned to 11600 yuan / ton. What are the views and opinions of the market participants? Can this downward fall before the low?

Judging from the trend of the disk, Zheng cotton has not been able to stand high in the callback, indicating that there is still a pressing force at the top. Domestic cotton industry and Commerce inventory data is too large, and the spot market supply exceeds demand situation is difficult to reverse in a short time. A cotton professional research pointed out that affected by the epidemic, consumer market recovery needs a long process, China's foreign trade is still under great pressure. For the speculation of the outside world, at least now the disk has not yet been clearly reflected. According to his own investigation and understanding in Xinjiang, the growth of cotton seedlings in Northern Xinjiang and Kuche, Sha Ya and Xinhe County is better than that in the same period last year. Judging from the current situation, it is too early to judge cotton production in Xinjiang. Only by 7 and August will the actual output of Xinjiang cotton come to the surface. Therefore, the cotton price trend is short-term or concussion finishing, though it is bullish but highly limited in the long term. The export of foreign trade data in June is still full of uncertainties. If the situation improves, prices will also respond ahead of schedule.

There are also people in the industry who say that the downstream textile enterprises usually purchase spot goods at the spot price in order to get the most cost-effective cotton resources. The lower the price, the better the spot price. If the price of zhengmian is strong, the purchasing of the spot price will be limited, and vice versa. Of course, the short-term market decline, the emergence of spot price plate, to a certain extent, to curb prices continue downward, the two are mutually restrictive role. Therefore, the recent price should maintain an interval shock, and the possibility of falling to the front low is very small unless there is an unpredictable systemic risk.

At present, the market is still controversial about the direction and the fluctuation of cotton prices. Different positions lead to different views. Because both sides have more objective reasons, it is difficult to judge which is right or wrong.