Volume And Price Rise: The Two Quarter Of The Property Market Entered A Structural Rebound

"The two quarter average monthly sales can reach 10 billion." In May 28th, a vice president of the top 40 Housing enterprises told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that the initial forecast for the two quarter could make up the sales losses brought about by the epidemic in the first quarter.

Recently, many housing enterprises in East China reflect that sales of real estate are getting warmer and warmer.

The statistics show that in April 2020, the top 100 housing enterprises achieved a total sales volume of 900 billion 230 million yuan per month, up 17.2% from March, which is basically the same as last April. From the cumulative performance, the total sales performance of top 100 housing enterprises in 2020 1-4 decreased by 14.5% compared with the same period in April, but sales recovery in April was slightly better than expected. The decline has narrowed since March.

Zhang Hongwei, chief analyst of the same policy research institute, believes that the so-called market recovery is not bad, but a structural rebound, and the market is "hot spot".

Recently, real estate sales are getting warmer, and the performance of the second tier cities is most obvious. Vision China

Turnover is showing a structural increase.

Looking back at the real estate market in the past several stages of adjustment, the whole country will go out of a structural warming curve.

This time, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen were the first to launch the luxury market, especially in Shanghai, just after the demand was released, and the luxury houses were waiting for frequent queuing. However, the purchasing power has not yet been released, including the first time to improve the demand. The Shanghai suburbs also have the pressure to go out. For example, Chengdu, the city is more typical. In 1-5, turnover is better than last year, but the structure is still better. The sex characteristics are very obvious. Because of the second-hand upside down, Chengdu has sold some popular properties for two hundred or three hundred times at a time, and the whole market has shown "hot spot". If the performance of dot fever is eliminated, other properties will not sell well. This structural feature is very obvious.

From the head office of the sales bulletin that has been released, the sales of Hengda in April increased year by year. In April this year, Hengda realized the contract sales amount of about 65 billion 210 million yuan, an increase of about 11.6% compared to the same period last year, and the sales area of the contract was about 7 million 130 thousand square meters, an increase of about 28.5% over the same period last year. In the first 4 months of this year, Hengda achieved a total sales volume of about 212 billion 570 million yuan, an increase of about 19.4% compared with the same period last year, and the sales area of the contract was about 23 million 711 thousand square meters, up 43% from the same period last year. Perhaps Hengda adjusted its sales strategy from 25% off of the epidemic period to 19% off and 15% off during the May 1 period.

If we look at the previous April sales volume, although the impact of the epidemic is relatively long, the sales volume of several head enterprises is not too large. Biguiyuan realized the sales volume of about 149 billion 880 million yuan, a decrease of 10.37% compared to the same period last year. Vanke achieved a total sales area of 11 million 886 thousand square meters in the first 4 months of this year, and the contract sales amount was 185 billion 830 million yuan, a decrease of about 11% compared to the same period last year.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think-tank center of the Yi Ju Research Institute, points out that this is due to the improvement of the external environment. Local governments, especially the housing management departments, have also made clear the relaxation of the supervision policy of pre-sale funds. Therefore, selling housing from real estate enterprises to subsequent funds withdrawal is a positive role, which helps Housing enterprises return funds and commercial banks are more cooperative.

Money back to accelerate the increase in housing prices to take power

The recovery of the housing market began to accelerate after the stable situation, and most of the sales in April improved significantly. Under such circumstances, the market is expected to rise in a certain amplitude in 5-6 months.

However, housing prices have been rising in the wake of the property market rebound. According to Zhang Yan, vice president of Yuzhou group, since May, the average price of the more than 100 items sold by the group has been increased by three times. Yu Zhou in this wave of sales rebound, inventory turnover rate ranks the top 20 in the industry, which is related to the layout of the project. Yu Zhou opened the land holding mode in 2019, and successively invested in Qingdao, Kaifeng, Foshan, Beijing, Shanghai and other places. In May 2019, Yu Chau paid a premium of 134% in Chengdu, setting a new record for Chengdu's floor price.

The front-end transaction of the property market is getting warmer and the capital turnover is accelerating. This has also stimulated the enthusiasm of Housing enterprises to take further steps, such as Xiangsheng real estate, Jinhui, Hongyang and so on. They are seeking to expand their scale by actively taking the initiative. There are also central enterprises, such as Zhonghai, Jinmao, Huarun, and Greentown. In this regard, Zhang Hongwei also pointed out that from a structural point of view, in fact, the market recovery is not a comprehensive recovery. Like the three or four line city recovery, there is still a lack of motivation, and the overall market demand is insufficient.

Therefore, in the short term, for some housing enterprises, sales pressure is still relatively large. Take Hongyang as an example. In January of this year, Hongyang took 682 million yuan in a commercial area in Anqing, Anhui. In March, Hongyang took two yuan homestead in Chongqing with 1 billion 437 million yuan, and won 1 billion 550 million yuan in Ningbo in April. Before April, the housing company that failed to accomplish 100 billion goals in 2019 cost nearly 4 billion of the cost. Correspondingly, the company sold only 5 billion 845 million yuan in April this year, down 61% from a year ago. At the same time, according to the company's 2019 annual report, the financing cost is about 634 million yuan, an increase of 27% over the same period last year.

Close to Zhang Hongwei's view, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, also believes that the 1-4 month sales scale still needs to be recovered in the second and third quarters.

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