The First Half Of The Fundamentals Plus Polyester Filament Prices Fell By More Than 20%

In the first half of 2020, the market of polyester filament in China showed a downward trend, and polyester POY fell the most. The decline was 22.42% in the half year, followed by the decrease of 20.99% in polyester FDY and 19.03% in polyester DTY.

　　 The average price of polyester filament Market in 1-6 months 2020 is up and down.

The first stage: from January to early February, some factories entered the traditional Spring Festival overhaul during the Spring Festival traditional holiday. At the same time, due to the spread of health emergencies, the downstream production enterprises stopped working and logistics stagnated, and the demand side entered the "vacuum period". Especially from mid February, the price began to flow, and the polyester POY (150D/48F) fell to April 2nd, the market average price was 4844. Yuan / ton hit a minimum price of nearly 10 years, or 63.42%.

The second stage: Qingming holiday, downstream of the polyester filament, ushering in a wave of historical bottom, the factory went to the warehouse a lot, and the inventory pressure eased and the production enthusiasm was improved. But unfortunately, from mid April to the end of April, because of the sharp drop in crude oil prices and to a negative value, the downstream panic mentality completely obscured speculative purchases, the cost of polyester filament fell, inventory pressure, and prices fell again.

The third stage: the beginning of the end of April, the price of polyester filament is getting warmer. The main reason is that the demand of domestic polyester protective clothing is heating up, which leads to a wave of downstream purchasing. At the same time, the price of crude oil market is showing a trend of shock and rising when supply exceeds the expected price, and the cost side has also formed a certain support. However, forced by the domestic traditional off-season overlay exports, the downstream weaving enterprises tend to become more rational about cash flow tension, and the demand is sluggish, and there is a sustained decline in mid June.

　　 In the first half of 2020, the production of new pet installations in China was 10000 tons.

From the perspective of productivity, under the background of continuous low market, the growth rate of polyester and polyester filament in the first half of 2020 has been significantly improved. The total domestic production capacity of polyester is 2 million 930 thousand tons, of which 1 million 200 thousand tons of polyester filament are newly put into operation, accounting for 41% of the total polyester production. In contrast, in 2019, the total output of domestic polyester increased by 1 million 370 thousand tons, of which 530 thousand tons of polyester filament were newly put into operation, accounting for 38.7% of the total volume of polyester newly put into operation. From the long-term strategic perspective of the industry, domestic polyester leading enterprises are still "going against the trend" and have implemented the previous production plan. First, speed up the industrial layout of the refinery and polyester industry, strengthen their capital and risk control capabilities, expand their industrial capacity through the strength of their own enterprises, further increase the occupation rate of the industry, and squeeze the living space of the small and medium-sized enterprises; secondly, most of the products put into operation are bad. Alienated unconventional products enrich their production lines.

In the first half of 2020, the trend of polyester load started down first and then gradually recovered to normal level after a slight concussion. Through the traditional holiday of Spring Festival and the spread of health emergency safety incidents, factories were forced to reduce production under the pressure of high storage pressure, and the historical load of the load once dropped to 6 was once low. Then, along with the resumption of downstream weaving enterprises and the partial restoration of logistics, the demand port has been released, which further promotes the start-up load of polyester filament. Moreover, under the background of lower inventory and higher production in Qingming downstream, the enthusiasm of factory production has been continuously improved, and the total construction has reached a high level of more than 86%.

The market price of raw materials PTA first fell and then rose. As of June 30th, the market average price was 3617 yuan / ton, down 27.35% from the beginning of the year, down 43.18% from the same period last year. In the first stage, the price of crude oil showed a cliff like fall in the case of public safety and health. Under this influence, PTA continued to descend and fell to 3068 yuan / ton in April 22nd. Especially in February, transportation constraints and inadequate demand began to make PTA inventories accumulate. The total inventory reached nearly 1 million tons in that month. Entering the second stage, although the supply and demand pressure has obviously continued to accumulate, the stock of society has been maintained at more than 3 million 700 thousand tons since April. However, with the increase of crude oil, the cost side has been supporting well, and the whole industry has gone up narrowly.

The downstream textile and weaving market was affected by the Spring Festival holidays. The opening rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms dropped to 0.6% near the beginning of February. With the gradual recovery of enterprises and the increase to 70% in mid March, the demand recovery was slow, and the lack of order tracking resulted in a lot of weaving factories beginning to reduce the burden and reduce production to 40%. Entering the May, the order situation is only partially improved, and the overall trend of the market is still uncertain. In June, the atmosphere gradually deepened in the off-season. It was even more difficult when the special year was out of season. The demand was sluggish and the turnover was slack, to 60%. At present, the conventional products are unsalable, the market has no bright spots to support, and the products are difficult to carry goods, which leads the weaving factories to continue to enter the tired storage cycle. Judging from the current market situation, fierce competition in domestic trade, foreign trade recovery difficulties, weaving manufacturers will continue to inventory, if there is no substantial change in the market outlook, manufacturers start rate or further decline. At present, there are about 43 days in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, about 41 days in the same period last year, compared with 25 days in the same period in 2018.

The pressure of textile exports is still very high. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, in May 2020, the export volume of textiles and clothing was 29 billion 554 million US dollars, an increase of 38.36%, with the export volume of garments (including garments and accessories) at 8 billion 905 million 700 thousand US dollars, down 26.93% from the same ratio. In 2020 1-5, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 97 billion 965 million US dollars, down 0.80% from the same period last year, of which the total export volume of clothing was 38 billion 213 million 100 thousand US dollars, down 22.80% from the same period last year.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that the current crude oil is in a cycle of reduction in production, forming a certain support. But for PTA, inventory is still at a high level, which is not enough to reverse the industry pattern of excessive supply and demand of PTA in the medium and long term. The current situation of high inventory is difficult to resolve, and the weakness of PTA market in the future is more likely. At the same time, in the short term, the traditional off-season characteristics of textile terminals are more and more obvious. Domestic demand is low, and export is also difficult to break through. The new equipment will be put into production again. The price of polyester filament will be lower in the second half of the year.