In June 2020, CPI Will Slightly Decrease And PPI Will Turn From Decline To Increase

In June 2020, CPI will slightly decrease and PPI will turn from decline to increase

- Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of National Bureau of statistics, interprets CPI and PPI data in June 2020

The National Bureau of statistics released today the national CPI (consumer price index) and PPI (Industrial producer price index) data for June 2020. In this regard, Dong Lijuan, Senior Statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of statistics, made an interpretation.

1. CPI continued to decline on a month on month basis, with a slight increase in year-on-year growth

In June, the resumption of work and production, and the resumption of market and business continued to advance. All regions and departments conscientiously implemented the central government's series of policies and measures to ensure supply and price stability, and the market operation was generally stable. On a month on month basis, CPI fell by 0.1%. Among them, food prices rose by 0.2%, affecting CPI by about 0.04%. Due to the tight supply of fresh pork in China, the demand for fresh pork increased by 3.6% due to the shortage of fresh pork in the market and reduced the demand for fresh pork in some areas The price of fresh fruits dropped by 7.6% and the decline rate was 6.8% higher than that of the previous month. The supply of eggs was sufficient, and the price dropped by 4.1%. Non food prices fell by 0.1% from flat in the previous month, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.10%. Among non food items, the epidemic continued to affect travel, with air tickets and travel prices falling by 6.1% and 1.8% respectively; summer clothing began to be on sale, and clothing prices increased from 0.2% last month to a decrease of 0.2%.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI rose by 2.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the food price rose by 11.1%, and the increase increased by 0.5%, which affected the CPI rise by about 2.24%. Among the food products, the prices of pork, beef and mutton increased by 81.6%, 18.5% and 10.9% respectively, with little change compared with the previous month; the prices of aquatic products increased by 4.8%, with an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the prices of fresh vegetables increased by 4.2%, with a decrease of 8.5% last month; the prices of fresh fruits and eggs decreased by 29.0% and 15.8%, respectively, by 9.7% and 1.3% respectively. Non food prices rose by 0.3%, down 0.1% from the previous month, affecting the CPI rise of about 0.24%. Among non food items, the prices of education, culture, entertainment and health care increased by 1.9%, transportation and communication prices decreased by 4.6%, of which gasoline and diesel prices decreased by 19.4% and 21.2% respectively.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. It is estimated that among the 2.5% year-on-year increase in June, the tail effect of last year's price change was about 3.3%, and the impact of new price rise was about - 0.8%. In the first half of the year, CPI rose by 3.8% over the same period last year.

2. The month on month ratio of PPI was down to up, and the decline rate was narrowed on a year-on-year basis

In June, international commodity prices recovered, domestic manufacturing industry recovered steadily, and market demand continued to improve. On a month on month basis, PPI rose by 0.4% from 0.4% in the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production has changed from 0.5% to 0.5%, and the price of means of living has changed from 0.3% to 0.1%. According to the survey of 40 industrial sectors, there were 22 industrial sectors with price rising, 12 more than the previous month, 12 declining, 8 decreasing, and 6 flat decreasing, 4 decreasing. Affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil prices, the prices of products in oil related industries stopped falling and turned to rise. Among them, the prices of oil and natural gas exploitation industry increased by 38.2%, the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 1.7%, and the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry increased by 0.4%. The price of ferrous metal smelting and calendering increased by 1.9% from flat. The price of nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry rose by 1.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The total impact of the above five industries on PPI rose by about 0.42%. In addition, the price of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 0.7% and the decline rate narrowed by 2.2%.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI decreased by 3.0%, 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 4.2%, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.9%; the price of means of living increased by 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. The price decline of major industries narrowed. Among them, the price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry decreased by 39.1% and decreased by 18.5 percentage points; the price of oil, coal and other fuel processing industry decreased by 21.6% and 2.8%; the price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry decreased by 7.9%, 1.3%; the price of ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry decreased by 5.1% and 2.9% respectively; and the price of nonferrous metal smelting and calendering industry decreased by 5.1% The price of processing industry decreased by 2.2% and narrowed by 2.2%. In addition, the price of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 9.3%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points.

It is estimated that in the 3.0% year-on-year decrease in June, the tail raising effect of last year's price change was about - 0.2 percentage points, and the impact of new price increase was about - 2.8 percentage points. PPI was 9.1% lower than that in the first half of last year.