Hot Cities Are Facing The Most Difficult Rental Season: Rents Fall, Vacancy Period Nearly 50 Days, Where Are The Tenants?

From the perspective of market performance, the sharp reduction in rental demand has led to the extension of the vacancy period of many housing sources, and the transaction cycle of nearly two months has been normal. Although the market seems to be in the process of rapid adjustment after the outbreak, it has also been in the process of rapid expansion.

When the rent was renewed for another year, Xiao Liu, who lives in Shaoyaoju, Chaoyang District, Beijing, was surprised to find that when she renewed her lease contract at the end of June, the landlord and the intermediary did not ask for a price increase. For the past three years, Xiao Liu has been renting a one bedroom apartment in the community, with the rent "rising every year.".

Agent told Xiao Liu, this is because the market is not good recently. In the same district, there had been an increase in rent by homeowners, which led to the loss of original tenants. After nearly two months of vacancy, homeowners have to lower their prices and rent even lower than before.

According to a set of data released by the shell Research Institute, the average rent in Beijing in June this year was 84.4 yuan per square meter per month, down 5.0% from the same period last year.

Beijing is not the worst city. According to the data released by the above-mentioned institutions, the leasing transaction volume of 18 key cities generally declined in June this year, and the average rent level dropped by 10.9% year-on-year. Recently, I love the monitoring made by the Research Institute of my family, 58 cities, anjuke platform and other institutions, and similar conclusions have been drawn.

From the perspective of market performance, the sharp reduction in rental demand has led to the extension of the vacancy period of many housing sources, and the transaction cycle of nearly two months has been normal. Although the market seems to be in the process of rapid adjustment after the outbreak, it has also been in the process of rapid expansion.

In the first half of this year, the total number of leasing transactions in 12 hot cities decreased by nearly 30% compared with the same period of last year. People's vision

Market "cold winter"

In recent years, the supply of rental housing in hot cities has remained stable on the whole, and the demand for rental housing has also risen steadily. Among them, the return of migrant workers after the Spring Festival and the employment of summer college graduates are the stage of centralized release of rental demand.

Due to the impact of the epidemic, the first traditional rental season of this year did not appear as scheduled in February. Since then, although the epidemic situation has been controlled and the resumption of work and production has started in an orderly manner, the rental demand has not returned to the level of previous years.

In this case, the extension of vacancy period and the decline of trading volume have become the most direct market performance.

In the first half of this year, the total number of leasing transactions in 12 hot cities decreased by nearly 30% compared with the same period of last year, according to the data of my home Research Institute. Among them, Beijing dropped by about 23%, while Wuhan and Hangzhou fell by more than 60%. There are different degrees of rent decline in cities.

A lot of, obviously, in the vacancy phase. Since then, the shellfish rental cycle has been extended by more than 50 days from last month to June, but this year's housing cycle is still more than 60 days.

As a matter of fact, since this year, many hot cities have issued new policies on talents, and have given subsidies for settling down places and renting houses. However, compared with the gap brought by the impact of the epidemic, the gap is still obvious.

Although the "normal" rise in employment recruitment rate of enterprises in Zhuge is not affected by the data of large enterprises, the re employment rate of enterprises is also on the rise.

I love my family in a quarterly report pointed out another trend - the epidemic will promote "part of the demand for rental housing to the demand for home ownership".

Recently, a number of brokerage agencies and owners in Beijing lamented "customer loss" to the 21st century economic report. Since this year, the situation of non renewal of rent due to "job change" and "not returning to Beijing" has been significantly higher than in previous years.

As the market has cooled, some institutions have begun to operate in reverse. In recent months, some large-scale institutions, such as Ziyuan, eggshell and Xiangyu, have negotiated with some owners, trying to reduce the entrusted price of housing resources, so as to reduce the cost. Among them, the entrusted rent of individual housing resources decreased by nearly 30%. As many houses are still in the Commission period, this has caused a large number of contract disputes. The pace of expansion of these institutions slowed down significantly in some areas.

Shell Research Institute pointed out that in the first half of 2020, 93 new stores of top 10 centralized long-term rental apartment brands were opened, with a new opening rate of 8.2%, lower than the 71.8% level of last year. The number of well-known stores has been closed down, while the number of well-known stores has been shut down. Some tail companies even appear capital chain fracture, bankruptcy and so on.

At the same time, the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to enter the rental market is also greatly reduced. According to statistics, by the end of 2019, 44 large-scale developers have carried out long-term apartment business, and no developers have entered the field of long-term apartments in the first half of this year.

Return to normal?

The second traditional rental season, driven by college graduates, usually occurs from June to August each year. But judging from the market performance, the start was not smooth.

In fact, this part of the demand has been cooling down. According to the statistics of my family research institute, in the first half of this year, the rental demand of 20-25 years old in 12 hot cities accounted for 17.7%, a significant decline. This is due to the epidemic situation, the employment time of most college and secondary school graduates has been delayed, and the rental demand has also shrunk.

The agency believes that July is the graduation season, and the rental market is expected to improve compared with June. However, in view of the continuous tightening of new market demand in most cities and the recovery of the economy, it is difficult for the rental market to rise sharply due to the uncertain factors existing in the epidemic situation in China.

On the price side, due to the continuous tightening of new demand and the aggravation of the contradiction between supply and demand, the possibility of rent rise in various cities is reduced, and the local government strictly controls the price, so the rent fluctuation will not be very large.

The shellfish research institute also pointed out that depending on the impact of the epidemic, rental markets in different cities will maintain a "low" or "moderate" trend in the second half of the year. Although the market supply and demand relationship will tend to ease, but tenants still have more initiative and bargaining space, so the price will not rise significantly.

Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jinghui think tank, thinks that even if the epidemic situation is not taken into account, the market will adjust spontaneously.

He told the 21st century economic report that from 2017 to 2018, long-term apartment operators entered a period of rapid expansion, and some institutions obtained housing at a level significantly higher than the market price. Affected by this, the rent level of hot cities once rose significantly.

However, in the consumer side, renters' tolerance to price is relatively limited, and high price will produce crowding out effect on demand. Therefore, after the previous irrational development, the leasing market will bid farewell to high growth and the price will return to stability in the next one to two years. In this process, public rental housing, collective land rental housing and other rental categories launched in hot cities will also play a role in stabilizing the market rent level.

According to historical data, rents in hot cities have been rising for many years, with significant increases in some years. But since the second half of last year, prices have dropped significantly.

Based on the monthly rent of 8.51 yuan per square meter in Beijing in March and a half in 2020, the average rent of the housing in Beijing will rise by 1.84 yuan per square meter in April, 2012. During this period, Beijing experienced two periods of rapid rent growth of more than 10%, namely, 2013 and 2016-2018. However, since August 2019, Beijing's rent level has been negative year-on-year.

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