The Fiscal Stimulus Bill Continued, And The Commodity Market Performed Strongly

Yesterday, Zheng cotton in the United States cotton led, high open high, futures price rise, so that the overall cotton spot trading is significantly weaker than the previous trading day, point price transactions sporadic. This year, the epidemic situation is fierce, the impact of textile enterprises is greater, loss making enterprises and profit reduction enterprises increased significantly. Mainly due to the sluggish domestic and international market demand, the sharp decrease of orders and the reduction of the company's capacity utilization rate, resulting in increased costs and reduced gross profit, resulting in a sharp decline in net profit in the first half of the year. Almost none of the clothing enterprises in the terminal link escaped the severe attack of the epidemic. Some well-known global chain clothing enterprises have closed down or even closed down. Rome wasn't built in a day, and the external environment faced by downstream enterprises is still not optimistic.

[market overview]

Price structure and arbitrage analysis

On July 21, the current price difference between Zhengzhou cotton 2009 contract and cci3128b index was - 82 / ton, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day.

By the end of July 21, the price difference of zhengmian 2009-2101 contract was - 575 yuan / ton, which was 15 yuan / ton higher than the previous trading day. There is no obvious arbitrage opportunity in the near future.

On July 21, the price difference between CCI index and FC index RMB index was - 38 yuan / ton, which was 172 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day; the face price difference of zce2009-ice2012 contract was 2318 yuan / ton, which was 32 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day

Warehouse receipt and effective forecast

As of July 21, the number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 19460 (about 837000 tons), 90 (3870 tons) less than the previous day. The effective forecast quantity was 1531 (about 66000 tons), 129 (5547 tons) less than the previous day. The total amount of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 903000 tons.

[market analysis]

At present, the arrival price of emot m in the United States is 72.6 cents / pound, that of India's s s-61-1 / 8 is 64.8 cents / pound, and that of Brazil's M is 68.5 cents / pound. The arrival price of foreign cotton has collectively increased by 1 cent / pound compared with the previous trading day. After a hard discussion, the EU government agreed to set up an 8.7 billion euro anti epidemic fund. At the same time, market participants are also paying attention to the progress of the new round of fiscal stimulus plan in the United States. The current US coronavirus assistance, relief and economic security act, which is more than $2 trillion, is due to expire at the end of this month, but the US Treasury secretary says a trillion dollar stimulus plan is in the works. Round after round of fiscal stimulus bill, the capital market has been boosted by the continuous release of water to the market. The S & P 500 index rose for the third consecutive trading day, and the CRB commodity index showed a strong performance, jumping short and opening high. Ice cotton futures contract closed at 62.93 cents / pound on the high open small positive line, with the futures price up 0.02 cents / pound compared with the previous trading day, and the position increased by 689 lots to 121000 lots. From the technical point of view, MACD green column shrinkage. Diff and DEA fit dead cross, but still above the zero axis, KDJ index shows signs of turning upward, short-term attention to the support of the medium rail line.

Yesterday, Zheng cotton in the United States cotton led, high open high, futures price rise, so that the overall cotton spot trading is significantly weaker than the previous trading day, point price transactions sporadic. This year, the epidemic situation is fierce, the impact of textile enterprises is greater, loss making enterprises and profit reduction enterprises increased significantly. Mainly due to the sluggish domestic and international market demand, the sharp decrease of orders and the reduction of the company's capacity utilization rate, resulting in increased costs and reduced gross profit, resulting in a sharp decline in net profit in the first half of the year. Almost none of the clothing enterprises in the terminal link escaped the severe attack of the epidemic. Some well-known global chain clothing enterprises have closed down or even closed down. Rome wasn't built in a day, and the external environment faced by downstream enterprises is still not optimistic.

Driven by American cotton, zhengmian 09 contract opened high in the morning and closed 1 / 2 of the small positive line of the upper shadow line in the morning, and closed at 12080 yuan / ton in the afternoon, with the futures price up 100 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day. The position decreased by 1564 hands to 296000, and the main contract funds continued to flow out, and some positions were transferred to 01 contract. From the technical point of view, MACD green column shrinkage, diff and DEA have signs of fitting golden fork, KDJ index turning head upward, technical indicators tend to be stronger.

[trading proposal]

The short-term operation range of zhengmian 09 contract is 11700-12300. It is suggested that the long-term bottom reading funds entering the market in the early stage should continue to hold 10-15% of the position, and short-term traders should wait and see for a while (for reference only)