Just A Week Market Turnover! Today'S Chemical Fiber Polyester Market, Is A "Drum Pass Flower" Game

In recent years, no matter under the impact of overseas epidemic situation or under the pressure of Sino US trade, many people in the industry feel very confused about the development prospect of the whole industry. In the view of many people, the textile enterprises in China are working for workers recently, so there appears a tragic voice of "survive and endure".

From the perspective of the development of the whole textile industry, the upstream raw material enterprises are basically dominated by private and state-owned enterprises in the industrial chain, while the interrupted raw material enterprises are giants in industries such as Hengli, Hengyi, Tongkun, Rongsheng, etc. The continuous price rise of upstream raw material enterprises leads to the continuous rise of production costs of polyester enterprises. Polyester enterprises have been prepared for price increase, but downstream enterprises do not buy, resulting in an embarrassing situation of the whole industry.

In recent months, crude oil has been slowly rising trend to drive the whole polyester raw material support. Boosted by the favorable crude oil price, the market of polyester raw materials is greatly promoted, and the PTA and glycol markets are warming up, thus promoting the price of polyester filament.

In August, the polyester market, which has been in the doldrums, finally has a better performance. In addition to maintaining a small rise in prices, production and sales are the best proof. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers have increased from less than 40% in the early stage to 60-80% in the early stage, and even more than 100% of the market appeared in the stage of the sharp rise in oil prices, and the inventory pressure of polyester manufacturers shifted to downstream manufacturers again. According to an industry source, some large factories have said that they may reduce the preferential power or even increase the price in the later stage, which to a certain extent also drives the mentality of bargain hunting in the downstream market.

At the same time, the textile market in the first half of the order shortage, finally in late July came good news. According to the data, the recent transaction atmosphere in Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets has improved compared with the previous period, and most transactions are focused on autumn and winter fabrics. Both domestic and foreign trade markets have certain performance, especially the domestic market. Among them, the elastic performance is better, and other conventional autumn and winter fabric orders are better than in the early stage, such as Shumei silk and gall cloth used for lining, warp knitted suede and plain cloth for sand release. In addition, medium and thick clothing fabrics also have certain performance, especially after special finishing process, which is used to make down jacket, cotton clothing and other fabrics, and the market proofing and sample performance are good.

Since the stock of raw materials is slow down in the early stage of weaving, most of the manufacturers who are not willing to purchase raw materials at the end of the weaving season are not willing to purchase, and most of them are not willing to purchase the raw materials at the end of the weaving season, and most of them are not willing to purchase the raw materials at the end of the weaving season This also boosted the confidence of market participants. So it led to this wave of market. This wave of procurement really let the original high inventory polyester manufacturers breathe a sigh of relief!

Just a week market turnover! Start up rate 100% to 50%, the machine stops waiting for work to do! Textile market in the off season again!

However, a serious shortage of production orders is not expected to continue for another week.

1. Lack of orders, printing back to the off season

Although the traditional printing season of September and October has not come, but from the recent printing market performance, it is likely that this wave of market has been overdrawn in advance, and it is extravagant to talk about the peak season in the future. A big factor in this situation is the continued push back sales of clothing products.

"Recently, we had an order of 2000 meters in a printing factory. Last week, grey cloth was put into the warehouse. At that time, we waited in line for three days for production. Recently, we just printed it. Originally, I was going to finalize the design and then deliver the goods today, so I called the salesman and asked him to line up to prepare for the finalization. Who knows that the factory is not busy now. All four setting machines are waiting for customers to take fabric to shape. There is no need to queue up. Ten printing machines are not fully opened, only 5-6 are on. " A trader said.

As we all know, printed fabrics are mainly used in spring and summer clothing, and the main role of winter clothing is still to keep warm. Although the concept of fashion and fashion has begun to wake up in recent years, it is difficult to "blossom" like spring and summer clothing in a short time. In the peak season of September and October, we mainly produce some autumn and winter clothes. Winter clothes can't use much printing elements. What about autumn clothes?

Autumn clothing may drive the printing market into the peak season in the past, but it is obviously difficult to do so this year. This spring, the whole sales season was missed because of the epidemic, and a large number of clothing enterprises' warehouses were full of spring clothing inventory. Some of them will change part of the spring clothing into autumn clothing sales, or simply resell the original, which will lead to the fall clothing demand will be significantly reduced.

What's more, some clothing giants have taken the lead to make it clear that they will cancel or reduce autumn clothing orders. American sports giant Nike said it had canceled about 30% of factory orders before the autumn and end of the year shopping season; Ralph Lauren, the US fashion luxury group, said it had cancelled about two-thirds of autumn orders.

The future of the autumn order is so uncertain, naturally, the printing order in this area is seriously insufficient. But what's more alarming is that if we can't digest the spring clothing inventory in the first half of the year this autumn, it is likely that this part of the inventory will turn to the next spring. Missed this year's two peak seasons, and then missed next year's spring market, printing market days will be more bleak.

Obviously, the market is not only the poor days of printing plants, but also the state of dyeing plants is not optimistic.

2. The rate of start-up is down, and the cost of dyeing is clear

The production status of dyeing factory is the most intuitive feedback of textile market. Although the overall situation of printing and dyeing Market is not good this year, the operating rate half a month ago performed well in the off-season, but the duration of this state is very short.

"In July, the daily warehousing volume of the factory can reach 400000-500000 meters per day, and the startup rate can maintain at 60-70%. However, the market has not been able to work recently. Now the daily warehousing volume of the factory is only about 350000 meters, and the startup rate can only guarantee 50% A person in charge of the dyeing plant said.

7. August is the traditional textile off-season. I thought that this year's market was special, but dyeing factories were not weak in the off-season. However, the market was fleeting. While orders were decreasing, dyeing factories could only seek to reduce dyeing fees to attract orders. It is reported that many large factories have already started to inform. For some big customers and large order prices, they can directly communicate with the dyeing factory boss, and give appropriate preferential prices so as to keep customers' orders.

Due to the limited order quantity, continuous reduction of production capacity is not a long-term solution. However, dyeing factories can only compete for orders by reducing prices. However, the dyeing factory will not have the cost advantage of the weaving factory. If the price of chemical fiber raw materials in the upstream is reduced, the price of grey fabric can be greatly reduced. However, the price reduction range of dyestuff cost is quite limited. Secondly, the production cost of dyeing plant is scattered. The rent, water and electricity, gas, labor, fire protection, environmental protection and so on are very complicated. The dye alone is not enough to affect the dyeing cost. Dyeing factories may sacrifice a lot if they make a big concession voluntarily. Most of them are shouting at a loss in order to maintain normal production.

The first, of course, is the epidemic. According to the most optimistic estimate, the earliest time for the outbreak to be brought under control was in the fourth quarter of this year, which is only more than a month ago. Of course, judging from the current situation, the global confirmed cases are still growing rapidly, and there is no sign of being controlled for the time being.

However, no one can say clearly about the changes of the epidemic situation. In the future, the epidemic situation in some overseas countries and regions can be controlled first, and it is still unknown that some markets will be recovered first.

The other is the rapidly changing international relations. Since Trump came to power in 2016, the action of "making trouble" has not stopped. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, due to a series of "intelligent quenching" operations, the number of infected people in the United States is the highest in the world, and Trump's support rate has dropped sharply for this reason. In order to be re elected, he began to operate more crazily than before. Recently, the affair of tiktok, an international version of tremolo, has been making a lot of noise. After pompeio tasted the sweetness, he threatened to take more Chinese applications off the shelves. It is not known whether this storm will affect the textile foreign trade.