China'S Textile And Clothing Industry Is Still Irreplaceable

After experiencing the soaring yarn market recently began to "fever" and return to rationality. As of October 29, cy c32s pure cotton yarn closed at 21800 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton or 1% from the same period last week. At present, the market wait-and-see mood is on the rise, whether textile enterprises or textile mills or traders are basically cautious.

Since the policy of purchase and storage was officially announced on the 21st, Zheng cotton has not aroused much waves. In addition, the market feedback is very few, which indicates that the purchase and storage of 500000 tons of cotton is expected. On the one hand, 500000 tons is much lower than the expected 1 million tons of cotton ginning plants and cotton enterprises in Xinjiang. On the other hand, the requirements for the quality index of Xinjiang machine picked cotton in 2020 / 21 seem to be somewhat high, which does not meet the rotation standard. As of October 29, cc3128b cotton index closed at 14641 yuan / ton, basically maintaining last week's market. However, it should also be noted that there is a hard condition for the rotation, that is, if the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exceeds 800 yuan / ton for three consecutive working days, trading will be suspended. Due to the previous "strong domestic and weak external" cotton prices, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton reached a peak of 2481 yuan. Although the domestic cotton speculation gradually faded, as of the 29th, the domestic and foreign cotton prices were still as high as 1932 yuan / ton. In extreme cases, it is likely that the collection and storage from December 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 can't be started. At that time, it will be a big blow to the COSCO, the national cotton trading market and cotton enterprises.

It should be said that the early price rise was supported by the actual demand. It was caused by many factors, such as the warming of orders, the improvement of market mentality, and the shortage of textile enterprises. However, the increase in the later period was too large, especially for cotton. The cotton yarn rose by about 4000 yuan / ton in a few days. Traders also covered their plates and did not sell. The market was actually hyped by funds. Due to the small inventory of textile enterprises (up to 9.7 days at 23 daily), some textile enterprises are in a good mood for the time being. However, more market reaction is that the current high price is actually difficult to deal with, and it is difficult for downstream customers to accept it. Due to the rapid price rise, some orders have been lost. There are also some textile enterprises lament that the high-level purchase of cotton, and so on when processing into cotton yarn shipment is not small pressure. In other words, according to the actual spinning theory, since the loss began in the middle of this year, it was not easy to turn negative into positive on October 19. It took only 10 days, and it turned into a loss again as of the 29th.

Fc2329, down from $22329. At present, the price difference between internal and external yarn is almost the same. Under the expectation of RMB appreciation, many imported yarns are in the "closed plate" state without quotation. It has to be said that another big reason why it is difficult to pass on the price of raw materials to the end brand enterprises lies in the exchange rate. Since the beginning of June this year, the RMB started a wave of rapid appreciation. Due to the better control of the epidemic situation in China, the RMB has gone up, which is good for import enterprises, but not a good thing for exports. Generally speaking, foreign trade enterprises usually settle foreign exchange in US dollars. If the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar at the time of settlement of foreign exchange falls, it means that the profits brought by the originally negotiated price have decreased. The rise and fall of exchange rate has always been a pain in the hearts of textile foreign trade. If we grasp the time point of foreign exchange settlement, we may make a sum of money, and if we do not grasp it well, we may lose a sum in vain.

On the other hand, I believe we have read a lot about the rumor that "foreign single flows to China". Although it is claimed that queuing up until May next year is fake, it is true that many orders from India are flowing to China. Some people say that Vietnam is not called "small China" in Southeast Asia? Why didn't Indian orders transfer to Vietnam this time? In particular, India's relations with us are still in a tense situation. In fact, does India want to transfer to China? The answer is obviously No. India does not want to change, but has to choose because China is the only country in the world that can undertake India's single volume. China and India are the two largest textile and garment producing countries in the world. The production capacity and output of China and India are not comparable to those of other countries. Although Vietnam also has a certain position in Southeast Asia, in China, its production capacity is not even as good as that of a province in China. If India's single volume is given to Vietnam, the Vietnamese will be working hard and will not be able to complete it by next year. In the past, the textile and clothing industry is strictly two industries: one is the textile industry, the other is the clothing industry. The former is from cotton, chemical fiber to finished fabric process. The latter is the industry of cutting and processing textiles as raw materials. According to the latest report submitted by Vietnam's Ministry of industry and trade to the national assembly, the annual export volume of textile and clothing industry is nearly 40 billion US dollars, and it needs 10 billion meters of cloth. However, the domestic fabric production capacity is only 2.3 billion meters, and the self-sufficiency rate is about 25%. Most of the fabrics are imported from China and South Korea. The domestic garment processing industry only stays in the sewing link of the industrial chain, with low added value, which is difficult to meet the requirements of the Vietnam Europe free trade agreement Therefore, we can not fully enjoy the benefits of the FTA. As the epidemic situation in India is booming or will last until the end of the year, it is very likely that orders from China's textile industry will remain at a high level in the first quarter of next year. But for these return orders, the textile and clothing industry generally judge that it is "emergency order". Once India returns to the domestic production capacity, it will not be necessary for India to restore its domestic production capacity. Fortunately, the domestic textile and clothing industry has realized that the low-end textiles are too saturated, and began to develop in the high-end direction. Sun Ruizhe, who was recently elected as the new chairman of the International Textile Federation, also said that we should gradually increase the added value of our products, further enhance the non substitutability of made in China, and open up the key nodes in the domestic and international dual cycle, which is the key to realize the sustained and high-quality development of China's foreign trade.