Yang Honghao, Director Of Industry Research Institute Of China Tourism Research Institute: Six Major Trends Of Accommodation Industry Under "Double Circulation"

On the afternoon of December 18, Yang Honghao, director of the Industry Research Institute of China Tourism Research Institute, said at the 21st century accommodation Summit Forum (2020) that the epidemic has caused domestic tourists to become the absolute main body of the domestic tourism market, and the probability rate will remain the same next year. Therefore, in the next stage of accommodation supply, we should pay attention to relying on the domestic big cycle, aiming at the domestic and international dual circulation, seize the special time window created by the epidemic situation, win the trust and confidence of domestic consumers with high-quality products; we should not only lead the supply with demand, but also create new demand by supply; at the same time, we should pay attention to some key consumer groups and key investment areas.

Yang Honghao believes that under the "double cycle" pattern, the development of the accommodation industry will present six major trends, including the rise of local brands, the acceleration of international brand localization, the improvement of market concentration, the acceleration of digital process, the extension of life service industry and the promotion of innovative laboratory economy of accommodation. Yang Honghao also said that more hotel groups should be listed to promote the high-quality development of the accommodation industry.

In the past year, because of the epidemic situation, the accommodation industry has changed dramatically. Take Beijing as an example. Previously, the proportion of overseas tourists fluctuated seasonally. When the number of inbound tourists was high, it accounted for about 18% and when it was low, it also accounted for 10%. However, after the outbreak of the new epidemic, the number of domestic tourists remained above 99%, occupying the absolute majority. This is especially true for the whole country, and the proportion will only be higher.

"It is likely that this pattern will be maintained next year." Yang Honghao pointed out that the new epidemic situation led to market changes, which led to a series of chain changes. Firstly, the travel mode is reconstructed, and the consumption preference naturally changes accordingly. Secondly, the change of demand forces the supply side reform of accommodation industry. The rise of tourism around the city requires more theme hotels such as vacation, health care and parent-child family. In the past, international brand hotels with high proportion of inbound guests made rapid adjustments to meet the needs of domestic guests.

"An important change is to reshape the industrial pattern." Yang Honghao pointed out that the power between international hotel groups and local hotel groups is slowly changing. According to the ranking of hotels by the end of 2019, there are 3 hotel groups in China that have entered the top 10 and 13 hotels have entered the top 50. However, the brand value of the hotel group only two entered the top 50, and ranked outside the 25, "our hotel scale has gone up, but the quality still has a long way to go." Yang Honghao thinks that the new crown epidemic has just given an opportunity, and the local hotel brand will gradually rise in a few years. State owned and private integration is more, now many private hotels are looking for some "backing".

The change of accommodation industry pattern makes the development trend of accommodation industry clearer under the new pattern of "double circulation". In addition to the acceleration of the rise of local brands and the acceleration of the localization of international brands, Yang Honghao pointed out that the industry concentration will gradually increase because of the following reasons: first, the owners of new projects dare not take risks in the economic downturn, and choosing strong brands can guarantee their performance. Second, poor management of single hotel began to join the brand. Third, some hotels choose stronger brands after the expiration of trusteeship or franchise. Fourth, powerful hotel groups began to acquire and merge at this time. Fifthly, due to the epidemic situation abroad, international hotel groups have increased the intensity of layout in China.

Moreover, the digital process of the accommodation industry will speed up, which is consistent with the requirements of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee that the digital strategy of cultural industry should be implemented. At present, many hotel groups are accelerating the digital transformation, and the market demand also makes more new technologies emerge in the accommodation scene, such as biometric technology used for face brushing and check-in.

Yang Honghao also pointed out that the accommodation industry will extend to the life service industry in the future. At present, in the hotel space, accommodation, food, business, exhibition, art exhibition, education, health and other needs are redefining the value of hotel space, and the cross-border integration and development of accommodation industry and other industries is becoming more mature and diversified.

Innovation is constantly emerging, and some major international hotel groups are already doing their own innovation labs, such as Marriott and four seasons. In the laboratory, the new products are tested first, and then promoted to the whole country and the world. Yang Honghao believes that in the future, many hotel groups in China will build their own innovation laboratories to make decision-making more rational and scientific.

Yang Honghao suggested that in the next stage, we should pay attention to relying on the domestic big cycle and aiming at the domestic and international double circulation. In the past two years affected by the epidemic situation, the domestic market is the basic point. We should seize the time window to let domestic consumers experience products, understand brands and increase stickiness. "Once the (outbound) market is opened in the future, if we do not seize the opportunity now, it will be more difficult in the future." Yang Honghao suggested that the accommodation industry should learn from enterprises like apple and create new demand through supply side innovation.

"We should give full play to the value of the capital market and improve the level of asset securitization in the accommodation industry.". Yang Honghao also pointed out that the market value of the listed companies of hotels and accommodation groups in the United States is about 190 billion US dollars. The market value of China's hotel groups is less than 1 / 5 of its value. There is a big gap. "We should encourage more hotel groups to realize asset securitization through listing, including continuously promoting the landing of hotel REITs."

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