Shunfeng 4 Days Down More Than 20% Express Shares "Left Buy Point" Is Now?

The negative impact of SF's first quarter performance loss continued to ferment. Although Wang Wei, chairman of SF holdings, led the core executive team to face the doubts of investors at the recent shareholders' meeting, the capital market still lacks confidence in SF holding's share price in the short term.

By the end of April 14, the shares of SF holdings closed at 64.42 yuan / share, down more than 20% in the past four trading days. Compared with the high two months ago, the latest closing price has shrunk by about 45%, close to the cut. As a result, some investors called out to copy the "express Mao" voice. However, the flow of funds shows that the main funds are still "fleeing". According to data provided by wind, on April 13, the main capital outflow of SF holdings was 433 million yuan, an increase of 130 million yuan compared with the previous trading day. On April 14, about 200 million yuan of main funds flowed out again.

Under the difference between "buy and buy" and "sell sell sell", does the stock price of "express Mao" appear a golden pit? Behind this, in addition to focusing on the individual performance of SF holdings, the recent performance of the entire A-share Express board is also worthy of attention.

The 21st century economic reporter noted that recently, the A-share express plate as a whole has entered the adjustment stage. Recently, the stock prices of Yuantong express, Yunda shares, Shentong express and Debang shares have continued to fall, setting a new low since listing. It is worth mentioning that, on March 30, Yunda shares suddenly collapsed at the end of the trading, touching the limit, causing concern. As an industry with high prosperity, express delivery industry has recently been "fragile" in the capital market.

It is undeniable that in the past decade, with the birth of e-commerce dividends, the express industry has entered a stage of rapid development. According to the statistical data released by the State Post Office, the income of China's express industry will reach 879.54 billion yuan in 2020, 14.3 times higher than that in 2010. However, despite the impact of the epidemic in 2020, domestic e-commerce demand shows certain resilience and potential, but the slowdown in the growth of the industry has become a factor that can not be ignored.

However, Shun Fung's performance exploded, which re triggered the industry's in-depth thinking on the competitive risk of the express industry. In the short-term vicious competition is difficult to stop, whether it is Shun Fung, "Tongda system", or extremely rabbit, under the fierce price "fight", I am afraid it is difficult to be alone.

SF's performance explosion has re triggered the industry's in-depth thinking on the competitive risk of the express industry. IC photo

SF profit will shrink this year

When Wang Wei confronts the question, one of his words may throw cold water on many investors.

"Many investors ask if the company lost money in the first quarter, and will it continue in the second quarter?" Wang Wei's response is, "the second quarter will certainly not lose again, but the annual profit can not return to the same period last year."

This sentence sets a tone for the profit outlook of SF this year. The financial report shows that the company's operating revenue last year reached 153.987 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.25%; the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 7.326 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.39%.

Since the backdoor listing in 2017 (annual report disclosure includes 2016), the performance scale of SF Holdings has shown an overall upward trend. In 2019, SF holding's revenue reached 100 billion mark, becoming the first private express company with 100 billion revenue in China. Such revenue data made the company ranked the fourth largest express company in the world in that year. Therefore, the capital market is full of expectations for its impact on the status of the global express giant.

The reporter noted that when the scale of SF holding's revenue continues to increase, its net profit in recent years has fallen into a state of unstable growth. In 2018, SF Holdings' net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies suffered the first decline since listing. In 2020, the net profit growth rate of SF holdings decreased by 0.84% compared with that in 2019.

At the same time, when the net profit growth of SF holdings fell into fluctuation, its gross profit rate continued to decline. In 2020, the gross profit margin of the company is 16.35%, which is 3.72 percentage points lower than that at the initial stage of listing.

Reporter analysis found that, behind the Earnings Fluctuation of SF holdings, the change of its main product structure income had an important impact. Specifically, the company's products include: timeliness, economy, express, cold transport and medicine, intra city express delivery, international and supply chain. In 2020, the revenue of SF holding's top five main products, including timeliness, economy, express transportation, supply chain, cold transport and medicine, will be 66.360 billion yuan, 44.148 billion yuan, 18.517 billion yuan, 7.104 billion yuan and 6.497 billion yuan respectively. Among them, the top three main products are timeliness, economy and express transportation, with the revenue proportion of 43.09%, 28.67% and 12.02% respectively.

Compared with that in 2019, the revenue share of the three main products of SF holdings decreased in time, and the economy and express transportation increased.

Both time effectiveness and economic products are the traditional business of SF holdings. Time effective products refer to "SF instant", "SF next morning" and "SF standard express", i.e. medium and high-end commercial products; economic products refer to SF's preferential series, including special products, i.e. medium and low-end e-commerce products.

Unlike "Tongda system" which relies on e-commerce products for blood transfusion, SF Holdings' core competitiveness lies in time effective products. This part has been the "cash cow" of SF holdings. On the one hand, the company holds the top position in the market share in the field of medium and high-end commercial parts all the year round, and the price sensitivity of medium and high-end commercial parts is low. SF Holdings has strong bargaining power on the basis of good service, and the profit level of this part of business is high.

However, this main business has encountered a growth ceiling in recent years. From 2017 to 2020, the revenue growth rates of SF holding's time effective products were 1.40%, 14.30%, 5.93% and 17.41%, respectively, with obvious fluctuations.

In 2020, SF holding's main products with significant growth rate are economy, express transportation, intra city express delivery, international and supply chain, with year-on-year growth rates ranging from 40% to 110%. Combined with the scale of revenue, economy and express transportation have a greater impact on SF. These two main products not only impact the profits of SF holdings, but also the main output point of the company to increase capital expenditure.

When there is a bottleneck in the growth of high-end aging products, sinking has become the choice of SF holdings. Since the launch of preferential products in May 2019, SF has achieved success in the medium and low-end e-commerce parts market, and its market share has continued to increase. In 2020, the business volume of SF holdings was 8.137 billion, accounting for 9.76% of the total, an increase of 2.15 percentage points compared with that in 2019.

However, e-commerce products have never been a high profit territory, and SF holdings, which has gained market share, is powerless in gross profit margin, which is clearly reflected in the gross profit rate trend of the company in the four quarters of last year. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the gross profit margin of SF holdings was 11.97%, a new low since its listing.

However, Shunfeng holding, which cut into the small profit of e-commerce parts, can continue to seize the market share depends on the cost control. This is not what the asset heavy and direct marketing model can afford. Facing the demand of e-commerce parts, capacity is one of the biggest bottlenecks of SF holdings. As a result, in August last year, SF holdings tried the water franchise system and launched the "Fengwang" brand. This also means that SF holdings is more and more tit for tat in the competition with franchise express companies such as "Tongda system" and "Jitu".

Express "price war" continues

It is undeniable that SF holdings is the most competitive private express company in China. On the track of integrated logistics service providers, the company is indeed at the forefront. However, in the competition in the field of e-commerce parts, it is easy to fall into the dilemma of "the strong dragon can not beat the local snake".

According to the operating data, the company's total revenue of express logistics and supply chain from January to February this year totaled 27.595 billion yuan, an increase of 33.72% over the same period of last year, and the accumulated express logistics business volume totaled 1.602 billion tickets, an increase of 53.89% over the same period of last year. Both data are far below the industry level. In contrast, the business volume of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in January and February this year all achieved more than 100% growth, and the growth rate of business income was also higher than the industry level.

If we say that SF holdings benefited from the first mover advantage of network operation efficiency last year, it succeeded in "sneaking attack". So this year, on the same starting line of competition, is the real time to test the strength of SF holdings in the field of e-commerce parts.

At present, the flow of e-commerce platform is decentralized and multi platform is rising, and the economic parts market growth potential is still large.

The Skynet, ground network and information network constructed by SF holdings at present support the operation of the whole company's transportation network. The transportation of e-commerce products mainly involves the land transportation network controlled by SF. By the end of 2020, the company has about 58000 self operated and outsourced trunk and branch line vehicles, 130000 trunk and branch lines opened, and about 50000 terminal outlets.

This scale is larger than "Tongda system". Take Zhongtong express, which is the largest scale in "Tongda system", as an example. By the end of 2020, the company has about 10500 trunk vehicles, more than 3600 trunk transportation routes and about 30000 terminal outlets.

In terms of transport capacity, SF Holdings has significant advantages. However, how much of these capacity can be invested in the field of e-commerce products? Compared with "Tongda system" which is almost "all in" for e-commerce transport capacity, SF holdings is easy to be separated and lack of skills. "However, due to the impact of the epidemic in the first half of last year, the necessary capital expenditure of the company was delayed, and the business volume ushered in further expansion at the peak of last year, which led to the obvious bottleneck of transfer capacity, and the company needed to use more temporary expensive and inefficient resources to compensate; at the same time, the fourth quarter was the peak of e-commerce increment, and the capacity bottleneck affected the processing efficiency, resulting in cost In 2020, Q4 gross profit rate will decline SF holdings expressed concerns about capacity.

According to the reporter's analysis, SF holdings really needs to face heavy cost pressure since last year.

First, capital expenditure is gradually increasing, which will aggravate the impact on cost. In 2020, SF Holdings' capital expenditure was 14.15 billion yuan, of which 6.2 billion yuan was in the fourth quarter, an increase of 231% over the same period in 2019. The impact of centralized capital expenditure investment on profitability has also appeared in 2018. At that time, SF holdings increased its investment in new businesses such as express, cold transport and medicine to expand diversified logistics services, resulting in the company's net profit falling for the first time since its listing.

Second, the price of e-commerce preferential items held by SF holdings is on the high side, which depends on the company's own cost. According to the statistics of the State Post Office, the single ticket price of China's express delivery industry has dropped from 20.70 yuan to 10.55 yuan in 2020. According to the reporter's calculation, the single ticket cost of SF holdings last year was 14 yuan to 16 yuan.

The cost is higher than the average price of the industry, which makes SF holding's bargaining power not strong when it enters the hinterland of Tongda system. It is reported that the price of Shunfeng holding's special products for e-commerce users ranges from 6 yuan to 8 yuan. However, the single ticket cost of e-commerce express is generally around 4-6 yuan. This makes e-commerce express with price sensitivity more vulnerable to low price stimulation.

As a result, the "price war" of e-commerce parts has lasted for a long time.

In 2020, under the influence of epidemic situation and other factors, the competition pattern of domestic e-commerce will have a new evolution. The rise of platforms such as pinduoduo and live e-commerce has impacted the inherent pattern of Alibaba and Jingdong, and the "grain producing area" of e-commerce products is no longer unitary. Relying on E-commerce makes it easier for express delivery enterprises to obtain the support of order quantity. As for the selection of e-commerce customers, it depends on who gives them more favorable prices.

"Tongda system" and "Jitu" have the cost to fight a "price war", because their single ticket cost is very low. "Price war" is also very easy to help new entrants to break through, because the distribution of business volume in different regions is uneven. If you occupy one side of the mountain, you will be able to "pull one hair and move the whole body".

Valuation logic of express stocks

It has to be said that because of the "price war", the competition in the domestic express industry has fallen into "Involution". Whether it is SF holdings, or "Tongda system", or even the agitator, pressure on performance is a common short-term dilemma.

The recent downturn of A-share express plate is closely related to the factors of "price war". From the valuation point of view, the current valuation of the entire A-share express plate is not expensive. According to the wind express index (884818. WI), the dynamic P / E ratio of the index's constituent stocks as a whole was 29.87 times as of the end of April 13. Taking this as a reference, the latest dynamic P / E ratios of Yunda shares, Yuantong express and Debang shares are all lower than this value; the dynamic P / E ratios of SF holdings and Shentong express are around 40 times.

In the short-term logic, the factors affecting the valuation of express companies are reflected in the business volume (affecting market share) and cost control (affecting profit expectations).

At present, the overall incremental opportunities of the express industry lie in the rise of multi-party e-commerce platforms, the new demand driven by local life services (community group buying) and the sinking of express market under the revitalization of rural areas. It is worth noting that the main driving force of express delivery to the countryside is still e-commerce. Under the influence of the "price war", the final competition of "Tongda system" is the input of production capacity and the control of cost due to the homogenization of service for e-commerce parts. According to the reporter's calculation, the order of single ticket cost from low to high is Zhongtong, Yunda, Yuantong, Shentong and Baishi.

The investment of production capacity depends on the investment of capital expenditure. In recent years, the major express companies have increased capital expenditure, expand investment in land, vehicles, equipment and other aspects, in order to reduce operating costs. In the first three quarters of 2020 (because some express companies have not yet disclosed the annual report of 2020), the capital expenditure ranking of Tongda department is Zhongtong (7.2 billion yuan), Yunda (4 billion yuan), Yuantong (3.1 billion yuan), Shentong (2 billion yuan) and Baishi (1.3 billion yuan). Among them, combined with the latest financial data of Zhongtong, its capital expenditure in 2020 will be RMB 9.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 76.2%.

Therefore, in the context of "price war", the fundamental point of short-term express companies is almost concentrated on market share and profitability.

In addition, for SF holdings, the above two points also determine the short-term valuation. However, Wang Wei's sentence that "there will be no more losses in the second quarter", but "the annual profit can not return to the same period last year", almost temporarily stopped the capital market's expectation for SF holdings to reverse the situation in the short term.

In the long run, Shunfeng holdings and Tongda system are building a moat of diversified business in order to realize the stage competition transformation from the competition for the leader to the struggle for the oligarchy.

In 2020, the relationship between domestic express delivery and e-commerce appears a trend of deep binding. Up to now, as the e-commerce war has evolved into the "Three Kingdoms killing" of Ali, Jingdong and pinduoduo, logistics, as a supplementary service for business flow, has also begun to form an alisystem composed of Yuantong, Shentong and Baishi. Jingdong Logistics is backed by Jingdong, and Jitu initially relies on pinduoduo. Comparatively speaking, SF holdings is relatively independent, while Zhongtong and Yunda are held by Ali, but the proportion of equity is not high enough to control the operation of the company and maintain relative independence.

To some extent, e-commerce is a "sword of Damocles" for express enterprises. When the influence factors of business flow on logistics are too strong, the autonomy of logistics will be impacted, and the imagination of growth space will become narrow.

In this context, the track of integrated logistics has become the only way for logistics enterprises to transform. At present, Shunfeng and Zhongtong are in the front.

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