"Emergency Brake" For Centralized Land Supply In Multiple Cities

After Shenzhen announced the suspension of the second batch of centralized land supply, many cities joined the ranks of land auction postponement.

Behind the impending "sudden brake", the land auction rules may be adjusted. The "scalpel" of urban real estate regulation points to the land market, and the "stable land price" is really moving towards "controlling the actual land price", which is conducive to the stability of housing price level.

On August 10, Tianjin issued the supplementary announcement on listing transfer of the right to use state owned construction land in Tianjin (hereinafter referred to as the supplementary announcement), which adjusted the deadline for listing the second batch of centralized land supply from August 20 to September 10.

In addition, the supplementary notice also added five conditions, requiring the bidding enterprises to have the qualification of real estate development enterprises, to submit the capital source commitment of their shareholders who have not illegally provided loans, loans, guarantees or other related financing facilities, and the credit certificate of the bidding enterprise with good credit, and the bidding deposit must be paid from its own account.

It is worth noting that Tianjin stipulates that after a single residential land reaches the maximum price limit, the lottery method is adopted to determine the winner, and the ceiling price of 61 plots is adjusted. According to the calculation of the reporter of the 21st century economic report, the premium rate of all plots has been reduced from no more than 50% to no more than 15%.

The change of Tianjin local auction rules is consistent with the policy adjustment made by the Ministry of natural resources closed door meeting. According to the document information circulated in the market, the Ministry of natural resources requires local governments to adjust the land auction policy, including "the premium rate of single land shall not exceed 15%", "after reaching the upper limit, the actual land price shall not be increased by means of competitive construction, and the winner can be determined through reasonable one-time bidding, lottery and bidding for higher and better construction quality".

21st century economic reporter confirmed the document from multiple sources.

On August 11, Qingdao announced that the second batch of centralized land auction was "postponed for some reasons", and the public transfer was implemented again. The time of public transfer shall be subject to the announcement at that time. The 21st century economic report called Qingdao Municipal Bureau of natural resources and planning to learn that "there may be a big adjustment after the centralized soil photography. The specific content is mainly the announcement. We can't provide accurate information.".

At the same time, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Dongguan, Jinhua, Huizhou and other hot cities have recently adjusted the land auction rules, and implemented the bidding mode of "limiting house price, controlling land price and improving quality".

According to the analysis of Yihan think tank, by adjusting the land auction rules to control the land auction heat in core cities, stabilize the land price and realize the stable operation of the land market, we can not only maintain the fair and reasonable land transfer, but also promote the overall market to maintain a low level.

Solve the problem of high premium for the first batch of centralized land supply

Among the 22 cities implementing centralized land supply, Hangzhou's first batch of land auction was relatively hot, with a premium rate of 26%. It ranked first among the 22 cities. 41 plots were sold for self-sustaining because of premium capping, with the highest self-sustaining proportion of 40%.

In order to curb the high fever of the local auction market, Hangzhou announced on July 30 that it would adjust the second batch of centralized land auction rules. On the one hand, the mechanism of 50 million yuan margin deposit was cancelled, and the margin proportion was restored to 20%, and the bidding threshold of real estate enterprises was raised; On the other hand, the upper limit of premium rate will be reduced to 20%, and the area of rental housing will be adjusted from "competitive self-sustaining" to "free transfer of government", so as to realize the goal of stabilizing land price, accelerate the construction of urban rental housing and guide real estate enterprises to acquire land rationally; In addition, the pilot project of competitive quality is implemented. The first is to compete for quality and then to compete for land price. The pilot plot of competitive quality is sold in existing houses. At the same time, the upper limit of premium rate is set at 10%.

In the first batch of land auctions in Wuxi, 14 of the 16 land auctions were for lease or construction with land prices reaching the top. In the second batch of centralized land auctions, it was adjusted that all plots were adopted the method of shaking the ceiling, hoping to curb the excessive heat of land prices and achieve the effect of strict control of land prices.

However, the establishment of the actual effect shows that the transaction premium rate of the second batch of concentrated land auction residential land in Wuxi is 4.1%, which is significantly lower than that of the first batch of 12.39%. At the same time, the actual transaction price of many plots is controlled at a reasonable level.

In contrast, in the cities where the second batch of centralized transfer has been postponed or suspended recently, Tianjin, Shenzhen and Qingdao have not made great changes in the second batch of centralized land auction rules previously announced for the first time, and failed to make effective response to the problems.

Tianjin only mentioned the rigid requirement of adding self-sustaining lease in the initial announcement of the second batch of centralized land auction, and the rest did not change. Therefore, in the supplementary announcement reissued on August 10, the maximum price premium rate of 61 plots was reduced from no more than 50% to no more than 15%. The bidding method was also changed to "land price limit + lottery". At the same time, real estate enterprises were required to issue qualification certificates and strengthen the qualification examination of bidding real estate enterprises.

The premium rate of the first batch of centralized land auction in Shenzhen is 30.9%, which belongs to the city with high popularity of soil auction. However, the upper limit of premium set by the second batch of centralized land auction is still as high as 45%. Qingdao has not further restricted the premium rate of the second batch of centralized land auction. "This is not in line with the regulation requirements of the central government for" stabilizing land prices and stabilizing expectations ", and it is not difficult to understand why the second batch of centralized land auction in Shenzhen, Tianjin and Qingdao, which should have been sold in Wuxi, have been postponed or postponed one after another."

According to the prediction of kerrui real estate research center, the adjustment direction of the second batch of land transfer policies in Shenzhen, Qingdao and other cities will also be consistent with that of Tianjin, reducing the premium rate, canceling competitive construction and replacing it with lottery or competitive quality, so as to realize the goal of stabilizing land price.

According to the analysis of Yihan think tank, with the control of premium rate and disorderly land acquisition by real estate enterprises, small and medium-sized real estate enterprises will have more opportunities to participate and eventually realize the stable development of the land market.

Control real land price to stabilize house price

Zhang qiguang, director general of the real estate market supervision department of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, said publicly on July 22 that "efforts should be made to establish a real estate linkage mechanism, promote the practice of Beijing, limit house prices, control land prices and improve quality, establish a qualification examination system for land purchasing enterprises, and establish a mechanism for examining and withdrawing land purchase funds". In the adjustment of the auction rules issued by Hangzhou and Tianjin, the real estate linkage mechanism has begun to be adopted, the price control has been strengthened, and the measures of competing for high-quality construction schemes have also been emphasized.

"From the first centralized land supply, we can see that although the premium rate is set at the upper limit, the acquisition of land by increasing the proportion of construction and allocation is everywhere, which increases the actual land acquisition cost in disguise." According to the analysis of Yihan think tank, this wave of land auction policy adjustment can reduce the actual cost of land acquisition of real estate enterprises to a certain extent, guide the mode of land auction from "the one with higher price" to "the one who tends to get the average bidder" and "the one with high quality". It can effectively avoid the blind land grabbing of real estate enterprises and pay more attention to improving the competitiveness of green buildings and prefabricated buildings.

A Beijing Executive of a national real estate enterprise told the 21st century economic report that the high-quality construction plan has higher and higher requirements for products, but it will indeed urge real estate enterprises to increase product investment, and everyone is actively increasing research efforts. It is expected that the second batch of centralized land supply in Beijing will still emphasize the high-quality construction scheme“ The original land auction, to the end is to fight for the price, even if you get the land, in fact, it is very uncomfortable, it is inevitable to strictly control the cost. But now the local government has given up profits. Although the developers are still investing in the high-standard construction scheme, it is equivalent to transferring the funds originally invested in the land price to the construction scheme, which is relatively better. "

Crerui real estate research center also pointed out that "controlling the actual land price" will become the main direction of land side control in hot cities. The control of land price will also benefit the return of industry profits to a reasonable level. When the increase of real land price slows down, the trend of house price will be further stable.

Since mid-2020, the "three red lines" and "two concentration" have been introduced one after another. The central level has repeatedly reiterated the long-term mechanism of real estate, renovated and standardized the real estate market order. Recently, it has strictly controlled the urban renewal, demolition and construction. Various urban regulatory policies have been increased. Second hand housing price control has also been added to the policy toolbox. A series of regulatory combination fists have covered real estate investment, real estate demolition and construction Financing, operation, sales, supply chain and other links have formed a complete closed-loop control.

In this round of land regulation and control, strict control of land price is from the source of the real estate chain. If the land price can be effectively controlled, the follow-up links can also transmit this effect.

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