Where To Find The Logic Of "Branch Line" Left Behind?
Dong Peng, researcher of the 21st Century Capital Research Institute
There is no doubt that the secondary market is trying to switch styles recently.
Taking the new energy vehicle industry chain as an example, it shows the characteristics of "selling high and buying low".
According to the statistics of the 21st Century Capital Research Institute, from the beginning of August to 11, the lithium mining sector (excluding Salt Lake shares) which led the rise in the year fell by 0.52%, while the power battery, new energy vehicle and electrolyte increased by 9.67%, 4.99% and 10.39% in the same period.
In addition, according to the data of Hongze research, since 2019, the market value of high valuation positions accounted for 70.5%, and the market value of undervalued positions accounted for 17.3%. The two data are very close to the upper and lower edge positions of the historical range, and the market seems to be on the turning point again.
Investors are most concerned about, if the capital outflow from the high valuation plate, which target will they choose?
In the short-term market, some sectors with good profitability and undervalued advantages are in the same direction, such as mining, steel, real estate and banks. For example, the supply side of the steel industry is expected to shrink again in the second half of the year, thus supporting the boom to rise again.
However, although such enterprises have valuation advantages, due to the characteristics of industry attributes and cyclical fluctuations, the overall profit of the industry lacks "increment".
Its rising sustainability will lag behind other industries with growth certainty.
In contrast, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute found that in the context of the continuation of the new energy vehicle boom, while the vehicle, power battery and lithium mining stocks have accumulated extremely considerable growth, the secondary market may conduct in-depth mining of its subdivided industrial chain, such as the core "three big" drive motor and other industry targets.
Judging from the news, this logic is widely concerned by some institutional investors.
Driven by the terminal demand, such companies are also in the state of "full production and full sales", with strong performance growth certainty, and some equity weeks have changed.
August 13, located in the head of the ocean motor, founder motor trading, stock prices have reached a new high stage.
Although the attention is not as good as the power battery, the lack of driving motor directly determines the core performance of new energy vehicles such as instantaneous acceleration. Visual China ?
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Krypton 001, Geely's "net red" electric model, has previously caused consumer dissatisfaction.
Incentives include a change in the supplier of the drive motor and a reduction in the maximum peak torque of the vehicle.
The drive system with the driving motor as the core, and the battery, electronic control are the three core parts of the new energy vehicle.
Although the attention is not as good as the power battery, it directly determines the core performance of the new energy vehicle such as instantaneous acceleration and maximum speed.
In terms of motor classification, it mainly includes DC motor, switched reluctance motor, permanent magnet synchronous motor and induction motor.
Among them, DC motor has been gradually eliminated, switched reluctance motor noise, vibration, mainly used in buses, freight cars and other commercial vehicles.
Permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) and induction motor (IM) have similar characteristics, both of which can ensure high efficiency. However, the former is superior to instantaneous high-efficiency output, while the latter is suitable for continuous input under stable conditions.
Corresponding to the application scenario, permanent magnet synchronous motor is suitable for frequent starting and stopping conditions and small passenger car layout space, while induction motor is suitable for high-speed road network developed conditions and large passenger car layout space. For example, model s used induction motor in the early stage.
Due to the above performance characteristics, permanent magnet synchronous motor is widely used in new energy vehicles.
In terms of material end, permanent magnet synchronous motor is corresponding to neodymium, iron, boron and rare earth resources. In this respect, domestic advantages are relatively obvious, while European and American countries are relatively lack.
Therefore, domestic new energy vehicles, such as BYD "Han", Weilai ES6, Xiaopeng P7 and other models, generally use permanent magnet synchronous motors, or they are used in combination with other motors, and even some high-performance versions adopt the structure that the front and rear motors are permanent magnet synchronous motors.
Among them, BYD and Weilai motors are self-produced by their own companies, while Xiaopeng is from external suppliers such as founder motor.
With the increase of domestic sales of new energy vehicles, the demand of matching drive system increases, and the trend of the two industries is highly positive correlation.
According to the data of NE Research Institute, in 2020, the installed capacity of electric drive market of new energy passenger vehicles will be 1.357 million units, while the installed capacity from January to June this year has reached 1.154 million units, which is basically consistent with the sales data of 1.206 million new energy vehicles in the same period.
On the other hand, Tesla is also looking for localization of the supply chain. After adopting the lithium iron phosphate power battery of Ningde era, the news of replacing the domestic motor was also heard recently.
The company plans to produce five new versions of model y in Shanghai Super factory, three of which adopt dual motor structure, and the version of 60kwh battery pack and 78.4kwh battery pack adopt domestic motor.
Taking the model y long endurance version as an example, the power and torque data of the front axle motor have not changed. The maximum power of the rear axle motor has been increased from 244 horsepower to 300 horsepower, and the maximum torque has been increased from 326nm to 440nm.
With the continuous expansion of independent brands and the dual drive of localization of foreign brand supply chain, the prosperity of domestic drive motor industry is rapidly improving.
Independent suppliers should not be ignored
Due to the huge difference between the power system and the traditional fuel vehicle, various automobile enterprises are also establishing their own supply chain system.
In July this year, Mercedes Benz announced the acquisition of Yasa, an electric drive technology company, which provides motors for the amg.ea pure electric platform, a high-performance brand of Mercedes Benz.
In terms of the supply pattern of the domestic market, it is mainly divided into three categories: independent R & D and production of traditional and new energy vehicle enterprises, domestic independent third-party suppliers and foreign auto parts suppliers.
Among them, Tesla, Fudi power (formerly affiliated to BYD powertrain Division), Weilai drive technology and other companies with vehicle enterprise background occupy the absolute advantage, but the market position and share of Jingjin electric, founder motor and Shanghai electric drive (subsidiary of Dayang electric machinery Holding Co., Ltd.) can not be ignored.
"Since the second half of 2020, the company has gradually increased the volume of drive motor shipment. At present, it ranks among the top three in the industry and the first independent third-party supplier. The company's monthly delivery volume is currently stable at 340000 units, which has initially formed a large-scale advantage. " Founder electric machinery pointed out in the survey on June 29.
According to the official reply of the company, the company delivered nearly 200000 new energy vehicle drive motors in the first half of the year, including SAIC GM Wuling, Xiaopeng, Geely, etc.
According to the data of NE Research Institute, from January to June this year, the market share of Founder motor and Shanghai electric drive passenger car motor reached 10.2% and 6.2% respectively, ranking the third and fifth respectively. In the same period, the market share of Tesla and Fudi power was 16.3% and 13.4%.
As for the specific installed capacity data, the 21st Century Capital Research Institute respectively verified with Founder electric machinery and ocean electric machinery on August 12. However, since the semi annual report has not been disclosed, neither company can provide accurate data.
However, under the background of large terminal demand this year, the motor products of the two companies are expected to achieve significant growth.
In terms of product application and layout, it is also in line with the current industry trend.
According to the official website of Shanghai electric drive Co., Ltd., in addition to 55kW two in one system, 90kw and 110KW drive systems, the company also includes three in one systems with peak power of 110KW.
The so-called "multi in one" system refers to the integration of electric drive system of new energy vehicles, "two in one" is motor + reducer, and "three in one" system includes motor + reducer + motor controller.
At present, the "three in one" system is the mainstream of the market. For example, the 110KW three in one system driven by Shanghai electric power has the advantages of reducing volume, weight, vibration and noise of motor.
At the end of June, fangzheng Electric Machinery Co., Ltd. said that it had obtained the new model fixed point of a new automobile manufacturing enterprise, and was developing 800V high-voltage drive motor for it, and was expected to mass produce in the second half of next year. By the end of next year, the production capacity of the company's motors will be about 500000, and by the middle of next year, it will be more than 800000. By the end of next year, more than 1 million motors will be produced, with flat wire motors accounting for about half.
It should be pointed out that both 800V high voltage drive motor and flat wire motor are in line with the development trend of new energy vehicle drive motor in the future.
In this regard, founder motor is more assertive, "from the current vehicle enterprises released new cars, we estimate that around 2023, the market will turn to flat wire motor."
Hype or "deepening" of new energy vehicles
Although they are the core components of new energy vehicles, the growth of motor sector is obviously lagging behind the power battery industry chain.
According to statistics, the average growth rate of the 24 listed companies included in the wind power battery sector was 78.51% from the beginning of the year to August 12. During the same period, the growth rates of Founder motor and Dayang motor were 25.65% and 65.77% respectively.
The cumulative value of the increase, the two companies can not be compared with lithium, electrolyte and other power battery segments; The absolute value of the stock price, after the resumption of the right, the price is far lower than the historical high.
The reasons include that the attention of the secondary market cannot be compared with that of the power battery sector, and the financial situation of the two companies themselves.
Dayang Electric Machinery Co., Ltd. is slightly better. In the first half of this year, it is estimated that the net profit will be 215 million yuan to 285 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of more than 180%. Founder electric machinery has just realized a turnaround, with a net profit of only 6 million yuan to 9 million yuan in the first half of the year.
In view of this, the two companies have not yet entered the stage of large-scale performance cash statements.
Another factor is that the rising price of commodities suppresses its overall profit margin. The company may need a certain period of time to digest the impact of cost rise in order to seek the recovery of profit margin.
In other words, the Growth Logic of the above two manufacturing enterprises is different from that of the upstream raw material industry. The growth of the latter's performance mainly depends on the increase of profit margin brought by the rise of commodity prices, while the former focuses on the growth of production and sales volume brought about by the outbreak of downstream demand.
From the perspective of performance elasticity, in the cycle of commodity price rise, upstream raw material enterprises are more flexible, so the main direction of A-share market in the second quarter is concentrated on lithium and other plates.
However, the lithium plate is also facing the problem of excessive cumulative growth and high valuation level.
As far as the new energy vehicle industry chain is concerned, in 2020 and the first half of this year, the absolute value of the stock price of the whole vehicle, power battery and lithium plate in the downstream, midstream and upstream of the industry are all at historical highs.
According to the 21st Century Capital Research Institute, if the periodic top of lithium ore plate is established in the second half of the year, it is possible that the secondary market will turn to speculation in the electric control system, drive motor industry, or even intelligent cars, unmanned driving and other sectors.
This week in lithium stock adjustment, some of the above plate has been changed.
Among them, Dayang Electric Machinery Co., Ltd. has the strongest trend. After the fall on Monday, the trading limit was on Wednesday and Friday, and nearly 18% increase was made in that week, and founder motor was also trading on Friday.
It should be pointed out that due to the small scale of the above companies, it is difficult to provide sufficient liquidity. At present, the secondary market pays little attention to the motor sector.
The number of motor industry reports issued by securities companies is small, and the fund has not made obvious intervention. The subsequent start of motor sector may need further consensus from the market.
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