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Cotton Price Rises Sharply, Spinning Profit Of Spinning Enterprises Shrinks Sharply

2021/10/2 13:40:00 0

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According to the Statistics Bureau, the yarn output in August 2021 will be 2.405 million tons, an increase of 94000 tons or 4.07% over the same period of last year. From January to August of 2021, the yarn output will be 18.504 million tons, with an increase of 2.398 million tons or 14.8%. This year, the orders of textile enterprises are booming. Most of the yarn mills have zero or negative inventory, and the subsequent orders are in front. Some large-scale factories arrange orders for 2-3 months. With full load production, the spinning profits of textile enterprises are running at a high level, and the new production capacity is put into production, resulting in the increase of yarn output on a year-on-year basis; The follow-up focuses on the order release of double 11, Christmas and new year's day.

In September 2021, China imported 180000 tons of cotton yarn, unchanged on a month on month basis, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%; From January to August 2021, China imported 1.49 million tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 24.2% year on year; In 2020 / 21 (2020.9-2021.8), China imported 2.19 million tons of cotton yarn, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. Although it is the traditional peak season of "gold, silver and ten" in the industry, the signs of peak season are not very obvious. Due to factors such as the rising freight of HNA and other factors, and the high quotation of imported yarn from external disk, the market order of imported yarn has great risk; It is expected that the subsequent import volume will decrease slightly.

According to the latest survey data of some textile enterprises with a scale of more than 50000 spindles in six regions of China by Mysteel cotton team, as of September 24, yarn inventory of textile enterprises in major regions of the country was 16.4 days, 0.6 days higher than last week, 3.8% higher than last week, and 29.3% lower than that of last year. Textile mills and printing and dyeing factories in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places have limited electricity and production to curb the demand for cotton yarn, and the finished products of yarn mills are accumulated in stock. At present, the orders of textile enterprises can still maintain production and sales, and the merchants send goods according to the order, and the market quotation gradually weakens; The short-term stock accumulation of textile enterprises is obvious; However, September is the traditional peak season of the textile market, and the orders of some large-scale factories can maintain the level of 1-2 months, and follow-up orders of downstream textile mills are followed up; It is expected that after the National Day festival, the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises will remain at a low level.

According to Mysteel data, on September 30, the spot profit of c32s ring spinning of textile enterprises was 104.9 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 95% on a weekly basis and a decrease of 96% on a month on month basis. At the end of the month, the spot price was stronger driven by the disk price of cotton futures, and the spot price in the market was high. The picking price of Xinjiang machine picked cotton in 3128b warehouse in Xinjiang was 20000-20600 yuan / ton, and that in China was 20100-20800 yuan / ton, The spot price of cotton rose sharply, but the pace of cotton yarn follow-up was slow, the peak season was not brisk, and the market orders were weak at the beginning of the month. The textile enterprises reflected that although there was no peak season performance, the overall production and sales could still maintain operation, and the actual transaction of new orders was negotiable. In addition, some regional traders had the phenomenon of selling goods, and the cotton yarn price was weak, and the driving force of the demand side of the industrial chain was still insufficient; Downstream textile mills are worried about the slow digestion of inventory in autumn and winter, facing the situation of insufficient funds and orders. Under the pressure of capital chain, the enthusiasm of production is reduced. Some enterprises with greater inventory pressure can reduce their profits or shut down some machines to relieve the pressure; At the end of the month, with the sharp rise of cotton and cotton yarn futures prices, the spot price of cotton yarn in the market stopped falling and stabilized. Some textile enterprises raised the yarn quotation of 500-800 yuan / ton, and the national average price of 32S ring spinning of pure cotton was 27480 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.14%. At this stage, as the National Day holiday is approaching, the downstream regions mostly keep a wait-and-see situation, and the enthusiasm of stock preparation is not strong. The overall market sales situation is general, and businesses purchase on demand, There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

On the macro level, the relevant departments issued a batch of cotton import sliding tax quota, organized relevant enterprises to quickly import their own cotton from domestic bonded areas, put them on the market in time, and meet the cotton demand of cotton spinning enterprises; In the future, measures such as increasing the supply of reserve cotton will be taken to increase the supply of market resources and promote the smooth operation of the cotton market.

In terms of supply, during the national day, the machine picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang concentrated on increasing the quantity, the market expected to rush for harvest and the psychological selling price of cotton farmers was higher, and the lint cost in the new year was expected to remain high.

In terms of demand, downstream textile enterprises and traders generally have a 3-4-day holiday during the national day. Affected by the "double control", downstream textile factories have been in the state of reducing production and de stocking. In the follow-up, we will focus on the order release of double 11, Christmas and new year's Day.