National Bureau Of Statistics: CPI Growth In February Fell Back Year-On-Year, And PPI Continued To Decline Year-On-Year

The National Bureau of Statistics today released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) data for February 2023. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

1、 CPI has declined month on month, and year-on-year growth has dropped

In February, affected by factors such as the fall in consumer demand after the festival and the sufficient market supply, the consumer price of residents declined month on month, and the year-on-year growth slowed down.

On a month on month basis, CPI increased by 0.8% last month and decreased by 0.5%.

Among them, food prices fell 2.0% from a 2.8% rise last month, affecting CPI by about 0.38 percentage points. In the food sector, the consumer demand fell after the festival, and the weather turned warm and the supply was sufficient, so the prices of most fresh food fell, of which the prices of pork and fresh vegetables dropped by 11.4% and 4.4% respectively, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.28 percentage points in total, accounting for more than 50% of the total CPI decline; The prices of fresh fruits, eggs, aquatic products, beef, mutton and poultry dropped by 0.4% - 4.3%; Food prices, such as grain and edible oil, were basically stable. Non food prices fell 0.2% from a 0.3% rise last month, affecting CPI by about 0.13 percentage points.

In the non food category, most service prices fell seasonally after the festival, including air tickets, transportation rental fees and tourism prices, which fell by 12.0%, 9.5% and 6.5% respectively, and the prices of film and performance tickets, hairdressing, family services, pet services, etc. fell by 1.7% - 5.6%.

From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 1.0%, 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate dropped significantly, mainly due to the wrong month of the Spring Festival, and the year-on-year comparison base was relatively high. Among them, food prices rose by 2.6%, 3.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.48 percentage points.

In food, the prices of potatoes, fresh fruits, eggs and poultry meat rose by 14.4%, 8.5%, 7.9% and 6.4% respectively, all of which fell back from the previous month; Pork prices rose 3.9%, down 7.9 percentage points; The prices of grain and edible oil rose by 2.7% and 6.4% respectively, with basically stable growth; The prices of fresh vegetables and aquatic products decreased by 3.8% and 1.5% respectively.

Non food prices rose 0.6%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.50 percentage points. Among non food items, service prices rose by 0.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, air ticket prices and travel prices rose by 19.9% and 3.0% respectively, both of which declined significantly; Energy prices rose 0.6%, 2.4 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, of which gasoline and diesel prices rose 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, 5.1 and 5.6 percentage points lower respectively; The price of industrial consumer goods excluding energy rose by 0.5%, basically stable.

It is estimated that among the 1.0% year-on-year CPI increase in February, the tail lifting effect of the price change in the previous year was about 0.7 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase was about 0.3 percentage points. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.6% year on year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.

2、 PPI remained flat month on month and continued to decline year on year

In February, the production recovery of industrial enterprises accelerated, the market demand improved, and the PPI was flat month on month; Affected by the high base of comparison in the same period of last year, it continued to decline year on year.

On a month on month basis, PPI was flat from a decline of 0.4% last month. Among them, the price of means of production increased by 0.1% instead of decreasing by 0.5%; The price of means of subsistence fell by 0.3%, the same rate as last month. The import factors pushed up the prices of domestic oil related industries, among which the prices of oil and natural gas exploitation industry rose by 1.7%, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries rose by 0.6%.

The market of metal related industries is expected to improve and demand has recovered. The price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose 1.7%, and the price of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose 1.0%. The coal production was stable, and the demand for heating coal was reduced due to the rising temperature. The price of coal mining and washing industry decreased by 2.2%, 1.7 percentage points more than that of last month. In addition, the prices of computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry fell 1.1%, agricultural and sideline food processing industry fell 0.3%, and textile industry fell 0.3%, all of which narrowed.

On a year-on-year basis, PPI fell by 1.4%, 0.6 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The year-on-year decline was expanded, mainly due to the increase in the comparison base of oil and other industries in the same period last year.

Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 2.0%, with a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; The price of means of living rose 1.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Among the 40 industrial sectors surveyed, 17 saw their prices fall, two more than the previous month.

Among the main industries, the price decline has expanded: the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry declined by 6.0%, expanding by 0.9 percentage points; Nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 5.3%, expanding by 0.9 percentage points. The price decline narrowed: the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 10.9%, 0.8 percentage points;

The non-metallic mineral products industry declined by 6.2%, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. The prices of the oil and natural gas exploitation industry declined from 5.3% last month to 3.0%; Computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry fell 0.5% from a 0.4% rise last month.

The price increases and decreases include: the agricultural and sideline food processing industry rose 5.3%, down 0.5 percentage points; Petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries rose 1.7%, down 4.5 percentage points. In addition, the price of coal mining and washing industry rose by 0.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points.

It is estimated that among the 1.4% year-on-year decline in PPI in February, the tail raising impact of the price change in the previous year was about - 0.9 percentage points, and the impact of the new price increase was about - 0.5 percentage points.