Brazil'S Cotton Output Is Expected To Surpass That Of The United States For The First Time, Becoming The World'S Third Largest Cotton Producer

Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase in 2023/24, so the pace of export needs to be accelerated to deal with the surplus cotton. At the same time, Brazil's exports may be supported by the decrease in the supply of the United States, helping it to become the world's second largest cotton exporter.

The data released by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on September 12 showed that the global cotton production forecast for 2023/24 was 1.5% lower than that of August, and 5.3% lower than that of 2022/23. In Brazil, the supply forecast for 2023/24 will be adjusted upward by 4.2% to 13.8 million tons, but the supply forecast for India and the United States will decline to 25 million and 13.13 million packets respectively. In this way, Brazil's output will surpass that of the United States for the first time in history, ranking third among the world's largest cotton producers.

The USDA also lowered its estimate of global cotton consumption to 25.23 million tons, 0.9% lower than that in August, but still 4.5% higher than that in 2022/23. Among the largest consumer countries, India, Bangladesh and Vietnam are expected to adjust downward.

Therefore, the US Department of Agriculture lowered its global import forecast by 1.4%, but still 16.5% higher than that in 2022/23. Compared with the previous forecast, the forecast of Bangladesh, Vietnam and India is adjusted downward.

In terms of exports, the US Department of Agriculture lowered the export expectations of major exporters other than Brazil. Brazil's export estimate was increased by 550000 packages to 11.8 million packages, India reduced by 200000 packages to 20 million packages, and the United States also reduced by 200000 packages to 12.3 million packages.