Finance And Economics: High Level For The Stock Market.

In 2008, on the issue of recent stock market, convened a meeting of representatives of the political Regulatory Commission, the Banking Regulatory Commission, the CIRC, the Ministry of finance, the development and Reform Commission, the SASAC, some large brokerages and funds, some well-known private private crocodiles, and some large central enterprises.

The participants basically represent the major forces that can call the wind in China's stock market, but QFII is not invited.

The conference was classified as top secret, no more than 100 participants, and no news media to participate.

I have collected a large number of consultations through various channels and tried to restore the contents discussed in the conference truthfully.

You do not ask me where I get these things, because I will not tell you.

Smart people will naturally read the correct information from my text, and if you are skeptical, you are right, because a mature investor should doubt all the rumors from the non source market.

(to put it another way, the credibility of even channels is not necessarily higher than that of this article).

The basic consensus of the conference is the concern about the stock market crash before and after the Olympic Games.

1, more than 5500 points for high risk bubble area, absolutely can not be allowed to again through the manipulation of heavy weights to index the index to the region.

The speculation of some brokerages and funds in last year is an irrational way to make quick gains and instant profits. We must make a deep review of this.

2 and 4500-5500 belong to slightly higher but acceptable areas of valuation.

The parties must ensure that before and after the Olympic Games, the index should not be higher than that of the region.

3 and 3500-4500 belong to the reasonable range of valuation.

In view of the rapid growth of the performance of listed companies, it now negates the argument that some people once thought that the 4000 point was too high last year.

All parties must ensure that the index before and after the Olympic Games is stable as far as possible.

4, below 3000 points are not allowed under any circumstances, and the principal organs are obliged to carry out the "market support" for that point.

Otherwise, the relevant units and personnel will be accountable.

It is suggested that active measures should be taken before the index falls below 3500.

A number of related topics were discussed in the conference.

1, sub debt problem: in order to avoid the risk of the potential shock to China's capital market, the monetary policy will be restored from "tight" to "moderately tight" last year.

2, stamp duty: at the meeting, the relevant responsible department apologized for the urgent increase in stamp duty last year, but in the end, everyone agreed that reducing stamp duty is not the right time to do so. A short-term action to kill the goose that lays eggs will aggravate the large amount of money borrowed from the market, which is common in history.

Reducing stamp duty is a "strong drug" rather than a "tonic". It must be implemented at a suitable time, otherwise it will backfire.

3, capital gains tax has agreed that there will be no increase in recent years.

4, the size is not: the broker Fund said that they did their best in the recent fall in the index, but the cost of the zero cost seemed to show a greater desire to reduce their holdings while the coupons supported the heavyweight stocks. The collapse of the stock price led to serious coupons.

At the meeting, representatives of large and small non profit groups were forced to make a statement under the bombardment of all parties: even if the state-owned shares were reduced, there would be limits, because they could not lose control rights solely for arbitrage.

But this specious answer is obviously not satisfactory to all parties.

Finally, the boss said that the stock reform will inevitably lead to the reduction of the stock market, and we can not abandon the share reform because of the reduction. The relevant departments are studying the reasonable capital gains tax on the size, but there is no definite plan at present, hoping that the size can not match the stability of the current stock market.

5, financing: This is the most acute topic in the conference.

Since the large listed state owned enterprises are nominally placed under the supervision of the supervisory board, their backers, such as the CBRC, the CIRC and so on, will be higher and lower than those of the CBO. Even the central managers of some central enterprises themselves are ministerial level cadres, so the CBO can not manage them at all.

The final statement of the boss is: our country's education expenditure is only ten billion a year. Huge financing will greatly touch the social nerves and must be checked. If the enterprises do have financing needs, all over 10 billion of the financing must be presented to the boss at the same time.

6, the scrambling for private equity funds: a well-known private big crocodile said angrily: We carried out the Quanjude's inexplicable investigation. Then, the Shenyang, China COSCO, nonferrous metals, etc., which are on the coupons base, have been trading on a continuous basis. What is the difference between such a method and why not check it? Finally, a large number of small and medium investors are held up seriously. Is this value investment?

According to the Commission, some of the original values of the value investment deviated from some of the institutions last year were deeply hurt by the malicious speculation of large cap stocks. However, some of the funds that had already been put into practice were ordered to be reformed and the relevant senior managers were dismissed.

Finally, the boss said: the theme stocks can be fry, which is conducive to the active market atmosphere. Especially when the market is losing popularity, it is reasonable to use this kind of stock to make profit effect so as to stimulate the popularity of the whole market.

7, the political problems in some areas are not the keynote of mainstream development, and do not fundamentally affect the operation of capital markets. We must have enough confidence in all aspects and do not need to exaggerate in the media.

8, some of the large TV media hosts (actually refer to some hosts of CCTV2 securities program) are extremely wrong with their positioning. The role of the anchorperson should be "hosting the program" instead of "over recommending their own views", which has a great negative impact on the market.

The relevant departments should be ordered to make rectification immediately.