Tax Policy Or Changing Thirst For Textile Stocks Is Still A Long Way To Go.

In from July 2nd to 9th, the textile and garment sector opened up six consecutive days, rising 17.95% (the Shanghai composite index only picked up 10.14% in the same period), and took the lead in getting out of the haze.

Behind the index may be related to the policy rumors that the government may raise the export rebate rate of the textile and garment industry.

Help after investigation

According to the latest data, the 2/3 enterprises of textile and garment industry are generally in a state of loss or profit on account of the influence of RMB appreciation, labor cost rising and export tax rebate rate decreasing.

Zhao Meiling, an Anxin Securities Research Institute, explained that "from the second half of last year, the prosperity of the garment industry is decreasing from the perspective of corporate earnings, investment in fixed assets, export growth and domestic clothing consumption".

She further analyzed that "after the second half of last year, the gross margin level of the industry has declined significantly, from the previous 14% to the 13.4% level in March this year. The total sales revenue and profit growth both accelerated and declined, and the rate of decline in total profit growth was obviously faster than the sales revenue growth, and the loss of enterprises increased. Since 2003, the proportion of enterprises with loss above the scale has accounted for about 18% of the total number of industrial enterprises, but in 2008 March, the proportion has increased to 24%, indicating that the overall profitability of the industry has shown a marked decline."

With the aggravation of losses, the phenomenon of enterprise failure has also aroused great concern from the government.

In March this year, the Ministry of Commerce, the national development and Reform Commission, the China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce and the China Textile Industry Association have conducted research.

Among them, the textile industry association completed the field investigation of the 6 provinces in late March, and submitted the research findings and policy recommendations to the relevant government departments.

The report submitted to the State Council clearly pointed out that the "export tax rebate rate can be adjusted 2 percentage points" requirement, that is, from 11% to 13%.

There are also reports that "the range of textile and clothing callbacks is expected to vary, of which textile will be pferred from 11% to 13%, while clothing will be adjusted from 11% to 15%. In addition, the export rebate rate of viscose fiber will exceed expectations."

An industry insider said, "the final result has not yet been officially announced, but it is expected to be known in 7 and August.

Export hindrance policy or near thirst

From 2003 to 2006, the export of China's garment industry showed a trend of rapid growth. However, from 2007, the total export growth of garment industry fell sharply from 28.84% in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 17.37% in the first quarter of 2007. From the second half of 2007, the trend of decline has intensified. According to statistics, in the 1-4 months of 2008, clothing exports totaled 29 billion 606 million US dollars, and the growth rate has dropped to 9.33% over the same period last year, the lowest level since the beginning of 2007.

It is assumed that based on the introduction of export policy (export tax rebate rate increase), clothing export is mainly affected by export tax rebates and general trade. The processing trade is basically not affected. The total trade volume in clothing exports accounts for about 70% of total exports.

It is assumed that in the second half of 2007, export growth and sales revenue increased by 15%, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.76, and the industry income tax rate was 25%.

It is estimated that in the second half of this year, the tax rebate rate of garment exports will increase by 4 percentage points, which will directly increase the total profit and net profit of the industry by 13 billion 792 million yuan and 10 billion 344 million yuan respectively, and increase the net interest rate of sales by 1.18 percentage points.

Wang Qian, editor in chief of "first textile net", thinks that "the export rebate rate is raised by 1 percentage points, which is equivalent to directly increasing the 1% of the total export volume to the profits of the enterprises."

At present, due to the fact that the policy has not yet been announced, what is the reaction of the listed companies in textile and clothing industry?

YOUNGOR (love share, market, information) (600177.SH), a staff member of the securities department, admitted: "as the policy has not been finally promulgated, it is not easy to say how much the company's performance has increased in the second half of the year.

Although the export growth of the company is faster than that of domestic sales, it is still not large from the sales income ratio, and 30% less, so the policy impact of the export tax rebate adjustment will not be too great.

But it is certain that the impact on the whole industry is positive.

Another clothing manufacturer in Ningbo, Zhejiang, has a smaller share of export sales (600884.SH).

According to the annual report of Shan Shan 2007, sales revenue in Ningbo, Shanghai, other parts of the country and abroad accounted for 62.85%, 4.61%, 28.43% and 4.11% respectively.

The company said, "the impact of the export tax increase policy on the company has not been measured, but the impact should be small."

Shandong Hailong (000677.SZ), a staff member of the securities department, said: "we have not received formal notification in this respect, and the impact on the growth of the company is not well judged. Moreover, the proportion of the leading products of viscose staple fiber (which accounts for nearly 60% of the total revenue) is not large (including direct export and processing export), which accounts for about 1/3 of the total output. The export is also mainly about some new products, but the overall trend is increasing."

Lu Tai, a relatively large textile export business (000726200726.SZ), is enjoying himself in the plight of the industry. The company's net profit in the first quarter is still growing by 30.97%. A staff member from Lu Tai said, "if the policy is promulgated, it will be good for the company. If there is no such policy, the impact will not be great.

The steady growth of the company is not affected by the big environment. It is mainly due to the positioning of the high-end in the niche market, the scale effect and competitiveness of the shirt and yarn dyed fabrics, and the stable position of the industry. If the completion of the additional projects is completed in the second half of this year, the performance of the company will be thickened in 2009.

Foresight has not yet been dispelled?

"Export tax rebate can only alleviate the industry's difficulties in the short term, and ultimately rely on improving the added value of products to enhance export competitiveness.

Anxin securities Zhao Meiling analysis.

"The export tax rebate rate of the callback is contrary to the industrial development policy of the textile and garment industry to accelerate industrial upgrading.

According to the calculation of the first textile network, the clothing industry in the above scale? Script src=>