Textile And Apparel Stocks: Success Or Failure Depends On Investment Income.
All along, we all think that the textile industry in 2008 may be in a stalemate, but it is surprising that the textile and garment industry half year main revenue has not seen a big decline, maintaining the annual growth rate of 13.1% in 2007, the growth rate of net profit is also far higher than the main revenue growth, reaching 36.47%. Among them, the growth rate of income and net profit of textile sub industry is -0.44% and 37.85% respectively, and the growth rate of garment sub industry is 35.96% and 36.16% respectively. However, the net profit of textile sub sectors after deducting non recurring gains and losses has declined sharply, indicating that there are indeed problems.
Apart from the non recurring gains, we found that the main business profits of the textile sub industry decreased by 4.3% compared to the same period last year, and net profit fell sharply by 21.65%. On the other hand, the two indicators of apparel sub industry showed rapid growth, reaching 49.71% and 102.37% respectively. We believe that the rising cost, low-grade products flooding the market and low price of textile products, and the difficulty of shifting cost pressures should be the main reasons for the failure of the textile sub sector.
Exports continued to be dull - from the US economic and RMB factors, the export growth rate of textile and garment industry continued to decline, and export growth in the first half of the year has dropped to 9.69%, which is a relatively low level in recent years. Among them, the slowdown in garment export growth is more obvious, the export growth in the first half is only 1.58%. The sluggish consumer demand in the US has led to a decline in the number and amount of clothing exported to the United States, which should be the most important factor in the decline in clothing exports. The growth rate of clothing exports to the United States has been negative, and the growth rate in the first 7 months is -4.28%. In the first 8 months, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar reached 6.3%, which was a major blow to the export oriented textile and garment industry.
The growth of fixed assets investment is divided. In the first 6 months, the investment in fixed assets of above scale textile industry (5 million yuan) increased by 14.24% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 11.37% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the textile industry and clothing shoes industry was 6.3% and 24.7% respectively, and the differentiation was obvious. The profitability of capital is one of the important reasons leading to the differentiation of fixed asset investment growth.
The export tax rebate increase is only short-term good. In August 1st, the textile and garment tax rebate rate increased by 2%, which will increase the total profit of US $2 billion 586 million (about 18 billion 100 million yuan), the total profit will increase by 15%, and net profit will increase by 11.25%. Since 2008, the appreciation of RMB has been close to 7%, and the rate of tax rebate increase is difficult to offset the appreciation of RMB.
A big problem is that the growth rate of investment income has dropped sharply. In the semi annual report of 2008, the investment income of textile and garment industry was about 1 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of only 1.47% compared with the same period last year, compared with 1078.9% in 2007. The proportion of investment income in textile and clothing is relatively high, and the proportion of investment income to net profit in textile and clothing reaches 36.52% and 51.72% respectively. Because many companies in the textile and garment industry have chosen diversified investments under the condition of poor industry, in the overall depression of our main business, we think: next, the success of the textile and garment industry is due to the investment income.
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