Rebound Blocked Cotton Continued Downward Trend

This week's market speculation on export rebates has raised cotton prices to 15005 yuan / tonne line. However, as spot cotton prices continued to decline slightly, the surrounding commodities continued to fall sharply, and the market sentiment was extremely low. Short term multiple single positions resulted in a continuous decline in cotton prices to 15000 yuan / ton line. In January, the 14630 yuan / ton low point in the early stage of the agreement failed to support, and the innovation was as low as 14435 yuan / ton.

As of 22 days, the main contract in January closed at 14465 yuan / ton, a week down 380 yuan, while its position decreased 3570 tons to 153000 tons during the same period.

The total turnover of Zhengzhou cotton increased by 57200 tons to 554620 tons a week, and the total open positions were reduced by 19970 tons to 261460 tons, and the average daily hand back rate was only 40.32%.

Data show that with the continuous sharp decline of Zheng cotton, market divergence began to increase and investors' attention to cotton growing was increasing.

(000061, stock bar) continued to plummet.

Therefore, the latter focuses on the trend of peripheral commodities.

Capital changes are still the main driving force for the rise of cotton prices. Therefore, we need to pay more attention to the change of the warehouse volume.

Although the main leaders of the country are investigating the export enterprises, the probability of the late government's policy to support the textile enterprises is relatively large. Meanwhile, some cotton yarn varieties have risen slightly, viscose staple fibers have risen 400 yuan / ton a week, but none of these have been able to offset the impact of the double knot zero and Xinjiang cotton pport patch on the market formation. Traders are still facing certain sales pressure, leading to a slight decline in domestic spot cotton prices.

Although some people in the market are relatively optimistic about the purchase price of the new flower, this does not stimulate the interest of the bull market. Under the sharp drop of international agricultural products, the short-term market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, leading to the lack of active buying, resulting in the continuous decline of Zheng cotton.

Before the peripheral commodities are not strong enough and the fundamentals are not favorable, they will not change their ideas.

In the week ending July 22nd, as the price of cotton fell sharply, spot cotton prices weakened, and the current price differentials narrowed again. The difference between the index 811 contract and the CC Index 328 index narrowed to 129 yuan / ton, at the low level of the year. After deducting the premium of 400 yuan / ton of 811 contracts, the actual price difference was -271 yuan / ton, which is still hanging upside down.

In the same period, the spot price difference between September and the index narrowed to -86 yuan / ton.

From the historical data, the lowest price difference in the last ten years of August was narrowed to -341 yuan / ton. Therefore, although Zheng cotton was seriously oversold, it is still not advisable to blindly copy the bottom and keep it down.

In the week ending July 22nd, the registered cotton inventory decreased by 37900 tons to 65120 tons, and the effective forecast reduced to 10160 tons.

The total amount of registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts is 74860 tons. The peak of warehousing after the delivery of the contract in July has passed, but with the sharp fall of Zheng cotton, the expected period will turn to be active again.

Although the current market pressure is still as high as 58.87%, the current inventory must be completely outflows after the November contract settlement, so there is no substantial pressure on the 901 contract.

However, the current market has divergent views on the purchase price of new flowers, and the short-term sale of new flowers will not be very large. That is, the short term pressure on the forward contracts and the lack of popularity are the main reasons for the continuation of the weak pattern of cotton prices.

Technically, the main 901 contract fell back, the sharp fall in the position, the technical indicators showed that cotton prices are in a downward trend, the main 901 contract is expected to challenge 14000 yuan / ton short term strong support position, before the technical indicators do not turn strong, keep the idea of not changing, but we need to prevent Zheng cotton overfall rebound, concern about the change of warehouse volume.

(Ho sum financial creation)