Weakening Demand For Leather Is Beginning To Show Signs Of Decline In External Demand.

Influenced by multiple factors, our foreign ministry demand has slowed down, the support strength has weakened, and the contribution rate has been reduced.

In the case of weakening external demand, our domestic demand will still maintain a relatively fast growth and will continue to play its intrinsic growth momentum.

Export is one of the important driving forces of China's economic growth in recent years.

Since the beginning of this year, due to the constraints of multiple factors, China's economic development is facing a very severe international economic environment. External demand, which has played an important role in economic development, has slowed down, weakened supporting forces and reduced the contribution rate.

From the perspective of development trend, the international environment is likely to deteriorate further, and the external situation facing the future will be even more severe.

In the case of weakening external demand, our domestic demand will still maintain a relatively fast growth and will continue to play its intrinsic growth momentum.

From the perspective of development, our domestic demand will make up for the lack of external demand growth, so that the economy will continue to develop rapidly.

The weakening of external demand has begun to emerge.

The contribution rate of external demand has declined, and the proportion of net exports has dropped significantly.

From the point of view of consumption, final consumption has maintained a relatively high growth rate, investment growth has dropped somewhat, and net exports have dropped sharply.

According to the preliminary calculations of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter, the contribution rate of net exports of goods and services to economic growth was 6.9%, a sharp drop of 23.5 percentage points, and a 0.7 percentage point increase in economic growth.

From the perspective of consumption structure, the proportion of consumption and investment has increased, and the proportion of net exports has decreased significantly.

The net exports of goods and services in the first quarter were 7.1%, down 2.2 percentage points from the same period last year.

The growth rate of imports is faster than that of exports, and the surplus of foreign trade has changed.

Internal and external factors have exacerbated China's export predicament.

According to customs statistics, China's foreign trade import and export value reached US $1 trillion and 234 billion 170 million in the first half of this year, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year.

Of which, exports amounted to 666 billion 600 million US dollars, an increase of 21.9%, and the growth rate was 5.7 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. Imports of 567 billion 570 million US dollars increased by 30.6%.

The cumulative trade surplus was 99 billion 30 million US dollars, down 11.8% from the same period last year, and a net decrease of US $13 billion 210 million.

The trade surplus in June amounted to US $21 billion 350 million, although it was the highest monthly since the beginning of this year. However, in 2007 June, the trade surplus was higher than US $26 billion 910 million, so this year June still dropped by 20.6% compared with the same period last year, and a net decrease of US $5 billion 540 million.

Imports of state-owned enterprises increased significantly and trade structure improved.

Since the beginning of this year, the import of state-owned enterprises has increased significantly. In the first half of this year, the import and export of state-owned enterprises reached 301 billion 380 million US dollars, an increase of 32%, accounting for 24.4% of China's total import and export value in the same period, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over the same period last year.

Of which, exports amounted to 121 billion 270 million US dollars, an increase of 16.3%, accounting for 18.2% of China's total exports over the same period, and imports of US $180 billion 110 million, an increase of 45.2%, which is 14.6 percentage points higher than that of the same period in the same period, accounting for 31.7% of China's total import value in the same period.

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, the pace of imports of primary products accelerated significantly, and the average price of imports of major varieties rose sharply.

In the first half of this year, China's imports of primary products amounted to 184 billion US dollars, an increase of 69.9%.

The export of mechanical and electrical products and high and new technology products increased by 30.5% and 32% respectively, the proportion of total exports reached 56.9% and 28.8% respectively, and the textile and garment exports increased by 24.5% over the same period last year. The growth rate has declined, and exports to Europe and the United States have stabilized. The export of agricultural products has increased by 9.3% compared with that of Europe and the United States. Under the increasingly severe trade situation, the growth of exports continued to maintain steady growth; the export growth of "two high and one capital" products declined, and the export volume of crude oil, refined oil, coal, coke and billets decreased significantly, and the export trade of raw iron, ferroalloy, electrolytic aluminum, leather and other products also dropped significantly.

From the domestic situation analysis, the strategy of expanding domestic demand has achieved results.

In 2008, the pulling effect of domestic demand on the national economy will be more obvious.

At present, China's macro-economic fundamentals are good, its foreign exchange reserves are large, and its ability to withstand international speculative capital shocks and enhance its ability to resist financial risks is enhanced.

Consumer demand is stable and prosperous. The growth of total retail sales of consumer goods shows a trend of accelerating month by month.

The gap between the growth rate of consumption and investment is narrowing, and the pulling power of consumption to the economy has been significantly enhanced. Economic growth has shifted from the past relying on investment and exports to the situation of "three carriages" of investment, exports and consumption.

It can be said that our domestic demand is constantly expanding, and its pulling effect on economic growth has been gradually enhanced, which has reduced the adverse effects that the US economy will have to decelerate sharply.

In recent years, China's urban and rural residents' real income and fiscal revenue have increased rapidly, providing basic conditions for expanding domestic demand and increasing financial support for economic growth.

The accelerated growth of consumption has multiplier effect on economic growth.

In the medium to long term, the powerful driving force for consumption to stimulate economic growth will continue to be maintained.

In the past three years, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 12.9%, 13.7% and 16.8%, respectively, and the growth rate accelerated year by year.

In the first half of this year, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 21.4% over the same period last year. But if we consider the factors of price increase, the actual growth rate is higher than that of the same period last year. If we consider the increase of residents' service consumption expenditure, the growth rate of residents' consumption demand will be accelerated.

Therefore, consumption will play an important role in stimulating economic growth this year.

With the sustained and rapid economic development, the consumption capacity of residents has been further enhanced, and consumer demand has maintained a strong growth momentum. Various indications indicate that the actual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in 2008 has reached a new high in the past ten years.

It shows that China's high economic growth has gradually shifted from the production field to the consumer domain, from the foreign trade to the domestic demand.

The steady growth of new consumption growth has gradually become the most important factor leading to sustained economic growth, showing a strong driving force for consumption.