Cotton Consumption And Trade Volume Is Expected To Expand.
The United States Department of agriculture annual agriculture forum released the outlook for agricultural cotton on Friday. According to the report, the world cotton consumption and trade volume will expand in 2009-10 years, but the output will be reduced.
The consumption of cotton in the world was 115 million packages in 2009-10 years, up 2% from the 112 million 600 thousand packs in the previous year. From a historical point of view, the world cotton consumption will rebound substantially after the economic weakness period, because it will replenish inventory to meet the expanding consumer demand. If the world economy starts to recover in the fourth quarter of 2009, the world's cotton consumption will rebound in 2009-10 years. However, if consumption does not increase significantly, the current consumption will be overestimated.
The US Department of agriculture predicts that in the 2009-10 year, the world cotton trade volume is 33 million packs, higher than the 29 million 300 thousand package in 2008-09. China's imports will expand, but imports of most developed economies will be reduced.
The US exports will be reduced from 13 million 410 thousand packages a year to 11 million packages. As India, West Africa and Central Asian countries have sufficient stocks at the beginning of the year, they will occupy the US market share.
Global cotton production will decrease
The US Department of agriculture predicted that in the 2009-10 year, the world's cotton output was 107 million packs, down 2.3% from the previous year, the lowest level since 2003 to 2004.
China, Pakistan and West Africa are expected to fall sharply. However, output will increase in India and Australia, and the planting area in other producing countries will remain stable or slightly lower.
In the 2009-10 year, China's cotton output forecast was 33 million packs, representing a decrease of about 10% over the previous year. China's cotton planting area in the past 2009-10 years is 5 million 230 thousand hectares, which is about 11% less than that of last year.
In the 2009-10 year, cotton production in India is expected to increase to 24 million 500 thousand packages, with a growth rate of 6.5%.
Pakistan's cotton production is expected to drop to 8 million 900 thousand in 2009-10 years, due to a 3.3% reduction in planting area.
In the 2009-10 year, the end of the world cotton inventory is expected to be reduced to 56 million 200 thousand packets, down 8.9% from last year.
Editor in chief: Xu Qiyun
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