Garment Exports Fell Nearly 20% In March.

　　大宗商品價格上漲比進口量的增加對進口的貢獻更大，漲價對進口增長的貢獻是數量拉動的近四倍。

The first trade figures in the first quarter showed that China's external trade deficit in March was US $7 billion 240 million, the first monthly deficit in six years.

Both the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of customs have attributed the trade deficit to the exuberant domestic demand, and even mentioned that the volume of imports of four types of commodities, such as crude oil, iron ore, copper and refined oil, rose in March.

According to the calculation, these four commodities have stimulated the import growth of 15.3% in March, of which the quantity is 3.1 percentage points, and the price is 12.2 percentage points.

It is worth noting that, although the overall export figures in the month of March have returned to the same level in 2008, exports of clothing, footwear, bags and other typical labor-intensive commodities have declined sharply, and clothing has fallen by nearly 20% over the same period.

According to the number of respondents, the monthly deficit is likely to last for several months. "In recent months, the import and export volume is expected to be roughly balanced, with a monthly surplus or a small deficit."

　　大宗商品漲價推高進口

In the month of March, China exported 112 billion 110 million US dollars, an increase of 24.3%; imports of US $119 billion 350 million, an increase of 66%, and the growth rate of imports far exceeded exports.

In fact, at the end of 3, Premier Wen Jiabao had publicly hinted at the trade deficit that will occur in March, and the deficit in the first 20 days of March was roughly 8 billion dollars.

Zhou Shijian, vice president of the former five metals import and Export Chamber of Commerce and senior researcher of the Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University, said that the unbalance of China's economy and the recovery of the world economy has led to the improvement of the trade balance. "After the financial crisis, the recovery of domestic demand has been stronger than foreign demand".

Li Huiyong, chief macroeconomic strategist of Shenyin Wanguo believes that 3 reasons have led to a significant increase in imports in March: first, thanks to the recovery of the domestic economy, the growth of imports of raw materials has accelerated significantly.

The growth rate of imports of crude oil, iron ore, primary plastics, copper and copper reached 39%, 18%, 20.1% and 14.2% in 1-3.

Two, the sharp rise in international commodity prices has made import prices rise. "For raw materials, the increase in commodity prices contributes more to imports than imports, and the contribution of price increases to import growth is nearly four times that of quantity".

Three, the increase in consumption led to an increase in imports of bulk consumer goods such as automobiles. In March, China's automobile imports increased by more than two times.

As China's main import commodity, the import volume of iron ore in March reached 59 million 10 thousand tons, an increase of 13.5% compared with the same period last year, while the import volume grew by nearly 45%.

Shagang Group, one of the main importers of iron ore, told reporters in April 12th that the long term cooperation between Chinese iron and steel enterprises and iron ore giants has been basically implemented recently. "A considerable portion of iron ore imports in March began to implement the current spot price."

As the annual iron ore price negotiations have not yet been concluded, domestic traders and steel enterprises will reach a provisional price with the iron ore suppliers to ensure the normal operation of short-term imports, which is generally based on the current spot price.

The above mentioned Shagang people said that the spot price of iron ore to port has reached 150-160 US dollars / ton, which is nearly doubled than that of the previous long association price.

In addition to the increase in iron ore imports and the demand for economic recovery, another important factor is the early preparation of traders and steel mills.

As the international iron ore open price is expected to rise in the new year, and spot prices continue to rise, enterprises will try to reserve more.

The iron ore stocks of some steel mills contacted by Shagang are at a relatively high level.