People Say ICE Cotton: High And Narrow Shocks? (5.28)

The extension of the paction made ICE cotton mixed.

Overnight, the US dollar fell sharply, crude oil and some basic commodities rebounded sharply, and the popularity of commodities in the market resumed.

The ICE phase cotton trading led the market, and the funds began to shift to the December contract. This led to the rise and fall of cotton in the ICE period and the December contract closed 0.15 cents to 78.91 cents / pound.

The export weekly report released on Thursday night showed that the US cotton exports 354200 packs, slightly lower than the previous week's 425500 packs, but the shipment is higher than the previous week to reach 290000 packages, the overall fundamentals are still good. In the case of increased investment in the commodity market, the capital will continue to enter the December contract and maintain the strong contract pattern, if it can effectively break through 80 cents / pound pressure level, the upstream target to 84 cents / pound line.

Technically, in December, the contract was five, even the sun closed, and the cotton price stabilized on the short-term average. The EMA system maintained a good long rise. Meanwhile, the KD and MACD index continued to rise, and the MACD index red column continued to grow. The rally will continue. The December contract will challenge the pressure level of 80 cents / pound. It is recommended that the ICE phase cotton remain bullish.

Domestic cotton Wednesday continued under the pressure of policy, and short-term trading was the main market.

At present, the government's intention to regulate cotton prices is more clear. The market rumors that the government may issue 500 thousand tons of import quotas or sell more than ten thousand tonnes of national cotton reserves, and the government's policy of speculating on spot commodity markets seriously dampen the popularity of the market. Under such circumstances, short-term market sentiment is hard to recover.

However, at present, the domestic resource shortage pattern will not be changed. The textile enterprises will have great cotton profits if they have high profits. The cotton price will be strong in the future. In this case, the cotton price will not change in the medium and long term, but it will be repeated in the short term. It is advisable to buy short lines in operation and pay attention to the 1101 contract 17000 yuan / ton pressure level.

(Wanda futures Urumqi Sales Department Du Ying)

Warehouse trading continued to rise for a long time.

Affected by the sharp fall in the US dollar, the international market was strong last night. The ICE cotton was up and down, continuing the near weak and far stronger situation. The market maintained a tight view of the supply of the new year and drove the price up.

The plan to sell eurozone bonds rose sharply and investors' risk appetite increased significantly. Investors shifted their funds from the US dollar to the Treasury bond market to high risk assets such as stocks and commodities, resulting in a retaliatory rebound in crude oil and a strong rally in basic metals, followed by higher agricultural products and weaker relative soft goods. In the cotton sector, the latest US Department of Agriculture announced that as of May 20th, the weekly weekly report showed that the contract remained stable at 54 thousand and 900 tons, and the shipment volume increased slightly to 64 thousand and 900 tons. However, China contracted and shipped all showed a slight reduction. At present, with the shift of the market focus, the fund has gradually lost funds in recent months. On international news, last night, China said it did not.

Zheng cotton yesterday shrunk down, trading declined, although we still maintain a tight view of cotton supply in the future, but in view of the further increase of domestic agricultural market regulation and strength, the short-term need to avoid policy and psychological anticipation risk.

In operation, due to the increased risk of policy uncertainty, it is advisable for short-term clearance to wait and see.

(pioneering futures Dong Shuangwei)

European and American stock markets soared, while US cotton continued to fall.

Thursday ICE cotton July contract opened 81.84 cents, fluctuated between the 81.21-82.36 U.S. partition, and gradually shifted to December contracts due to speculative buying. Even if the US dollar fell sharply, the main contract in July remained weak, falling 0.56 cents, while the December December contract closed up 0.15, continuing to rise to a new high.

In July, the technology of the United States cotton received a shadow line, with a shadow, closed below the average, the center of gravity moved downward, short-term trend downward triangle, the possibility of short-term adjustment continued to be too large.

Basically speaking, this week's export weekly report shows that the land cotton contract is stable, so the fundamentals of the US cotton mill haven't changed much.

But one thing to note is that the peripheral market has rebounded, the export situation is good, and the domestic quota is also a great advantage to it. However, the US cotton monthly contract has not followed the rebound, which is puzzling. In the later stage, it may appear as the author has said before, and the contract will rise again after the export is completed in July.

On the domestic side, Wen Jiabao put forward strict actions to raise prices of agricultural products on the State Council yesterday, and proposed to rectify the electronic trading, and put pressure on some commodities that were too high from the spot price. The spot price of cotton is higher than that of the futures price, so it has little influence on cotton flower trend, but this seriously compromises the bull's confidence in continuing to lift prices.

Zheng cotton's contracts rose sharply in September and January on Thursday, but pulled back to the end of the resistance and ended in disadvantageous positions.

September contract closed at 16790, a sharp reduction in the warehouse down, cotton is mainly due to the increase in the promotion, and now continue to lighten up, the late September contract trend is very unfavorable.

The declaration of the state and the decline in the US cotton market in recent months will be suppressed today, so the operation needs to be played more often and the empty list can continue to hold.