Reinhard: December Contract Resistance 79,80 And 80.75 Cents.
December contract resistance at 79, 80 and 80.75 cents (5.28)
Business news May 31st New York
stage
Cotton: this week, the July 2010 contract declined from last week's correction level, but the essence still maintained a narrow oscillation pattern.
On the other hand, the December 2010 contract rose to a new high.
In December July, the price difference narrowed to 2.20 cents / pound in December 10. This is the lowest price difference since the first half of February.
Implied volatility of options fell to the lowest level in nearly two years.
Market outlook: the roll out behavior of the Fund (the fact that the 10 year July contract was rolled into the 10 year December contract) and the fact that the certified stock was still not sold further weakened the upside down of the December July contract in July 10 -10.
According to the balance of supply and demand, it seems that the certification inventory will soon meet the logical thinking.
But the question now is how fast it is.
This question is not only crucial to the further development of the rolling out of warehouses in December July, 10, but also to the relationship between the 10 years of December and the 03 months of -11 in the following 10 years.
Technically speaking, the short-term key resistance of the 10 year contract in July was 84.50 cents, with an important supporting position of 79.80 - 79.25 cents.
If there is a good breakthrough, the breakthroughs in both ends of the market may drive the market to at least 4 cents / pound.
In December 10, the resistance level was 79 cents, 80 cents and 80.75 cents.
The support level is 78, 77.20 and 75 cents.
The market (10 year July contract) remained neutral for a long time and the supply was tight.
Therefore,
option
Implied volatility continues to weaken, and market participants seem to give up the chance of sudden changes in the current trading pattern.
This may be a dangerous situation, because the 10 year July contract still has enough factors to stimulate the burst of trading area.
Us: Although the US supply situation is obviously tense, the US spot market has been more active in the past week.
The market generally believes that the textile mills will not have enough reserves in the next few months.
However, some cotton traders and some people holding stocks will also be uneasy about holding large quantities of stocks, because the price gap of /12 months in July is upside down.
It can be said that the psychological balance between buyers and sellers has filled the gap, giving hope to those who live on business, that is, the pactions in the summer months will be more active and exceed the earlier expectations.
China: on Monday, 10 years in September, the contract reached a new contract of 18350 yuan / ton, but failed to keep up the gains. It slipped all the way to the front resistance level of 17640 yuan. This resistance position has now become a new important support.
A series of news may stimulate China's two futures market prices fell by about 2% from last week's highest point, that is, India is expected to resume.
cotton
Export, China has allocated 800000 tons of import quota, and Xinjiang's cotton pport has been improved. The government has warned against the excessive speculation and speculation in the domestic agricultural products market.
On the other hand, due to the bad weather in different cotton growing areas, China's spot cotton prices continued to rise.
After the issuance of the new import quota, the textile factory's enthusiasm for importing foreign cotton has not diminished.
The total demand has been reduced to about 50000 tons, compared with the best delivery rate of 3 months ago, compared with 300000 tons.
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