Textile Export Growth, EU Debt Crisis Factors Can Not Be Ignored

China's textile exports continued to grow in the first quarter of 2010 1~4 months.

However, because the current international economic situation is still complex, especially the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis of the European Union, which has dragged down the pace of recovery of the EU economy and even the global economy, it will also affect the pace of recovery of China's textile exports.

Of course, we believe that the current EU debt crisis is a global economic recovery, and the possibility of the two global bottom finding is not great. As long as China's textile enterprises adopt various effective ways and actively meet the challenges of various uncertainties in the external demand market, the overall export of textile industry will achieve a resumption of growth.

　　出口保持恢復態勢

According to customs data statistics, in 2010 1~4 months, the total export volume of China's textile and apparel amounted to 55 billion 300 million US dollars, up 15.76% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 25.92 percentage points over the same period last year, a slight increase of 0.32 percentage points compared with the first quarter of 2010.

Among them, textile exports amounted to US $23 billion 108 million, an increase of 25.90% over the same period last year, and clothing exports amounted to US $32 billion 192 million, an increase of 9.44% over the same period last year.

Textile export growth has been significantly higher than clothing products since January 2010.

From the main export markets, the amount of textile and clothing exports to the United States in 2010 1~4 increased by 20.61%, an increase of 21.81 percentage points over the same period last year, and exports increased by 16.34% over the same period last year, an increase of 27.62 percentage points over the same period last year. Exports to Japan decreased by 3.67% over the same period last year, down 8.08 percentage points from the same period last year, and export ASEAN grew 37.23% over the same period last year, an increase of 45.84 percentage points over the same period last year.

In addition, 1~4 accounted for 15.53%, 20.52%, 12.39% and 7.24% of China's textile and clothing exports to the US, EU, Japan and ASEAN respectively.

　　歐債危機影響出口

In December 2009, the world's three largest rating agencies lowered Greece's sovereign rating, and the Greek sovereign debt crisis began to erupt.

With the escalation of the Greek debt crisis, the international market has begun to pay attention to the debt problems of Portugal, Spain and other countries, and the European sovereign debt crisis has broken out.

Subsequently, affected by the debt crisis, the euro depreciated sharply, and the European Union as the primary market of China's textile and clothing exports, the impact of the sovereign debt crisis on China's textile industry is multifaceted.

First, the devaluation of the euro to the RMB is obvious, which has a greater negative impact on the quotation and profitability of our textile export products; secondly, the European debt crisis will make the EU's trade protectionism more prevalent; moreover, the outbreak of the European debt crisis has affected the EU's economic recovery, resulting in the high unemployment rate of the EU and the weakening of people's consumption ability and confidence, which will eventually affect the growth of the price and quantity of our export textile products to the EU.

The unemployment rate in the euro area in March 2010 was 10%, unchanged from last month, and remained at a historical high since 1999.

Meanwhile, the preliminary findings of the European Commission in May 20th also showed that in May 2010, the euro zone consumer confidence index was -17.5, down 2.5 points compared with the April -15.0.

Moreover, the outbreak of the EU debt crisis has increased the international market's concern about the global sovereign debt problem.

For example, the total liabilities of the United States in 2009 and its GDP ratio reached 218.60%, while in April 2010 the budget deficit was 82 billion 690 million US dollars, up 2.95 times compared with the same period last year, reflecting the deterioration of the US financial situation.

In the 2009 fiscal year of Japan (April 2009 ~2010 March), the national debt has increased to 882 trillion and 920 billion yen, a new record high, an increase of 4.30% over the 2008 fiscal year.

As of the end of April 2010, the total amount of British government bonds amounted to 893 billion 400 million, equivalent to 62.1% of its GDP, significantly higher than the 53.9% level at the end of April 2009.

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　　全球經濟不會二次探底

Although the EU debt crisis has been widespread and even dragged the pace of global economic recovery, we believe that the possibility of a two dip in the world economy is unlikely. The outbreak of the European debt crisis is a tortuous performance in the process of global economic recovery.

First of all, from the global manufacturing situation, the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased from 56.8 in March to 57.8 in April 2010, which is more than 50 for tenth consecutive months.

In the major developed economies, the US manufacturing PMI in April 2010 has risen to 60.4, an increase of 0.8 points compared with 59.6 in March. In April, the US manufacturing output value increased by 1%, a second consecutive month increase.

Meanwhile, retail sales in the United States have also improved.

In 2010 1~4, the total retail sales in the United States increased by 7.10% over the same period last year, of which apparel retail sales grew by 4.26% year-on-year, 0.82 percentage points higher and 0.47 percentage points higher than that in 1~3 months.

It can be seen that the overall economy of the United States still maintains a good recovery.

Although the euro zone economy has been affected by the sovereign debt crisis, its economy is still recovering, but the recovery is relatively slow.

The euro area's manufacturing PMI in April was 57.6, the highest since June 2006.

Meanwhile, the euro area GDP grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2010, an increase of 0.5% over the same period last year.

Japan's PMI in April was 53.5, an increase of 1.1 points compared with 52.4 in March, a tenth month expansion period in a row, and a 1.2% increase in real GDP in the first quarter of 2010. The growth rate has been increasing for four consecutive quarters.

In addition, other Asian economies also performed well.

For example, Singapore's real GDP grew by 15.5% in the first quarter, up from market expectations, and its growth rate has been positive for three consecutive quarters.

Despite the political turmoil in Thailand, GDP has maintained a growth rate of 12% in the first quarter, driven by export growth.

China's GDP grew by 11.9% in the first quarter, an increase of 5.7 percentage points over the same period last year. In 1~4 months, the industrial added value of Enterprises above designated size increased by 19.1% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.5 percentage points over the first quarter, but 13.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

　　紡企應多管齊下積極應對

Despite the export data from 1~4 in 2010, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU still maintain a 16.34% growth level. But considering the lagging effect of the crisis, the export pressure of China's textile enterprises to the EU will gradually appear in the two quarter or the three quarter, so the textile enterprises still need to deal with it cautiously.

Specifically, exporters should pay close attention to the fluctuation of the euro exchange rate, arrange export orders reasonably, reduce exchange rate losses, and pay attention to the change of EU market trade policy.

In addition, affected by the European debt crisis, EU countries have adopted fiscal tightening policies. Therefore, textile enterprises need to seriously study the consumption mentality and consumption ability of EU consumers, and develop marketable products to meet the needs of different consumption levels.

The EU is the primary market for China's textile and garment exports. While consolidating the EU's market share, textile export enterprises need to actively explore other markets, such as Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa, looking for other export growth points, and creating a pattern of diversification of export markets.