June 4Th PTA Analysis: Terminal Demand Downturn &Nbsp; PTA Continuation Of Weakness

Zhengzhou PTA futures opened up and left low in June 4th, continuing the weakness.

Among them, 1009 contracts opened at 7448 yuan / ton, the highest price was 7448 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 7470 yuan / ton, closing at 7458 yuan / ton, compared with the settlement price in June 3rd, it fell 72 yuan or 0.97%, 518500 trading volume and 226632 positions.

From the technical point of view, domestic PTA prices remain at the concussion zone near 7450, temporarily waiting for the top.

In the upstream market, the market for the first time in the three trading days of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures fell on the 4 day of the Asian trading market, due to fears that China's efforts to reduce the economic stimulus measures will lead to slower economic growth and lower fuel demand.

Around 15:00 Beijing time, NYMEX7 month crude oil futures fell 0.23 U.S. dollars, to 74.38 U.S. dollars / barrel.

The Chinese government managed to revitalize the economy in the global recession in 2009 with a fiscal stimulus of $1 trillion and 400 billion. The current market is worried that the Chinese government will reduce the intensity of the stimulus measures, and the crude oil futures price will rise on the 3 day.

The US Energy Intelligence Agency also said the US crude oil inventories increased.

The price difference between PX and MX has been at a low level. MX (FOB Korea) has quoted $793 / ton, and PX (Asia) has quoted 885 US dollars / ton, and the difference between PX and MX is roughly 92 US dollars / ton.

Generally speaking, the reasonable price difference is about 180 US dollars per ton from the price cost of refinery.

From the chart below, we can see that the price difference between them has been at a low level since March of this year.

Therefore, there is a rising demand in the late PX, and PX's support for PTA needs to be improved.

PTA industry has high inventory.

Driven by the high profits of the entire PTA industry, PTA social inventories are at a historically high level. According to the statistics of China textile net, the current PTA accumulative inventory is around 1 million tons.

The increase in registered warehouse receipts has also verified the above view.

As of June 2nd, the PTA registered warehouse receipt plus effective forecast reached 39222 hands, that is, the PTA dominant inventory close to 200 thousand tons.

The PTA market in the future will face the process of de stocking, and in this process, there will be a situation of supply exceeding demand.

In addition, the traditional maintenance period of PTA is coming to an end, and the supply of PTA will also increase in the coming period.

The PTA price will remain weak.

The demand for PTA terminal is coming down to suppress PTA price.

Under normal circumstances, the annual 6 to August is our traditional textile production and marketing off-season, this stage of market demand will gradually decline, the PTA price pressure, it is expected that PTA market in the short term will be mainly vulnerable.

Judging from its seasonal trend, 4 to June is the peak season for the production and marketing of polyester products such as the downstream, but on the current situation, it shows the characteristics of the peak season.

It is mainly affected by the negative factors of the macro level, such as domestic property market regulation, euro debt crisis and so on.

And the real demand will soon come down when the bad factors go back.

From the quotation of downstream products, as of May 27th, prices of polyester and other downstream products have declined to varying degrees.

Eastern China semi gloss polyester chip market mainstream quotations between 9000 - 9150 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of this month dropped by 900 yuan / ton, or nearly 10%; polyester staple fiber market is still weak, business in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are more common after the empty market, orders are also lower than before, polyester FDY mainstream offer price of 11500 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of this month dropped by over 1000 yuan / ton.