National Bureau Of Statistics: There Is A Foundation For CPI Control Around 3% In The Whole Year.

National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Sheng Lai Yun pointed out that the pressure of current and future price increases has been alleviated, and the annual CPI control is around 3%.

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Statistics Bureau: the current price rise is still a structural rise.

The National Statistical Bureau held a press conference at 11 a.m. at 10 a.m. to announce the main indicators of the national economy in May.

[CCTV reporter] on the issue of prices, although the CPI fell by 0.1, it still reached 3.1%, more than 3%. Before many media, including some analysts in the economic sector, had heated discussions on whether CPI reached 3% or not. CPI5 month also exceeded 3% to 3.1%, will it enter the channel of price rise later? Will there be a slowdown in economic growth and inflationary pressure?

[Statistics Bureau spokesman Sheng Lai Yun]5 grew by 3.1% in the month of CPI, and we can see why CPI can reach 3.1%. We think there are two main reasons.

One is the tail up factor.

In May last year, CPI was relatively low. Last year, the price trend was low and high. In December last year, the CPI growth rate was 1.9%. That will definitely lead to a high risk factor for this year's price rise.

The effect of the tail factor on the CPI is 1.8 percentage points.

The second reason is that in the midst of the new price increase, this is mainly due to the increase in the price of food and its living class, and this part contributes about 90%.

At the same time, we can analyze some other factors of CPI, such as clothing and household appliances, and the price is decreasing. So we judge that the current price rise is still a structural increase.

On the issue of sustainability or possibility of price rise.

Judging from the situation in May, we feel that the pressure on current prices and future price increases has eased.

First, the price of the ring in May dropped by 0.1, which is 0.2% higher than that of last month.

The main reason is that as the weather improves, the driving force of price rising in the early stage of some agricultural products is weakening, like vegetables, the fresh vegetables in May decreased by 9.8%, which played an important role in the decline of CPI.

Two, with the deepening of the international financial crisis, especially the deepening of the debt crisis in Europe, some commodity prices have declined. For our country, import inflation pressure has eased.

Three, from the recent point of view, last year's low price was in June and July. Correspondingly, the high point of this year's tail is likely to be in June and July, so the influence of the tail factor will be relatively weaker in the third quarter.

From these aspects, we can see that some factors that affect the price rise in the early stage have signs of easing.

From the whole year, price control is around 3%, which should be said to have a basis.

Although the pressure is relatively large, but through efforts, the macro target is possible.